Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 240846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
346 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Today and Tonight...A cold front, and the east northeast moving
showers and isolated storms associated with it, will continue to
shift east through the forecast area this morning.  As this process
continues through the mid and late morning hours, rain chances are
expected to come to an end across much of the forecast area by noon
as the front and shower activity moves out of the forecast area.
This lull in activity will persist for a couple of hours into the
early afternoon.

During said afternoon, a closed upper low and attendant trough,
currently observed on the latest water vapor imagery dropping
through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, will continue dropping
south southeast into the Mid-South region, before pivoting east
through the Tennessee Valley overnight tonight.  As this happens,
and as afternoon highs warm into the 70s, scattered to isolated
showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm or two, will redevelop
across locations mainly north or the Interstate 20 during the mid-
afternoon hours.  This activity will begin to dissipate around
sunset, but some isolated showers could linger into the early
evening across the Golden Triangle area.

Skies will eventually clear across the entire forecast area
overnight.  Cooler drier conditions will also have advected into the
region during the period.  As a result, look for a cool morning
Thursday as lows bottom out in the low and middle 50s. /19/

Thursday and Friday...Dry conditions are expected for the end of
the work week, as subtle mid/upper level ridging traverses the
area and a surface high shifts eastward over the Gulf. The ridge
axis will pass over the area by Thursday afternoon/evening, making
for a quick warmup over the following days. By Friday, temps
across much of the area will be back above normal.

This weekend into early next week: Mid/upper level flow will become
more zonal but increase in magnitude heading into the holiday
weekend. Continued low level southerly flow will increase
warmth/moisture across the area to the point that some isolated
showers will be possible by Saturday afternoon across the northern
half of the area. Rain chances will expand heading into Sunday as an
upper level trough over the northern Plains spurs on development of
a surface low across the Red River Valley which will track toward
the Midwest. With upper flow maintaining a significant zonal
component over our region, the associated cold front will take it`s
time sliding southward across our area Sunday into Monday. The front
will provide a focus for greater coverage of showers and storms each
of those days, though at this point there is some hope at least the
northern half of the area may see decreasing rain chances by
Memorial Day. Though a decent amount of instability is expected
across the region as this system moves through, upper forcing with
this system will be unimpressive. However, sufficient deep layer
shear may exist for a few more potent storms during this time frame.
Certainly for any outdoor holiday weekend plans, especially those on
Sunday and Monday, it would be best to have an option in mind to
quickly move indoors.

By Tuesday, the weakening front will stall across South MS/LA, with
a lull in rain chances over much of the area and seasonable
temperatures in its wake. /DL/


06Z TAF discussion:
Light, to occasionally moderate, showers will continue to shift
east across the area, ahead of a cold front, through the overnight
hours and into Wednesday morning. While visibilities will remain
at VFR categories, ceilings will gradually decrease to MVFR
categories just as the rainfall comes to an end. These ceilings
will rebound to VFR categories late this morning, and continue
through the afternoon hours. After the shower activity associate
with the front shifts our of the area by mid-morning, scattered
light showers will redevelop over sites north of the Interstate 20
corridor this afternoon as the upper level low itself bushes the
northern half of the area later today. Winds behind the front will
continue to have a westerly component, but will become breezy
heading into the afternoon hours. Sustained winds will be between
9-13 knots, with gusts between 17-22 knots possible. Both the
scattered light showers associated with the closed low and the
winds will dissipate/subside heading into the early evening hours.


Jackson       73  52  80  62 /  14   6   0   0
Meridian      73  51  80  57 /  25  11   0   0
Vicksburg     73  52  81  64 /  10   4   0   0
Hattiesburg   77  51  80  60 /  17   4   0   0
Natchez       73  52  80  64 /   7   3   0   0
Greenville    70  52  80  65 /  22   8   0   0
Greenwood     70  51  78  63 /  38  13   0   0





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