Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 170126 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE E
TONIGHT. RUC INDICATES INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING IN THE SE
BETWEEN 09-10Z AND UP TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. EURO ALSO
INDICATES SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. GFS INDICATES GOOD
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295K LAYER...FURTHER
INDICATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. THUS...ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL/SE BY 12Z AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO 18-00Z. DUE TO SLOW NW
PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS...SOME DECOUPLING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LEFT CURRENT LOWS FOR TONIGHT. ONLY MODIFIED
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION. WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SE
(HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS BETWEEN 11-15Z THU MORNING.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS IN THE NEXT FORECAST. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH SCT
CLOUDS AROUND. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SE AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING. /CME/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CWA FRIDAY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES IN...SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. /27/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL
HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  70  55  76 /   0   4  16  14
MERIDIAN      37  69  52  74 /   0   4  20  16
VICKSBURG     41  69  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
HATTIESBURG   41  70  55  76 /   0   8  24  16
NATCHEZ       42  68  55  75 /   0   6  16  16
GREENVILLE    42  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
GREENWOOD     40  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/27/17





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