Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 241015
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
415 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
Today through tonight....
An abnormally warm night will transition into an abnormally warm,
maybe record setting, day throughout the ArkLaMiss. Low status
clouds have begun to advect into the region from the south as
moisture continues to stream into our region from the Gulf. Some
patchy fog has developed in SE Mississippi where the lack of forcing
has resulted in lighter winds than elsewhere in the CWA. Expect fog
to become more dense and widespread as the morning continues.
An upper shortwave trough will continue to push through the Plains
and into the MS Valley region while an associated 996mb surface low
progresses across the Mid-West. This will help push a cold front
through the the ArkLaMiss. WAA will increase ahead of the front
pulling warm, moist, more buoyant air into the prefrontal
airmass. However, expect the atmosphere to remain capped ahead of
the front. Although mainly showers are expected, a few weak
thunderstorms could form along the front as it advances through
the region. Latest Hi-res guidance suggests a the front will be at
the doorstep at the ArkLaMiss at around 00Z.
Like previously stated, highs today will rival records at most
recording sites. However, one limiting factor will be prefrontal
cloud cover, especially at Greenwood and Greenville. Temperatures
will quickly fall tonight as dry cold air advects into the region
from the NW behind the front. Lows will fall into the 40s. The
ArkLaMiss should be rain free by tomorrow morning as the front
Saturday through Thursday...
Following Friday`s frontal passage, cooler and more seasonal air
will move into the region as surface high pressure takes hold. A
dry, but somewhat cooler weekend is in store with highs in the 60s
both Saturday and Sunday(though some upper 50s may be possible in
the northern part of the forecast area on Saturday). Overnight lows
on Saturday night/Sunday morning will actually be quite chilly
compared to recent lows. Readings in the 30s will be common across
the area and even some locales in the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area may see a light freeze.
The surface high will shift east on Sunday, allowing moisture and
gradually moderating temperatures to return for early in the week.
Zonal flow aloft during the weekend will shift to southwest flow
aloft early in the week. This will help shuttle disturbances across
our region through the early portions of the week. Models this
morning aren`t showing much in the way of organized systems in this
regime as compared to previous runs but rather several broad/weak
disturbances should move through from the Texas coast. Nevertheless,
it appears that several rounds of showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms will be possible from Monday through at least mid-
week. Both the GFS and ECMWF do agree that the front should finally
move through sometime in the Wednesday or Thursday time period, thus
putting an end to our wet weather. Temperatures during early to mid
week should remain mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.
After the frontal passage, highs will return to the 60s and lows in
the 40s. /28/
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR through LIFR conditions will be possible overnight through
early tomorrow morning due to low CIGs and fog development.
Moisture will continue to advect into the region from the Gulf
tonight, however a significant pressure gradient should result in
winds preventing significant fog development over most of the area
except those sites in the south and east where less of a gradient
is will be present. Low CIGs will be possible at every site.
Dense fog is more likely at KHBG and KMEI. Fog will quickly
dissipate by mid morning tomorrow as winds picks up at these
sites. Winds will be gusty and from the south throughout the day
tomorrow. A front will begin to progress through the ArkLaMiss
late in the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 82 46 59 34 / 6 28 0 0
Meridian 81 48 62 32 / 4 27 0 0
Vicksburg 82 44 59 34 / 10 24 0 0
Hattiesburg 81 51 65 35 / 5 23 0 0
Natchez 82 46 59 36 / 9 22 0 0
Greenville 77 41 54 33 / 16 20 0 0
Greenwood 81 42 55 32 / 12 26 0 0
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ056>058-