Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161741
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
141 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

High pressure will bring fair and warm weather today and into
Sunday. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms by
Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Surface and upper ridging continues to bring fair and warm weather
into Sunday, but moisture is streaming north today and tomorrow.
Showers currently over Wisconsin will have to be watched today but
radar trends show very little eastward movement so far.

The upper ridge is being flattened a bit by a northern stream
shortwave trough moving through Canada. A weak cold front moves
into western zones by Sunday afternoon and there is enough
instability to allow for a few thunderstorms. The front is
washing out by Monday with only a slight chance of showers across
the east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Mild weather will continue through the long term. A short wave
trough is progd to move across the state Monday night and Tuesday
and we may see some light rain from it. However, the trough isn`t
strong and the likelihood of seeing significant rainfall is low.
Latest peek at the US drought monitor shows that the southern half
of the cwa east of US-131 is in the D0 category, which is abnormally
dry. Above normal temperatures through the long term will only make
things worse.

Another weak short wave moves through Wednesday so again we may see
some light rain or a storm, but most locations will probably be dry.

A large upper ridge will build over the eastern US late in the
period which will act to increase temps over the region.

Overall, highs will be well above normal in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows around 60 through the period. We really don`t see much
more than a 30 percent chance of rain, mostly across the southern
cwa and even less of a chance of rain across the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

High confidence for VFR conditions through 06Z. A scattered cloud
layer around 4500 ft AGL will affect most of the terminals this
afternoon, with the possible exception of MKG. These clouds will
dissipate around sunset.

There is a possibility for fog after 10Z at the LAN...BTL...and
JXN terminals, but certainty is limited. Visibility could briefly
drop below 3SM at JXN, but otherwise no IFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

South winds will kick up 2 to 4 foot waves north of Pentwater
today otherwise conditions should be favorable through the
weekend.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Dry weather continues with no concerns for area rivers.

A cold front will bring chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. Widespread precipitation
is not likely, as the front continues to weaken and the best
support for rainfall is well off to the north. Another weak system
brings additional chances for light precipitation Monday night.

Overall rainfall amounts through the week are forecast at one-half
an inch or less.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Ostuno



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