Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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152
FXUS64 KJAN 101725 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS MOVE INTO NE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BASED ON TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW FLURRIES AS PRECIP
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

SNELSON

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES SHOWING THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE WEST. WHILE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG ON IN THE WEST...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS SWINGING EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GET PULLED AWAY EAST WITH THE EXITING LONGWAVE
TROF LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WEAK COLD FRONT ADRIFT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS DRY...BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AN APPRECIABLE CLOUD DECK IN ADVANCE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. NO NOTICEABLE WARMTH FROM THE WIND SHIFT
TODAY AS TEMPS START OUT IN THE 20S WITH A CONSIDERABLE COLD AIRMASS
TO HAVE TO DISLODGE. WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT
TONIGHT AS MINS ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. THURSDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MANAGES TO
PUSH TEMPS FIRMLY INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S AS
COLD AIRMASS QUALITY NOT NEARLY WHAT IS HAS BEEN OF LATE./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT.  CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  37  67  39 /   1   3  12   4
MERIDIAN      48  30  65  37 /   1   3  12   4
VICKSBURG     52  39  67  39 /   1   3  13   4
HATTIESBURG   53  36  73  46 /   2   4   6   6
NATCHEZ       53  42  71  44 /   1   4  11   3
GREENVILLE    47  37  57  35 /   5   3   7   3
GREENWOOD     46  33  59  33 /   5   3   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN



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