Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 230204 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
804 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update discussion:

The previous forecast for tonight is basically on track. Surface
pressures continue to slowly increase in the wake of the cold
front that came through earlier today with all precipitation well
clear of the area. Surface winds will have a tough time decoupling
through the night on the bottom fringes of winter storm affecting
the Midwest and these winds will prevent optimum radiational
cooling from occurring in most areas. Also, there is a band of
higher cirrus running from southwest to northeast over the Pine
Belt currently and this band will have a tendency to "back up"
further toward the heart of the region through tomorrow morning,
generally preventing totally clear skies in many areas through the
entire night. Not sure these clouds will be thick enough to
further hurt radiational cooling potential, but they will not help
it out either. Anticipate lows by morning to mainly range from
the upper 30s to lower 40s, although some spotty mid 30s cannot
be ruled out in typically colder spots that consistently manage to
radiate most affectively. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Tuesday: Latest rap and satellite analysis showed
the upper trough moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Plains.
The cold front was tracking across our eastern counties with the
rain east of the forecast area. Readings across the region were in
the 60s.

For the period expect quiet conditions as the upper trough axis
exits to the east as we get into a zonal flow pattern on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will build in from the Southern Plains.

As far as temperatures are concerned in the wake of the front
under clear skies we will dip back down into the 30s for tonight
with highs in the 50s on Tuesday./17/

Tuesday night through Sunday:
Zonal mid level flow pattern through much of the week will give
way to ridging from the west by Thursday. This should keep
temperatures relatively cool through a good portion of the week
with a gradual warming trend ensuing by late week. Meanwhile,
another storm system will begin strengthening over the
Intermountain West.

The models differ from this point forward. While the GFS/Canadian
have backed off on the strength of this system as it pulls into
the Plains Friday, the ECMWF still maintains better amplification
and thus better forcing as its attendant cold front moves into the
area Saturday. At the moment will lean toward the more consistent
amplified ECMWF. Despite the differences in the models, a strong
signal still exists in all model solutions in that a large
convective area will develop along the LA/MS Gulf Coast. This
continues to manifest itself further north in our forecast area
with run to run lessening with overall QPF. This is understandable
in the less amplified GFS/Canadian, but the better forced ECMWF
is also showing this. Will have to watch this trend in later
cycles and possibly back off on POPs/QPF if the trend
continues./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Expect VFR conditions through the period with only a few high and
thin cirrus clouds (based above 20 kft) streaming across the
region between now and tomorrow. Surface winds are currently from
the west to southwest at 5 to 10 kts and will remain this way
through the night. Tomorrow, expect winds to transition more to
the northwest and be near 10 kts with occasional gusts up to 20
kts not out of the question. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  58  33  56 /   0   0   2   2
Meridian      39  58  31  57 /   0   0   2   2
Vicksburg     37  59  32  56 /   0   0   2   2
Hattiesburg   40  62  35  58 /   0   0   2   1
Natchez       38  61  32  56 /   0   0   2   2
Greenville    37  56  32  53 /   0   0   2   1
Greenwood     37  54  30  53 /   0   0   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

17/26/BB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.