Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 040121 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...EXPECTING MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISPERSE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION...BUT THINK LINGERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST TRULY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IN MOST
SPOTS AND PROBABLE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY FOG PRECLUDES
MENTIONING IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOWS DROPPED A TOUCH IN A FEW
SPOTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE QUITE MINOR.
/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.  SOME MVFR...TO PERHAPS
IFR...VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO HBG
AROUND DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z...WITH VFR CATEGORIES PREVAILING
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-5 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /19/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE TO EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS IN THE SHORT
TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE COMBINED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BUT
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THIS FROM BEING AN OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE MAKING FOR PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. /EC/

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. A
MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT IN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US...WHILE AN MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD
MID- UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD. IN
RESPONSE AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA FOR THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEK. COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WILL BE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TO
THE WEST LIFTS UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN UPPER TROUGH AS
A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAINS CHANCES DURING THE WORK WEEK./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  76  51  72 /   3   3   7   1
MERIDIAN      51  75  49  72 /   4   4  10   1
VICKSBURG     54  77  52  74 /   2   2   2   1
HATTIESBURG   55  78  52  75 /   4   5   4   1
NATCHEZ       52  76  50  73 /   3   2   2   1
GREENVILLE    52  76  52  72 /   2   3   3   1
GREENWOOD     51  75  47  71 /   2  10   7   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/17/19


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