000
FXUS63 KGRR 271706
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND RAPIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER MONDAY AND
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NOT MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS
GOING GIVEN THE CURRENT DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
WAVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96 AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY
UP OVER THE LK MI NEARSHORE AREA FOR NOW AS WEB CAMS AT THE COAST
STILL REVEAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING BUT IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT TOWARD NOON. LATEST RAP FCST SNDGS
STILL SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH FAT
CAPE PROFILES. THE SIG HAIL PARAMETER FROM SPC MESO PAGE IS
ALREADY 1-1.5 WITH H7-H5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C.
THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT AT LEAST INITIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL...OUR THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR VALUES.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ATTM. A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED AND PRODUCED 2 INCH HAIL AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THOUGH AS THEY`VE
OUTRUN THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS IS PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LI`S AROUND -6C COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS AND STRONG PVA SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS TODAY. FAVORED TIME FRAME IS FROM AROUND 11 AM
THROUGH 3-4 PM. FAVORED AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HIGH
LIKELY AND ABOVE POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS TODAY. CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT COMING IN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING
AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY SO WE INCLUDED CHC
POPS FOR THAT. H5 TEMPS FALL 4C FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT. WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL OUT
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...BUT COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
END UP BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE FORECAST THEME OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COMBINED WITH JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING THE LOWER
PENINSULA.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EVEN INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S AS THE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT A WASH
OUT IN THE LONG TERM BY ANY MEANS...BUT A FLARE UP IN COVERAGE EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
IF/WHEN ANY STRONGER CELLS IMPACT A TERMINAL... LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY
LOWERING CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY
THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY NOON ALTHOUGH GUSTY
NORTH SFC WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEBCAMS AND VISIBILE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG ON
THE LAKESHORE. THE ADVISORY FOR FOG WAS STRETCHED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY WILL
BREAK UP THE FOG.

HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH HAZARDS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE EDGES UP
INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES PUSH BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AREA AVERAGES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION THEN
SEEMS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

ASIDE FROM SUNDAYS FOCUS...WE WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXIST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK. NO HIGH END PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
THE AREA. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...SO NO
CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MJS