Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 292013
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon,
but has managed to initiate over southern portions on the differential
heating boundary at the edge of the altocumulus deck. Meanwhile over
the northwest, cumulus has remained rather flat in subsident area
behind MCV over eastern MS. Some convective possibility will exist
over the north during the evening as outflow from storms in AR
approach the area.

Only slight changes to the mid level pattern over the CONUS during
this forecast period. At present, the northern CONUS is dominated by
the westerlies and this should continue. Over the south, a large,
sprawling, persistent ridge remains locked in. In the ridge over the
south remains a weakness over the lower MS valley in the form of a
weak cyclonic shear axis. This axis has served as a focus for waves
dipping down from the northwest, as well as, waves moving on the
underside of the ridge.

Through Sunday, the shear axis will remain in place promoting at
least a scattering of afternoon convection each day. For Sunday
night into the end of the period, the ridge axis looks to strengthen
from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the lower MS valley/Southern
Plains, putting the area into more of a NNW mid level flow. While
the increased heights will mean an increase in temps, the northerly
flow will be conducive for shortwaves moving through on the eastern
periphery of the high and a chance for diurnal and nocturnal
convection.

As heights continue to rise with the building ridge, temperatures
will begin inching back up as well reaching the mid 90s by mid week.
With the moist ground from recent and expected rains, afternoon dewpoints
look to remain around 75 through the period. These values with the
expected increase in daytime maximum temperatures should lead heat
indices to approach 105 by Monday and possibly rising into the
105-110 range by late week./26/


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this
afternoon. Scattered SHRA with some TSRA will continue to develop
over the area through the afternoon hours, and this will bring brief
periods of MVFR/IFR. VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites
outside of any TSRA. Expect the TSRA to dissipate by early evening
with patchy MVFR/IFR conditions possible overnight./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  93  75  93 /   3  48  21  40
Meridian      74  93  75  93 /   9  51  30  41
Vicksburg     74  93  75  94 /   4  43  20  32
Hattiesburg   74  94  75  93 /  17  54  20  45
Natchez       74  92  74  92 /   4  47  20  34
Greenville    74  92  75  93 /  17  44  28  32
Greenwood     73  92  74  92 /  17  39  25  31

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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