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000
FXUS63 KGRR 151759
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LINGER TODAY FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INLAND SO I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF US-131 AND CONTINUE THE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. EXPECTING GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH TIME AS MOISTURE DECREASES IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS EXITED MOST OF OUR AREA BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
AREA ROADS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FALLING
TEMPS.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN
AROUND -14 TO -16 C. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S WITH CONTINUED BRISK WNW FLOW CAA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING FAIR BUT COLD
WEATHER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S THURSDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN AND POSSIBLY WET SNOW BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. LOW PRESSURE AND A SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HANGS AROUND FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C
AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DROPPED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND COLD SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A COLD NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. THE
LANSING TERMINAL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBYS FALLING TO A MILE AND A HALF FOR 10-15 MINS AT A TIME.
AFTER 4 PM OR SO PCPN WILL DIMINISH WITH SCT SKIES EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIVER FORECASTS NOW HAVE 3 SITES GOING TO MAJOR FLOOD
STATUS...SCOTTVILLE ON THE PERE MARQUETTE...CROTON ON THE MUSKEGON
AND EVART ON THE MUSKEGON. FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
EVART IS CURRENTLY AT RECORD FLOOD LEVELS.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR THE DAM JUST NORTH OF REED
CITY AS CONDITIONS THERE HAVE STABILIZED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE DAM ON THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITE CLOUD AS
ASSESMENTS CONTINUE IN THAT LOCATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...DUKE