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000
FXUS63 KGRR 061116 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
615 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TO
LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WILL COME LATER FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WON/T PACK AN ARCTIC PUNCH FOR ONCE BUT MAY RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PCPN ISN/T ALL THAT HIGH AS THE ATM
IS RELATIVELY DRY ATTM.

A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME SATURDAY WHEN A SHORT
WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. EVEN THIS THOUGH ISN/T ALL
THAT GREAT AND ANY ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIVERSITY IN SOLUTIONS...
RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. OPTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS RAIN...
AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW.

MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN OF LATE WITH HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. THE LOWS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE 20S MORE PREVALENT THAN
VALUES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS... AS THEY SLOWLY BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH
BY TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2014

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE
IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO