National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGRR 032030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT SINCE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW EVENTS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...  MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT EVENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK... BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS LIFTING OUT...WE REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE FIRST IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
WILL PASS THROUGH LWR MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOWS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME SO IT MAY TAKE
AWHILE LATER TONIGHT TO GET PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

THEN AS THE WAVE ITSELF COMES THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING ALL OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX
ALONG/NEAR I-96 ALSO FAVORS NRN AREAS FOR THE HIGHER TOTAL ACCUMS OF
2-3 INCHES. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CURRENT SATELLITE
EVIDENCE OF THE DEVELOPING WAVE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE FIRST ALTHOUGH WITH A MORE SRN TRACK. RIGHT
NOW WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH. IF
MODELS STAY LOCKED IN ON THIS SOLUTION... COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
LIKELY SOUTH OF I-96 FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY NOSE DIVE AGAIN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST... THEN LEVEL OUT OR SLOWLY RISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIMITED PRECIPITATION AND A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT
COULD BRING US TO SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF WARMUP FRIDAY TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MAINLY NORTH OF I-96...BUT AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK SMALL AT
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 30S OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. IF
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RAIN/SNOW MIX
NEAR I-94.

CHANCE POPS STILL STILL LOOK GOOD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION. SUNDAY HAS THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR DRY
WEATHER WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.

ON MONDAY...FAVORED ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...WE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS OVER
THE AREA AND THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE INCREASED POPS
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE
FOR FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT AGL BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO WIND
DIRECTION COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

STABLE ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES ALONG WITH A LOW THREAT FOR ANY ICE
JAMS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUN
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HELP MELT A BIT OF THE SNOW AND PERHAPS
SOME RIVER ICE. SUBSTANTIAL MELTING IS NOT EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY MAY HELP ACCELERATE MELTING WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 40.

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE IS
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...HOVING