Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 061630 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY.  ONE OTHER THING OF NOTE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING...THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THAT`S MOVING WEST TOWARD EAST MISSISSIPPI. AS
WARMING CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF IT AND IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER MUCH
DRIER AIR THE FURTHER WEST IT MOVES...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE...I`LL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVER MY EASTERN ZONES TODAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...COLD ADVECTION...WHILE WEAKER
TODAY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGHS WILL CERTAINLY BE
WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THE RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN
THE DELTA TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY.  OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR TREND ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERALL A QUIET SHORT
TERM WITH BELOW AVG CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH JUST A THIN VEIL OF CI OVER THE SE HALF.
THIS WILL STILL PROMOTE A DECENT WARM UP DESPITE WEAK CAA STILL
OCCURRING A THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BE CLOSE TO MEMPHIS. DESPITE THE
COLD START TO THE DAY WITH SEVERAL RECORD LOWS BEING SET...TEMPS WILL
REACH 45-53 DEGREE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS OUR NW DELTA AREA WHERE COLDER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AS THE
NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OFF THE SNOW/ICE PACK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
37-43 RANGE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SET UP. MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW/MID 20S ARE EXPECTED WHICH AGAIN WILL SET A HANDFUL OF RECORDS
SAT MORNING.

A MUCH WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SAT AS MORE SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN
HELP WORK ON THE TEMPS. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE INCREASE IN
THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL FIELD AS S/SE 925MB WINDS WILL OFFER TEMPS
IN THAT LAYER OF 7-9C. SUCH READINGS WILL SUPPORT SFC TEMPS 58-63.
LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT NGT. TEMPS SAT NGT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT I FEEL TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND FALL
RAPIDLY SAT EVE. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE RELATED TO THE COLD GROUND AS
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HOLD AND LIKELY WARM TOWARD SUNRISE. /CME/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
AFFECTING THE CWA. THE EURO,GEM,GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAD SOME
MINOR TRACKING AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES UNTIL THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HEAVY RAIN
SIGNALS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PWATS
WILL RISE FROM 1.4 TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH PUTS IT AT
THE HIGH END PERCENTILE AND NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY THAT TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MODEL QPFS AND HPC SHOWS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO AROUND
4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
PATTERN WE COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. CIPS SHOWS A 75TH
PERCENTILE ON SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SO EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR EACH DAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE EURO AND GFS ON TIMING AND TRACKING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. SOME AREA MAY EVEN REACH AROUND
70. LOWS WILL MOVE FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  25  62  34 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      50  21  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  23  59  33 /   0   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   53  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   7
NATCHEZ       47  23  60  36 /   0   0   0   4
GREENVILLE    41  24  55  34 /   0   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     44  21  57  33 /   0   0   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




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