Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 010831
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
VAPOR IMAGERY A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS A WEAK CLOSED LOW
WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME NORTHWARD MOVING ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE
MOVING OVER THE CWA FROM CONVECTION OFF THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE
REGION WAS UNDER LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
594 DKM HIGH EAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED THE
NORTHERN GULF.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO
THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

PWATS WILL HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE 1.7 EAST
TO NEAR 2 INCHES WEST NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS. THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE WEST FOR TODAY AND FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE
LACK OF ACTIVITY IN MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS./17/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW
MEANDERING NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE RESULT WILL
BE THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING WEDGED BETWEEN SAID UPPER LOW NOW
RESIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...PREDOMINATELY RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THIS EQUATES TO TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
EXISTING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S...WITH LOWS
FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET EACH EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES BUT SOME PATCHY
FOG AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES 09Z-13Z. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER MOST TAF SITES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  95  72 /  12  10  18  14
MERIDIAN      94  71  94  72 /   7  10  18  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  96  71 /  12  11  19  14
HATTIESBURG   96  72  94  73 /   9  10  18  14
NATCHEZ       94  72  93  72 /  15  13  21  14
GREENVILLE    96  71  97  72 /  13  10  17  12
GREENWOOD     94  71  95  71 /   8  10  10  10


&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
17/19



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