Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231946
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
SOME ECHOES AROUND 10 KFT AND HIGHER. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR AS THIS PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO
INTERRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. IN SPITE OF
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY...AND THEN WESTERLY...SURFACE FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. /DL/

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. DRY NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN
CHANGING SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/


&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE....VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 3-6 KNOTS AND WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       45  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       44  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    45  75  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/26




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