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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 200553
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1053 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVED THROUGH
THE DISTRICT LAST NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WARMED UP BEHIND THE
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY TODAY. LATEST OAK SOUNDING AND FT ORD PROFILER SHOW NO
SIGNS OF A MARINE INVERSION SO STRATUS WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE
TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW IN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND THE
ONSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. AS A RESULT WARMING WILL BE
GRADUAL AND NOT VERY PRONOUNCED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S
IN THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND MID 90S ON
SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATEST
ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM IN FASTER AND HAS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SFO BAY AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER NORTH. LATEST FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN TO THE SFO BAY AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR-
CORNERS AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BRINGING GOOD
WARMING TO THE INLAND AREAS.

SUMMER BEGINS AT 05:04Z ON JUNE 21ST...OR 10:04 PM PDT JUNE 20TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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