Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
728 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Warm weather with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan will
prevail this week into the upcoming holiday weekend. Increasingly
humid conditions will bring a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms starting Tuesday. However the coverage and duration of
rain will be limited so the week will not be a wash out by any


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High amplitude upper level ridge will keep us dry and sunny today.
The combination of a dry air mass with dew points in the 30s to low
40s and full sun could result in superadiabtic lapse rates near the
ground, leading to highs a bit above guidance. Lower 80s for highs
are a good possibility however increasing south winds will lead to
rather cool conditions for the lakeshore north of Muskegon with
highs only in the lower 70s.

Break down of the upper ridge on Tuesday allows a weak lobe of
vorticity to float through the area. Sfc dew points creep up and
afternoon capes of 500-1000 J/KG are progged. This may allow some
widely scattered diurnal weak convection to develop but the best
coverage should be west and north of our area near the sfc front.

The sfc front leans in from the northwest on Tuesday night but
appears to wash out as it does so. Not much of a low level jet to
work with either, so still only chc/sctd pops. On Wednesday it looks
like the sfc front will be oriented in a west-east fashion south of
I-96. Best risk of showers/storms should be near I-94 where better
sfc convergence and instability will be present.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Confidence continues to increase that the area will see a warm and
unsettled weather pattern take shape for the long term. We will see
a secondary ridge axis push east of the cwfa by the time the long
term begins on Wed night. A low level jet and approaching warm front
will be more than sufficient to bring a good threat of showers and
storms to the area.

The chance of showers and storms will not disappear entirely from
Thu through early Friday, but the threat will lower some compared to
Wed night. Deep layer sw flow will be in place, allowing for short
wave troughs to remain possible and touch a few showers/storms off.
Some breaks in the clouds will allow for some better instability to
build during the day.

The threat for pcpn will increase once again on Fri. This occurs as
another better defined wave is expected to come out of the plains
states, and push another warm front into the area. Continued srly
flow will ensure that plenty of moisture will remain in place. This
will last into early Saturday before the front and low level jet
push north of the area. A few showers and storms will remain
possible into Sun as the sfc low and associated cold front will be
on our doorstep.

We will remain rather warm through the period as the upper jet
stream will remain to our North and West. H850 temps well into the
teens C will support highs around 80 with some peeks of sunshine at
times. It will be somewhat humid with dew points expected to be up
around 60F.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions continuing today and tonight
with clear skies and south winds under 10 knots. Some locally
higher onshore winds possible at MKG in the afternoon and early
evening hours.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

The risk of marine fog will increase starting Tuesday afternoon
with the arrival of sfc dew points over 50. Lake temps are still
quite chilly with readings of 45 to 50. Otherwise winds and waves
are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria the
next few days.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

We will see yet another day of elevated fire danger across the area
with the warming temperatures and continued dry air mass in place.
The most elevated danger will be up north where green-up is not as
far along. Fortunately winds are not expected to be much of a factor
today. Winds will be a little more of a factor on Tuesday, however
dew points should be also coming up with the steady srly winds
tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture.


Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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