Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS64 KJAN 300941
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night,

The subtropical high will persist over the ArkLaMiss today through
tonight and into Wednesday resulting in a continuation of mainly dry
and seasonably hot conditions as less humid air continues to advect in
from the east. Mainly due to the hot temperatures, heat indices will
reach 100 in a few locations. A few stray afternoon showers and non-
severe storms can be expected again as well.

We will see changes in the pattern begin to take shape from late
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong upper trough digs
southward over the eastern CONUS and eventually draws what is
currently Tropical Depression #9 northward through the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and then eventually northeastward and well away from the
forecast area. On the back side of the cyclone, less humid air should
be drawn southward and this will help to greatly limit shower/
storms, but temperatures will continue to be hotter than normal. /EC/

Long Term (Thursday through Monday)...The pattern change will
continue for the end of the week, with slightly drier air and a few
"cooler" mornings in the offing.

Thursday, a mid/upper trough will continue to deepen along the East
Coast with a cold front pushing southward through the Ohio Valley and
Midsouth toward our neck of the woods. A slight uptick in moisture
ahead of the approaching front should help provide for isolated
convection across parts of the area on Thursday, but limited forcing
looks to preclude more widespread rainfall.

Surface wind will shift to northerly across much of the area well
ahead of the front in response to the tropical system passing to our
S/E. The front itself is now on target to reach the area Thursday
night into early Friday as dewpoints fall into the 60s with a
northerly breeze. Deep layer moisture will decrease substantially,
with PW forecast to fall below an inch over the northern half of the
CWA by the GFS. This will limit rain chances to the southern portion
of the area closer to the front. Low temps dipping into the 60s will
be possible as early as Friday morning over parts of the Delta, with
many more areas expected to reach the 60s on Saturday morning.

The upper trough will quickly shift eastward, as a shortwave upper
ridge takes its place over the weekend. This will cause the surface
front to begin retreating northward back into the area. However, a
surface high positioned near or over the Appalachians will provide
cooler easterly flow into the eastern part of the CWA, impeding the
return of a warmer and more moist airmass into the area. For this
reason, low temps in the 60s will remain possible in East MS into at
least early next week. Proximity of the surface front during this
time frame will keep some potential for isolated to scattered
showers in the southwest portion of the area. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today into tonight. A few stray
SHRA/TSRA could briefly impact sites this afternoon, and can expect
the typical patchy MVFR/IFR category fog late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  74  95  75 /  10   4   5   8
Meridian      96  73  95  74 /  10   4   5   6
Vicksburg     95  72  95  74 /  10   4   5   6
Hattiesburg   95  75  95  75 /  13   8   8  10
Natchez       93  74  93  75 /  10   7   6   9
Greenville    95  73  94  75 /  10   4   5   7
Greenwood     96  73  95  74 /  10   4   5  12

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

/EC/DL/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.