Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High pressure will continue to bring dry and very warm weather
through the first half of the week. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of showers late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with much cooler temperatures arriving late this week in the
wake of the cold front.


As of 1035 am...regional satellite imagery is showing the last
traces of valley fog dissipating across the Southern Tier and
just a few isolated clouds over the Saint Lawrence Valley...with
sunny skies otherwise prevailing. For the rest of the day...high
pressure at all levels will remain parked directly overhead...with
associated strong subsidence and dry air aloft maintaining sun-
filled skies. With 850 mb temps running between +18C and +20C...
expect highs mostly in the upper 80s across the lower elevations
today, with local lake breezes keeping the lakeshores a little
cooler. Highs will be very close to daily records, which are 88 in
Buffalo, 90 in Rochester, and 88 in Watertown.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with clear skies. Higher
dewpoints will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights,
with mid to upper 60s on the lake plains and upper 50s to lower 60s
across the cooler Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario.
Expect typical river valley fog in the western Southern Tier, with
patchy lighter fog elsewhere in rural areas.


The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft
throughout the period. This will maintain dry weather with much
above normal temperatures.

Although both Monday and Tuesday will be hot, Monday looks to be
slightly warmer. Consensus 850mb temperatures are forecast to be
around +19C Monday and +18C Tuesday. Highs will generally run in the
mid to upper 80s, with a few spots making a run at 90 on Monday. The
warmest readings are expected across inland areas away from local
lake breeze circulations. It also remain very humid, with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot,
despite the calender date with Heat Index values pushing into the
90s if not the air temperatures.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged.  The record high is 87 for Buffalo on Monday and Tuesday
with forecast highs near or slightly higher than the record.  At
Rochester the record for Monday is 92, and for Tuesday 89. Rochester
will be close, but may fall a bit short due to the northeast lake
breeze which will develop each afternoon.

Nighttime low temperatures will be on the warm side due to the high
dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The humid
airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also result in
areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys.


Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper Great
Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain well
above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but moisture and upper level
support is limited, therefore rainfall amounts look minimal with
only scattered showers. 00Z guidance is slightly slower and weaker
with the boundary, suggesting the best chance for any showers will
be Wednesday night, and this only a small one.

Much cooler air is expected to spill across the region in the wake
of the cold front passage, this airmass change will get us back down
to near more seasonal values by Thursday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s Thursday.

A shortwave is likely to drop across the Lower Great Lakes Friday,
with a reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs will be near to slightly
below normal, topping out in the 60s on Friday and Saturday. The air
aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement, with a
small chance of showers both Friday and Saturday.

Given this pattern, there still remains a chance that some locations
will not receive any measurable rainfall for the remainder of
September. In Buffalo it has been 15 days since there has been
measurable precipitation, and although this may be extended we still
have a long ways to go to reach the record. The longest dry stretch
without measurable precipitation in Buffalo is 30 days set back in
the fall of 1924.


Unlimited VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the day
and this evening as high pressure surface and aloft remains parked
overhead. Expect more river valley fog late tonight and Monday
morning across the western Southern Tier, with patchy fog elsewhere
in rural areas with local IFR.


Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the first half of the week. This will provide a long
stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating
conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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