Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 230818
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

LINGERING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW CHRISTMAS
EVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

A WINTER WX ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING
FOR OUR FAR NNE FCST AREA (LAKE OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES) FOR A
MIX OF SLEET/-FZRA/-SN. PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN UP
THERE LATER THIS MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY MODERATE.

PCPN IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE LAST OF THE STEADIER RAIN
IS ALREADY MOVING UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH MAINLY DRY WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BRINGS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PCPN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY OVER OUR NW FCST AREA) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND
DUE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN
ADDITION TO LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FAIR WX WILL RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER NNE AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE ARE IN A
FAST FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER HIGH SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA
AND A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SFC WAVES MOVE ALONG IT OVER THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD BUT IT
APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF US FOR NOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO 5 KFT LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO DRIZZLE AS THIS FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. THE IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
TO MVFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. A RISK FOR THE IFR TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING DOES EXIST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER TODAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONLY A FOOT OR TWO AT MOST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE RAIN
COMING IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES
OF AREA RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS. HOWEVER RIVERS ARE WELL WITHIN
BANK AND PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ038>040.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS









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