Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 301928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 94. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OFF TO OUR SOUTH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT/S RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DAMP WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. WE SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S AGAIN. WE WILL PUSH TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.

AS FOR THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT
AS AN 850MB WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS SEEN ALONG I-94 AT 850MB/S WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DECENT RAIN RATES FOR A TIME. AN 850MB LLJ INTERSECTS THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE STATE.
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE (I-96).

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. HAVE 40-50 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS. RAIN SHOULD RAMP
UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEP BY THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A BIT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM.  I ADDED POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.  I ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RUNNING INTO SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A GRAY AND CHILLY DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND MAINLY DRY.  H8 TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 0C TO +5C RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT WE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE
SHOWERS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE AS
WE APPROACH THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
SO THE I-94 TAF SITES WILL COME DOWN SOONER. EXPECT MVFR BY
21-22Z...AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING 00-02Z. IT WILL OCCUR
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FOR THE I-96 TAF SITES...WITH MVFR BY 23-00Z AND
IFR BY 01-03Z.

ONCE THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE IFR/LIFR
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE GET TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING
SEEMS LIGHT SO THIS COULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONSIDERED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
WIND...AS EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP A BIT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN A LOW JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A 1030MB
HIGH OVER ONTARIO. THINKING WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH
IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN AN OFF SHORE WIND...WAVES WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...NEARLY FLAT AT THE SHORE WITH 2-3 FOOTERS NEAR THE 5 MILE
MARK. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE


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