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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280425
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 911 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

No sig updates needed or planned.

UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

No significant updates planned for this early evening. The H5
shortwave trof over eastcentral MN will steadily rotate to the
southeast and existing CU field over northern MN will continue to
dissipate with nightfall. Thin cirrus will advect in aloft from
deep convection western ND through the late evening hours. Else,
expect fair skies with light and variable winds during the
overnight and early Friday morning periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The upper level disturbance has moved into north central
Minnesota, where the SPC mesoanalysis page shows a 500mb cold pool
of -16C. This has set up fairly decent mid level lapse rates,
0-6km shear values around 25 knots, and about 2000 J/kg of sfc
based CAPE. There have been a few storm cells, mainly in the Lake
of the Woods and northern Beltrami county area. Have seen at least
one 50dBz core get up above 20,000 feet, so there could be some
small hail associated with them. Not expecting anything to become
severe, but some pea to dime size hail could be possible. Think
most of this activity should move out of the northeast FA by late
afternoon or early evening. The remaining cumulus should fade away
pretty quickly again this evening with light winds. Friday should
be another dry day with highs in the 80s. Winds will become
southerly and 850mb temps will warm a few degrees, which should
enable sfc highs to get a few degrees warmer than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Upper level pattern for the long term period will be a continuation
of high pressure over the Four Corners with ridging up through WY/MT
into Sask.  Sfc winds will increase in southerly flow during day Fri
and continue through late Sat...keeping daytime highs in the mid-
80s.  The most significant feature for sensible weather will be a
sfc trough moving into region by late Sat aftn into Sat evening,
which should help trigger some convection Sat night and possibly
during the late aftn period.  Note that a LLJ does increase
potential for elevated activity over cntrl ND Fri night as well but
loses strength by the time the activity reaches far wrn zones by mid-
Saturday morning.  Low POPs seem reasonable west of Devils Lake-
Valley City.  Northerly flow Sunday will keep things dry and bring
some relief to the mid-80s temp for the middle of next week, temps
falling into the upper 70s (east) to low 80s (west) range.  Upper
high moves into central plains early in the week with zonal flow
over srn Can/northern tier.  A few weak waves possible is resulting
in some isold/sct activity through the weak, but certainly no strong
signal of a significant event beyond Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Expect VFR conditions in generally fair skies with light and
variable winds during the overnight and early morning periods.
Friday will see some high cirrus aloft and light winds turning
steadily from the south... with SCT-BKN VFR low cloud decks
developing into eastern ND along and west of a DVL-BAC line after
19z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Gust