Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The upper level shortwave trough that has been meandering to our
west is expected to finally, albeit slowly, move to our north and
eventually east of the area. We`re finally seeing some mid to upper
level dry air, noticeable via water vapor imagery, work into the
area. This has helped to erode precipitation across the area. Short
range models have an area of strong isentropic ascent this morning
over the western portions of the forecast area. But it looks like the
dry air aloft may inhibit much precipitation development as RH plots
through this later of ascent are relatively dry. This seems to be
playing out with the lack of QPF the short range models produce this
morning. Despite this, there are still some showers and perhaps a
storm moving through central Kansas around the upper shortwave. So as
the wave moves northeast, some of this activity may survive into our
northwestern zones.

For Sunday, with the area on the back side of the now departing
upper shortwave trough, we`ll likely be in an area of subsidence
through much of the day with much of the moisture shunted to our
south. So Sunday actually looks dry for a good portion of the
forecast area. The exception may be eastern Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri where moisture will recover through the day and there
seems to be a chance for moving convection into the area late in the
day and perhaps into the overnight.

The first half of next work week looks potentially unsettled with
multiple periods of chance PoPs. But there really doesn`t appear to
be a focus for anything until Wednesday. Rather, it looks like humid
and unstable conditions will lead to daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. The best chance for more widespread showers and storms
though will come Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Behind
this front it looks like we`ll finally see a drier air mass work into
the area. For now, it looks like the later half of next week and into
the weekend look very nice with dry weather and pleasant temperatures
likely.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

After a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the rest of the forecast. Winds will generally be
from the southwest at 10 to 15 kts. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible again today, but coverage should be less
than yesterday so have kept mention out of the forecast for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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