Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:53 AM PST TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO
40S NEAR THE COAST/BAY AREAS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
CONTINUING TO QUICKLY ADVANCE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP MANY OVER THE
NORTH BAY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK TO THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE 12-14 C BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE KOAK SOUNDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 60S TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A STRAY 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT
EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF STEERS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS TO THE PACNW COAST WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA NORTH TO CANADA. GFS SHOWS
PW VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH TO OUR COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS ALWAYS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG AT KSTS...BUT
CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IT IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KT 22-23Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:23 AM PST TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF POINT
REYES...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENTLE WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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