Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251736
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
136 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure will provide one more fair weather summer day to
Lower Michigan before a few showers and thunderstorms arrive late
tonight and into Sunday as a cold front moves through. Fair and
cooler weather follows for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast issue in the near term is timing and coverage of showers
and storms late tonight and Sunday as vigorous upper low moves
east through southern Canada bringing strong height falls to the
upper ridging in place today.

Current GFS cross sections of omega look more impressive than 24
hours ago, although instability and shear profiles are similar.
Severe weather potential appear to limited by 0 to 6 km shear of
only about 20 to 25 knots during the time of peak instability
Sunday afternoon.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to enter the northwest
zones late tonight with some diurnal enhancement Sunday afternoon
along and ahead of prefrontal trough. Activity should wane quickly
Sunday evening with loss of instability and dry slot moving in,
with pronounced drying of the column shown in model soundings.

WE will have Monday dry for now, but some showers cannot be ruled
out as cyclonic flow and height falls continue with a sfc cold
front approaching the northern zones late in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A seasonably strong cold front will move across Lower Michigan
Monday evening ushering in several days of below normal temps. H8
temps are progd to fall to 4c-6c by Tuesday morning; Tuesday`s highs
will only climb to the lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night will likely
drop into the 40s in most spots. Temps will slowly warm through the
70s to near 80 by Friday. Lows each night will be in the 50s.

Chances for rain will increase Thursday night and Friday as another
cold front moves south. The short wave associated with the system is
progd to remain over the U.P./Northern Lower Thursday and so weak
lift coupled with limited moisture yields low pops during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

We`ll be looking at mainly clear skies during the next 24 hours.
Sct-bkn CI will begin to move over Lower Michigan later this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

South winds will increase to near 20 knots today and tonight with
waves building to 2 to 4 feet. Some showers and thunderstorms will
arrive late tonight and last though Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher wind gusts possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Up to a half inch of rain is possible Saturday night into Sunday
night. Little to no rain expected during the week. River levels are
running at to a little below normal and flooding is not expected
through the week.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Ostuno



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