806
FXUS63 KEAX 072318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat Wednesday morning into the early
  afternoon. The main threats are large hail and gusty winds,
  however a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

This afternoon, a glancing blow from a surface ridge of high
pressure passing mostly to the south is providing dry weather.
However, the dry weather will be shortlived. Broad upper troughing
exists over the northern Plains. Tonight, a shortwave rounding the
base of the trough will move across the central Plains forcing a
cold front towards the area. Around sunrise tomorrow morning the
shortwave and the associated cold front will move into the area as a
LLJ also noses into the area. This will spark convection during the
morning hours over the southern and eastern CWA. These storms will
have the potential to be severe particularly if the NAM solution
with 3000-3500J/Kg of MUCAPE comes to fruition. The ascent
associated with the LLJ will initially have large hail as the main
threat however, storms are expected to become linear and transition
to a damaging wind threat during the morning hours. In addition with
storms developing in the vicinity of a triple point tornadoes cannot
be completely ruled out. Storms will shift east of the CWA by early
afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s. Thursday the
upper level trough that was over the northern Plains will move into
the Great Lakes region. A vort max rounding the base of the trough
will move through the area producing diurnal storms and showers.
Cold air advection will keep highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Thursday.

Friday and Saturday the area will be under northwest flow aloft
however, with no disturbances in the flow quiet weather is expected
through this period. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s to low
70s before rising into the low to mid 70s Saturday. Sunday a upper
level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region forcing a back
door cold front into the forecast area. This will bring the chance
for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
This front will remains stall across the area on Monday as a weak
upper level trough move through the region continuing storm chances.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight.
Tomorrow morning, there is a low chance (~25%) for low MVFR
ceilings. Have added mention of 2500 FT ceilings to account for
this potential and if chances increase, the forecast can be
adjusted lower. Winds are gusty from the southwest as of the
23Z observations. These should diminish quickly this evening and
become light and variable overnight. Winds increase from the
south to southeast tomorrow morning, helping bring the moisture/
lower clouds into the area, ahead of the next front. That front
may trigger a few showers, though the bulk of activity looks to
be east of the terminals. Winds then shift to the west behind
the front early tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB