Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221458
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE
REBOUNDING NICELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A RECORD LOW OF 46F WAS
SET AT GREENWOOD THIS MORNING AND A FEW OTHER SITES DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WERE BACK INTO THE 60S CURRENTLY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS HIGH
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY AND MAINTAIN A COOL DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR
CWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS
MORNING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

AN UNUSUALLY COOL LATE MAY PATTERN HAS EVOLVED OVER THE ARKLAMISS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS
HELPING TO ANCHOR THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OZARK/MID
MS VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG LATE MAY SUNSHINE.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE
OVER NE LA/SWRN MS. PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.5 INCHES AND H850
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE VALUES ~332 DEG K SUGGEST THE
POSSIBLY OF AFTERNOON TSTMS THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY RIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS.
/EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH CENTER OVER N FL AND RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND LARGE TROF OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE TN VALLEY KEEPING WINDS EASTERLY WITH
DRY AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS SPREADING IN FROM THE APPALACHIANS. RIDGE LOOKS
TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 BY AFTERNOON.

DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S AND CAPES NEAR 1500
J/KG...BUT WITH THE INCREASING FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE
TO 30-40 KNOTS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ROBUST STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO EXPLOIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS
OVER THE DELTA AGAIN MONDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST
CONVECTION...BUT AS MAIN TROF IN THE WEST LIFTS OUT TUESDAY AND FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR THE
WEEK AS NOT EXPECTING ANY WARMER THAN MID 80S. INCREASED MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH VARIABILITY IN TEMPS AS
MINS ONLY FALL TO NEAR 70./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  86  68 /   5   3  10   9
MERIDIAN      78  54  85  65 /   4   2   9  10
VICKSBURG     77  60  86  69 /   5   3  13  25
HATTIESBURG   81  60  88  69 /  11   4  14  10
NATCHEZ       76  63  85  70 /   8   6  25  30
GREENVILLE    75  58  85  67 /   1   2  12  18
GREENWOOD     76  56  84  66 /   1   2   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/EC/26



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