Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270814
AFDJAN

ZCZC JANWRKAFD 260827
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ABOUT TO PHASE
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE OZARKS WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN. ON THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

FOR TODAY MODELS SHOW THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS SOME PATCHY
VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF
INCH..EXPECTING ONLY SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST MOST PART AS SOME OF IT WONT REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WILL BE FROM 10 TO 17 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
LIGHT RAIN TO EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50
SOUTHWEST./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AND WARMER CONDITIONS ENSUING.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL AS
IT LOSES IT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT`LL TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALL THE
ABOVE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ESSENTIALLY EQUATE TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. VFR CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND STAY VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS AREA WIDE.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 8-11 KNOTS WITH GUST OF AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  39  63  44  /  15  5  9  4
MERIDIAN      61  37  60  40  /  18 13 15  7
VICKSBURG     61  40  65  46  /  14  6  6  3
HATTIESBURG   64  40  68  46  /  15  4  5  7
NATCHEZ       64  42  69  49  /  13  2  2  2
GREENVILLE    57  38  56  42  /  15  8 12  5
GREENWOOD     55  37  55  40  /  16 13 21  7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



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