Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 200534
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

A high pressure ridge will continue in control of the weather
pattern through the rest of the week and weekend. Temperatures
will continue to undergo a gradual moderating trend through the
weekend. The next chance for rain will not come until the middle
portion of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Minimal short term fcst concerns as high pressure will continue to
dominate the wx pattern through Saturday and produce mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will continue to undergo a
moderating trend through Saturday.

Skies will remain mostly clear through tonight. The 12z nam cu
scheme suggests a few fair wx cu may develop toward midday Friday
that would dissipate quickly by early eve. Some high clouds will
also likely move in from the sw tomorrow as suggested by 12z
guidance consensus time height rh x-sections.

Pcpn associated with a low pressure system over the lower Ohio
Valley/mid Atlantic regions Friday night and Saturday will stay
se of our fcst area. Our area will get nothing more than a little
bit of mid to high level cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Narrow upper ridge across the central Great Lakes on Sunday and
Monday begins to break down by Tuesday. Showers could move in as
early as Monday night, but the chances are low enough to leave out
of the forecast for now.

Showers and a few thunderstorms may linger through Wednesday and
Thursday as sfc boundary becomes aligned with upper flow and stalls
just south of Lower Michigan with at least one sfc wave moving along
it. We will carry chance POPs  along with slight chance for
thunderstorms from Tuesday to Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri May 20 2016

High clouds will move across the TAF sites today as low pressue
moves across the Ohio Valley. VFR is expected through the period.
Winds at MKG will become west this afternoon as a lake breeze
develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure will result in fair weather with minimal wind speeds
mainly below 10 kts and waves heights below 2 feet through Friday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Precipitation forecasts have not changed much with the bulk of
moisture remaining south of Lower Michigan. Rivers are falling
rather steadily with Maple Rapids being the only site that will
remain above advisory criteria. This advisory should be able to
be dropped sometime tomorrow. We have to go beyond the next 5 days
to find any decent chances for rain. Unfortunately, precipitation
may return by the middle of next week and stretch into Memorial
Day weekend.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Laurens



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