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000
FXUS63 KGRR 150349
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
TO EASTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHER THAN THAT COLD WEATHER RETURNS
AND STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THAT BLOCKS A SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS ANEMIC. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TILL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AN AREA OF HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MOSTLY BELOW 700 MB.... WILL MOVE IN AS THE COLD AIR DOES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY AIR THEN MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING SO ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH THE
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST...WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN... THAT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-94 BUT WITH THE VERY
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENT WILL MORE OF A TRACE EVENT
THAN ANYTHING AND EVEN THEN IT WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH COLD
DRY AIR. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING INTO MONDAY. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  LOOKS LIKE THE WARM SECTOR WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST MI
TUESDAY SO I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES TO VALUES THAT ARE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY.  IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WORKING
IN AS WELL. I  INCREASED WINDS OVER THE GUIDANCE.   SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT WE MAY END UP GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH.  IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH WE MIX.  AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS
LOW.  THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER WE ARE STILL STILL A WAYS OUT FROM THIS PERIOD SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE.  THE GULF IS OPEN.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A COOLING
TREND.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
ARRIVES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AN THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 40S.  BOTH THE GFS AND HIGH RES EURO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO SO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRATUS
DECK BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. WEST WINDS SHOULD GO
NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL SITES WITH CRESTS WORKING
THEIR WAY DOWN THE RIVERS.  ALSO LOCAL RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR STAGES TO REMAIN ELEVATED.  OPEN AREAS WERE SEEN ON
THE GRAND RIVER AROUND COMSTOCK PARK.  EASTMANVILLE IS SHOWING WATER
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.  THE SUN TODAY COMBINED WITH THE RISING
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT DECREASING ICE ON THE RIVERS.  THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE ICE TO START MOVING THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOMORROW.  IF THAT OCCURS WE COULD SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE WATER
LEVELS.

WE COOL BACK DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY FALL TO 20 DEGREES OR LESS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME ICE
INCREASING. THE WARM UP NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND
MELTING ICE.  SO OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT A NET LOSS OF ICE WILL
OCCUR AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THE SPIKE IN THE RUNOFF TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MAY SUPPORT THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES.  AT
THIS POINT QPF LOOKS LIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE CONTRIBUTION TO
ANY RUNOFF.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MJS