Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 281800
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

KGRR/RGNL RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOWERS AND BRISK
ENE WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY TSTORMS FROM THE FCST DUE TO INSUFFICIENT
SFC OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY OR STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OVER OUR EASTERN FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN.
HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC OF MORE RAIN SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS
AND LOW SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 30S WILL MAKE THIS ANOTHER COOL RAIN
EVENT.

MONDAY WOULD APPEAR TO OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PLEASANT/DRY
WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SLIDES
SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY MAY BE NICE AS WELL... AND SOMEWHAT WARM...
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE GRTLKS REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THIS
INCOMING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT HOLDS
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE LONG TERM WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND FROM LK MI
WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING SFC CYCLONE.

CHILLY AND SHOWERY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET NEXT WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH COLD POOL/UPR LOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...ARE NOW SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 1730Z. VFR
CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO MOVE OVER THE I-96 TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITHOUT MUCH
RAIN.

MORE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE ALSO SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS SNEAK UP
TO AT LEAST THE I-94 TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD AND
AFTER 18Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS


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