Tropical Weather Discussion
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450
AXNT20 KNHC 190631 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...retransmitted
rrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A developing area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 1000
mb low centered near 38N64W is forecast to strengthen during the
next 24 hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front
extends from the low center to 34N70W to the South Carolina
coast near 33N79W and is expected to extend into the SW North
Atlc waters  generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds
generally N of 29N between the front and 60W. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N20W
to 01N40W to the Equator near 43W. Scattered moderate convection
is S of 05N between 26W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery
over much of the Gulf basin this evening with axis along 86W. To
the west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails
between the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level
trough with axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The
troughing supports a weak area of low pressure across Texas and
a stationary front extending from Galveston Bay S-SW to the
coast of Mexico near Tampico. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of
92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The
front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface
ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida
peninsula and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this evening. Much
of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft...
strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery.
Moderate to occasional fresh trades are depicted on recent
scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The
next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean
Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the
western Caribbean early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal
waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly through the
next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high
pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 34N68W that supports the Special
Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from
the developing gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are
occurring N of 28N between 56W-71W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas.
Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends
from 31N45W SW to 14N61W and support a cold front analyzed from
32N29W to 29N34W that becomes stationary to 26N50W to 26N58W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the
front. The weak front bridges between two high pressure areas...
one a 1022 mb high centered near 32N37W and the second a 1024 mb
high centered near 33N21W. Finally...a surface trough remains
analyzed SE of the Windward Islands from 07N58W to 13N57W
providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms within
240 nm either side of a line from 07N60W to 20N43W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN



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