Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 252030
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM MISSOURI TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM... CONTINUING
THE GENERAL THEME OF DECEMBER 2014. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
A WEAK SFC LOW PASSING BY JUST OUR WEST ON SATURDAY.

THIS TRACK PUTS US ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH H8 TEMPS RISING TO +4C BY 18Z SATURDAY ALONG WITH SFC DEW
POINTS REACHING INTO THE 40S. MODEL QPF PROGS ARE LIGHT WITH STORM
TOTAL QPF UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH... SO EXPECT JUST SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND NO SNOW THREAT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
SHALLOW AND THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS TO OUR NORTH. THAT MEANS
LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.

IN THE NEAR TERM... LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL TAKE PLACE AT
LEAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
RARE LATE DECEMBER SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE DEC/EARLY JAN TEMPS. IT WILL ALSO FEATURES MORE CHCS OF
SNOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET...BUT COOLING OFF COMPARED
TO THE MILD TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRI AND SAT. THE SAT SYSTEM WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NE. LOW LEVEL NW FLOW INITIALLY ON SUN MORNING ALONG
WITH H850 TEMPS APPROACHING -10C WILL KEEP A LOW CHC OF SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MON AND TUE
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTH. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WE WILL BE ON THE ERN
FLANK OF THIS RIDGE. THE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW...LIMITING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE LAKE OF
AN ONSHORE WIND. A SHORT WAVE DOES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MON
INTO TUE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW WILL
NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR AREA.

LAKE EFFECT COULD INCREASE A BIT BEGINNING ON NEW YEARS EVE AS THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND WE GET INTO MORE OF A WRLY OR ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE COLD AIR WILL START OUT
SHALLOW...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE IN THE DAY ON NEW
YEARS DAY AS A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE BRINGS DOWN DEEPER COLD
AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE HAD. MVFR CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING A CLEARING LINE ACROSS ERN
IL/WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AND WILL THEN DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING SSW.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...THAT SOME OF THEM MAY TRY TO EXPAND BACK INTO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT NEAR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH AND WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...
BUT COULD HELP LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP. WE HAVE ADDED A 2500 FT DECK
BACK INTO KMKG AROUND 10Z FRI...HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY FELL IN THE
GREATER LANSING AREA... WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM THREE QUARTERS TO
ONE INCH. SOME TRIBUTARIES IN THE UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN ARE AT OR
FORECAST TO REACH BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR LOWLAND
FLOODING IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MAPLE RIVER... LOOKING
GLASS RIVER... AND SYCAMORE CREEK. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE CREST HEADS DOWNSTREAM. NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY... AND THOSE AMOUNTS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MEADE









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