Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 020935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A
WESTERLY FLOW EXITING THE CWA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WAS NOT CAPTURED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND AS A
RESULT SOME GUIDANCE WAS TOO FAST TO DEVELOP FOG/STRATUS. HOWEVER
THERE STILL IS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE SKIES CLEARED OUT QUICKEST...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER LAKES
TO THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MIX IN AND EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CLOUD
COVER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT BUT A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH
WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. DAYTIME MIXING
UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10
TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITS EASTWARD
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL NEAR OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARMER AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE DRIVEN NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REACH OUR REGION THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO QUIET LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S.

FOLLOWING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS/SUBSIDENCE WILL FORM A SURFACE HIGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO RETURN TO PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BE CANADIAN
SOURCED...THUS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN STEADY...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 60S. SO EVER SO MORE
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SUMMER
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILARLY...NIGHTTIME
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING TO +16 TO
+18C. SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN...WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY
THE WARMEST SINCE MAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCROACH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS THERE IS A STRATUS CLOUD DECK GENERALLY
IN THE MVFR RANGE...BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IN
AREAS WHICH DO REMAIN CLEAR. THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (AND JHW) WHERE IFR STRATUS AND FOG IS IN
PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION TODAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS


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