Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 131149
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
449 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:20 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE FORT ORD PROFILER
IS SHOWING A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER OVER THE REGION...ABOUT
1500 FT IN DEPTH. AS A RESULT...STRATUS HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND
THIS MORNING WITH A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 200 FT NEAR THE COAST TO
ABOUT 1200 FT OVER THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. IN ADDITION...PATCHY
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF FIRST OVER THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST STRENGTHEN AND BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...THE
INLAND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING
IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES MAX OUT
BETWEEN 25 TO 27 DEGREES C. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY. AT THE VERY
LEAST...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT...THE AMOUNT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND IF THE NEEDED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT
THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST DATA TO SEE IF THE
NEEDED INGREDIENTS BEGIN TO MATCH UP BETTER.

AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
THE SFO-SAC PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 3 MB. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR TIL 18Z. WEST WINDS 20 TO 26 KNOTS EXPECTED
FROM 20Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CONDITIONS NOT COMPLETELY CLEARING UNTIL
19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TIL 18Z. VFR FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:20 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

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