Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011512
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 70 WILL BE WELL BELOW THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE UP AROUND 80. A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND ON TAP. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SW CORNER...AND ALONG THE U.S.-131 CORRIDOR NORTH OF KGRR. WE
EXPECT THAT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND AS HEATING
TAKES PLACE AND EARLY JULY SUN ANGLE SHOULD DO A NUMBER ON THE
MOISTURE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 5K FEET WILL CAP ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE IS CLOUD COVER. AS
OF 300AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH FLOW HAS PUSHED THE CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY TO
NEAR A SOUTH HAVEN TO KALAMAZOO LINE. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SOCKED IN
WITH LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY BELOW 1000FT.

THE NAM 950MB MOISTURE PROG HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN INLAND...BUT THE NAM INDICATES LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE
LAKE ESPECIALLY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH ALL DAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST GOING...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

CLOUDS WILL DICTATE HIGHS FOR TODAY OBVIOUSLY AND WENT AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A WIND OFF THE
WATER.

THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL RH MODEL PROGS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT TO COVER THIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS NUDGE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MAY TRY TO STRETCH
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED
JUL 1 2015

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAA TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY.

SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS INCLUDING LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDS
INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST
OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY. LOWERED POPS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500FT AND 900FT. FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRYING TO TREND VFR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS AS
WELL AS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT SUGGEST
THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OR REAPPEAR TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT
HAVE MAINTAINED A VFR FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NRN TWO MARINE ZONES
AND ALSO A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE ADJOINING COUNTIES. A
SHIP OB OFF OF LITTLE SABLE POINT REPORTING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG
WITH THE BUOY OFF OF LUDINGTON REPORTING ALMOST 5 FT WAVES
NECESSITATED THE HEADLINES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OFF
OF A LONG FETCH AND MAYBE SOME SHORELINE CONVERGENCE WITH THE NNW
FLOW.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AROUND RIGHT
NOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR IONIA... COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO...
AND NEW RICHMOND... AS RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES... BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP
BEING WELL UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST DRAINAGE BASINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON RIVERS IS EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ848-
     849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ


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