


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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293 FXUS63 KGRR 120530 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of strong/severe storms tonight/Saturday - More storms possible middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Chance of strong/severe storms tonight/Saturday Radar shows a few light rain showers moving across the cwa. Mesoanalysis indicated a lot of juice remains in place. SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg south of I-96, but only 20 kts of shear. Additionally, a weak frontal boundary was draped over far southern Lower, but creeping northward. In many respects, this is the quintessential Michigan summer environment. We`re sitting on abundant moisture and instability and just looking for a catalyst for storm initiation. We may have to wait until later tonight for that to occur. While it`s possible that a storm or two could develop this afternoon along the frontal boundary or even in the presence of outflow boundaries from this morning`s convection...CAMs point toward storms rolling eastward from Iowa/Illinois later this evening 3z-6z ahead of an upper short wave that would interact with the weak boundary drifting northward through the cwa. This would mostly affect the northern/northwest half of the cwa. Despite instability waning this evening, the low level jet will be increasing which will increase shear to 30-35kts. Thus, it`s possible that a few storms tonight could be strong, perhaps severe. Heavy rainfall remains a threat too due to precipitable water values aoa 2 inches. A severe threat remains for Saturday too. SBCAPE is progd to be aoa 2500 j/kg along with 30 kts of shear. Additionally, a cold front over Wisconsin will be pushed east by a stronger upper trough. However, if convection develops, it will likely be along a prefrontal trough after 17z across the southeast cwa. If that occurs, severe storms are quite possible with torrential rain and strong winds; the eastern cwa remains in a Slight Risk for severe storms. Once the cold front pushes east Saturday night, we`ll see a few days of dry weather. - More storms possible middle of next week Once the high that builds over the Great Lakes Sunday moves east Tuesday, a weak trough/warm front will move north across the cwa Wednesday, ahead of low pressure in the Plains. We see a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms with that boundary Wednesday/Wednesday night. It`s early yet to determine if a severe threat will develop with that boundary, but it`s possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Scattered thunderstorms and MVFR conditions will be across Lake Michigan and near MKG through about 08Z but chances of thunder in other areas of western Lower Michigan are low overnight. Some light fog could also bring patchy MVFR conditions through sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to flare up Saturday afternoon over roughly the eastern half of Lower Michigan with some isolated IFR conditions in heavy rain along with winds gusting over 30 knots and small hall in stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Generally expecting 1 to 3 ft waves during the weekend, though Saturday could sneak into 2 to 4 ft and moderate swim risk from Grand Haven and north with southwest 10-20 knot winds. Thunderstorms this afternoon in Wisconsin/Illinois will cross Lake Michigan late this evening but will gradually weaken. However, they could bring wind shifts and gusts over 30 knots. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...CAS