Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 121147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH WARMING THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LARGE LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT AREA
BEACHES...INCLUDING SNEAKER WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...AROUND 800 FEET PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER...HAS RESULTED
IN SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW 1/4 MILES IN FOG AT
KSNS AND KWVI...1/2 MILE AT KMRY...AND LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT HALF
MOON BAY. VISIBILITIES ARE VARYING...BUT FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
SWITCHED TO MORE ONSHORE...WITH SFO-SAC AT 0.8 MB
...SFO-LAS AT 1.0 MB...AND THE WMC-SFO (OFFSHORE) GRADIENT MUCH
LOWER NOW AT 3.2 MB. BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST...EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH 60S TO MID-UPPER 70S.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST PROVIDING
THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NO RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING RAIN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. SHALLOW FOG
LAYER PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS
AROUND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS STARTING TO SHOW
4-5 SM AND MIST/HAZE. NO BIG IMPACTS FORECAST FOR THE MAJOR BAY
AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BEST INTEL SUGGESTS THE FOG BANK WILL STAY WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME MORNING FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE WITH
TAF SHOWING 6 SM.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NUMEROUS 1/4 MILE FOG REPORTS
OVERNIGHT FROM HALF MOON BAY TO MONTEREY AND SALINAS AS WELL AS
WATSONVILLE. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z.
THEN CLEARING WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:41 AM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER A BUILDING AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. BY THIS EVENING NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALONG THE COAST TIL 8 PM SATURDAY
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: R_WALBRUN
MARINE: R_WALBRUN


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