Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A GENERALLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND
60 OR EVEN IN THE 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEEK DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NW CWFA
INCLUDING LUDINGTON THROUGH 06Z PER LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. AFTER 06Z WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NRN CWFA AS THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE
HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE SRN CWFA DRY OVERNIGHT WHERE DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVAIL AND LIMIT THE PRECIP THREAT TO MAINLY JUST A CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH MORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER NOW MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE ONLY REAL FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT/SAT AND CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND MID EVENING ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXISTS AT 19Z FROM NEAR GREEN BAY TO WEST OF MILWAUKEE.
THE EXPECTATION CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE WHOLE LINE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ALSO SOUTH AS A PART OF
THE TROUGH DIGS. LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES WITH TIME...AND
THE SHOWERS WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HERE.

WE EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRI...BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AS IT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. WE WILL THEN SEE CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. THE FRI NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM HAS A LOT LESS UPPER
SUPPORT IN OUR AREA...SO WE CONTINUE TO RIDE A DRY FCST FOR THAT
TIME FRAME.

CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM NW TO SE AS THE
SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IT WOULD SEEM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE WET AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR HALLOWEEN.

WE SEEM TO HAVE A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ACTUALLY THIS
SEEMS A TOUCH UNUSUAL TO ME... TYPICALLY THE SPLIT IS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE JET IS UNIFIED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... IN THIS CASE
THE SPLIT IS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EVEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. IF
THESE TWO STREAMS OF AIR DO NOT MERGE WITH TIME... THAT WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING EITHER TOO WARM OR TOO COLD. THE
OTHER OUTCOME OF THIS IS WE GET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WITH SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO FEED THEM.

OUR SHORT STORY IS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST SHEARS
INTO TWO WAVES... THE FIRST ONE GOES NORTH OF THE CANADA BORDER
AND GIVES US A BRIEF PUSH OF COOLER AIR SUNDAY. THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPS A
DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID PART OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THIS MAY EVEN CLOSE OFF AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
DECENT GULF INFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALL OF
THIS TELLS ME WE HAVE HAVE A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY / TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THAT WOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE TOO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND WITH IT
SO WE MAY SEE GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MON TO WED TIME
FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PACIFIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY WELL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SNOW JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT SINCE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME LOWER CIGS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FT COULD IMPACT MKG AND
POSSIBLY GRR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN GRR. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT BY 12Z FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TO MOSTLY VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS CIGS OF 3000-4000 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LK MI EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
MKG BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS THEY MOVE EAST SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WE DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THE PERIOD OF LATER FRI NIGHT AND MORE SO SAT AND BEYOND LOOKS
LIKE THE PERIOD IN WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHCS OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND
MON/ WILL INVOLVE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EVEN
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUE/WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ






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