Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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299
FXUS63 KGRR 261144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES THROUGH 11AM. A BAGGY GRADIENT JUST BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...LAST NIGHT/S RAIN AND SOME LINGERING HIGHER DEW
POINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
I-94 COUNTIES THROUGH 800AM AS THE STRATUS TRUDGES SOUTH.

EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING AS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS KICK IN AND ADVECT IN DRIER DEW POINTS. BY MID MORNING AN
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE NOTED. RAN THE HEADLINE THROUGH 11AM HOWEVER
TO GIVE US A BUFFER IF IT LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN AND HIGHS OF ONLY 50-55 ARE
EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
CEILINGS LIFT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LIKELY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SKINNY BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS IN BETWEEN DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND THE DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT/TIMING OF CLEARING TONIGHT AND ALSO
HOW MUCH THE WINDS DROP OFF... BUT SOME PATCHY FROST APPEARS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.

AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHEARS OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
SEND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS WE REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR MASS WELL NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TWO SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH IN THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL
BE AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START...ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PLAINS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE LOW...CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AND HAVE MATCHED NEIGHBORS WITH VERY
LOW POPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 PCT.

A DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL LIKELY ERODE
PRECIPITATION THAT TRIES TO PUSH IN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AT LEAST
INITIALLY.

FEEL LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
WILL COME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE REGION.
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN TOTALS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF IS STILL FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE
GFS. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OUT ON DAY 6 AND DAY 7.

FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER OVERALL...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

STRATUS AND FOG SETTLED INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE MORNING. THE FOG
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES...BUT THE STRATUS
WILL REMAIN. VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT MANY TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IT APPEARS THE I-96 TAF
SITES WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR...WHILE THE I-94 SITES REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AROUND 10 KNOTS.

BOTTOM LINE...POOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TRENDING TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ERODE THE FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW THE NEXT DAYS SHOULD KEEP WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WAVES TODAY NEAR BIG SABLE COULD BE NEAR 4 FEET
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT... SO SOME AREAS OF STANDING WATER MAY LINGER THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS/STREAMS MAY SEE RISES BUT PROBABLY NOT
MUCH IMPACT ON THE LARGER RIVERS DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE



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