Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 312049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH AREAWIDE WITH SPEEDS
SUSTAINED 15-23MPH AND GUSTS TO 30MPH. A BAND OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARE SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...INHIBITING WARMING EVEN MORE.
FURTHER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE CHILLY IN NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
MISSOURI AND THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP DOWN INTO OUR
REGION...BRINGING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL NOT DIMINISH WITH THE SUNSET BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED OVER THE
AREA AND PRESSURES RISE. BY DAYBREAK THEY WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOME BUT
WILL NOT BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...FROST IS NOT A
BIG CONCERN AS WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE TOO BIG. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING IS IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE CAA...STILL THINK WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BEING TOO COLD AND THERE COULD BE AN HOUR...MAYBE TWO OF
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY LOWER. WILL KEEP GOING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE. FOR TRICK OR TREATERS THIS EVENING...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S ARE EXPECTED SO
DRESSING WARMLY OR A JACKET WOULD BE ADVISABLE.

1030MB SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. AS THIS SFC HIGH TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 27-32 ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
FREEZE WARNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LEAVING THE ARKLAMISS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION...AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER US AND BOTH OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE 60S AREAWIDE AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE EAST AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE WEST.  /28/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
THERE SOLUTIONS BY MIDWEEK AS THEY BOTH CUT OFF A LOW OVER WEST TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS NOW INDICATE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY OVER
TEXAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE UPPER LOWS...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD./15/


&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WILL BE WITH WINDS. LOOK
FOR N WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE N HALF WITH PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
19-02Z FOR ALL AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MORE IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
FAR N...OVERALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 3.0 TO 4.0 KFT ON ANY
CEILINGS. /CME/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THERE IS CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH A SMALLER RISK
FURTHER NORTH. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 20-25% AND 20 FOOT
WINDS GREATER THAN 15MPH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WILL SEE
HIGHER RH VALUES DESPITE THE CONTINUED HIGH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS
CONCERN. /28/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      32  57  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     35  55  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   35  59  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       35  54  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    33  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     31  53  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>033-036>039-044>046-051-052.

LA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/15/CME





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