Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 271833
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Carolinas this afternoon is
continuing to pump warm and humid air north across western and
central NY. An upper level ridge is also in place across the East
Coast setting a pattern that is bringing mid-summer like weather to
the region. Temperatures are running in the upper 70s to mid 80s
with dewpoints in the 60s at 2pm. Visible satellite imagery shows a
nice cumulus field inland of the the stable flow east of Lakes Erie
and Ontario. Thunderstorms that fired around lunchtime along the
southern shore of Lake Ontario continue to track across the central
Finger Lakes. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a pool of 1000-2500 j/kg of
SBCAPE across the Finger Lakes into Central NY with a bullseye east
of SYR. These unstable conditions will continue to support chances
for scattered thunderstorm activity firing on lake breeze boundaries
well inland from the Great Lakes through this evening. This would
mainly be confined to south and east of Rochester with a fairly
stable environment to the west thanks to the Lake Erie lake breeze.
Similar to yesterday weak wind shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates and riding aloft will keep storms sub-severe.

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes or
Southern Tier this evening will quickly subside with the setting
sun. Expect another warm and humid night across western and north
central New York with temperatures only settling into the low to mid
60s. These values will be more typical of those found in July or
early August.

On Saturday expect similar conditions to what we are seeing this
afternoon. Warm and humid temperatures and chances of showers and
thunderstorms firing along lake breezes. We will see an uptick again
in surface temperatures as 850mb level temperatures rise another
degree or two to around 18C. This combined with subsidence from
increasing 500mb ridging aloft will help boost surface highs into
the mid to upper 80s for most with 90 possible with light downslope
flow in the Genesee Valley and below the Niagara Escarpment. Combine
these temperatures with the high humidity and heat index values will
push into the 90s across many locations. Some of these
temperatures will challenge record highs with more detail in the
Climate section below. While these are not Heat Advisory
level...this will be the warmest day of the year so those not yet
acclimated to the heat should take precaution. Concerning the
thunderstorm chances, the same problems that are limiting storm
intensity today (Friday) will also limit intensity tomorrow.
Coverage should again remain mainly south and east of ROC but
can`t rule out some activity firing west of ROC south of Lake
Ontario toward Niagara Falls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity
through the first part of the period.  Temperatures Sunday will
just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night
on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s
in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through tonight and Saturday as ridging
at the surface and aloft contribute to mid-summer like weather.
Expect TSRA to remain confined to South and East of ROC, including
KJHW, where a storm tracking over the airfield could bring tempo sub-
VFR. Otherwise any early evening convection will quickly dissipate.

Similar conditons expected on Saturday as what we are seeing today
with high pressure remaining in control. Storms may fire along lake
breeze boundaries in the afternoon near KROC and KJHW so have
covered this will VCSH as convection is not expected until after
18z. All other sites should be free of storms thanks to stable lake
breeze flow.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly
fair weather in place through at least the first half of the
Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze
boundaries this afternoon and tomorrow may clip the nearshore
waters. Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.