Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 271156
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
756 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED...SO
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

VISIBILITIES REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SITES VARY FROM 10 MILES TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE. UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT...WE ARE NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD STATUS IN THE FOG IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE VARIABLE VISIBILITIES AND THE LACK OF STRATUS WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH
AND LIKE LAST NIGHT MAY NEED TO ISSUE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS HEADING INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THOUGH. KEPT A 20PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

BOTTOM LINE IS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY OTHER THAN THE NIGHTLY
OCCURRENCE OF THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE U.P. MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN DRY WX BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PCPN THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE DEPICTION OF A STRONGER
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS PROGD LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONGLY DIGGING
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW BY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MOVES A
CLOSED LOW NE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF
PCPN IS PROGD BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 55KTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS IN
TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

STRATUS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING PER THE FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...FEEL THE
FOG WILL LIFT MUCH QUICKER...ESPECIALLY AT THE TAF SITES. THE
THICKEST FOG APPEARS TO BE FROM Y70 AND LAN NORTHWARD TOWARDS MOP.
BY 14Z...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. VFR WEATHER
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING.

MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL FOG JUST A BIT. FOR THAT
REASON BROUGHT ONLY MVFR FOG INTO SOME OF THE TAFS...BUT DID NOT
GO LOWER THAN THAT. LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY BE MORE CONFIDENT AND
WE CAN GO LOWER THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS...SO NO MARINE
CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES LESS THAN A
FOOT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

RIVERS REMAIN LOW AND WITHIN BANK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO
MONDAY...SO NO HYDRO CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE





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