000
FXUS63 KGRR 070729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIREWEATHER/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF MICHIGAN TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY
LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR WET WEATHER
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A CAP BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP IT DRY. LOOKS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS.

DIGGING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES BY EARLY TUESDAY. COULD BE
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
STRONGER GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND
FIELDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AS WELL...SO SEVERE
POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUNDINGS LOOK SATURATED
FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES. LOCAL EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND PWAT VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE RISK FOR STORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI...ALTHOUGH SOME
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN WESTERN COUNTIES
LATER IN THE DAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ESE
NEAR CHICAGO ATTM. PCPN IS PRETTY MUCH OVER AT KMKG AND WILL END
BY 09Z OR SO OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND DECREASE A BIT. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BUT EVERYTHING SHOULD BE VFR BY 14Z.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

CONVECTIVE WINDS KICKED UP THE WAVES...OVER 5 FOOTERS STILL NEAR
GRAND HAVEN AND HOLLAND. WILL STRETCH THE CURRENT HAZARDS THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SUB 4 FOOTER LIKELY BY NOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WET CONDITIONS PERSIST...SO FIRE HAZARDS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

HEAVY RAINS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PORTIONS OF THE MAPLE...FLAT AND LITTLE
MUSKEGON BASINS OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE RISES LIKELY FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RAIN EVENT TUESDAY. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DURATION WILL BE LIMITED...THE PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. PWAT AROUND 2 INCHES...LOW LCL AND THIN
DEEP CAPE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...93
FIRE WEATHER...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS