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000
FXUS63 KFGF 091130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR
THIS MORNING. READINGS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S AND HIGHS REACHING THE 40S LATER TODAY STILL SEEMS PROBABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
THE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING MANITOBA STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...AND WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING TODAY...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS
GETTING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EVEN WITH A LOT OF CIRRUS.
850MB TEMPS WILL GET TO AROUND 10 C IN THE SOUTH TODAY...AND WITH
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 30S IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THINK WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE
TREED AREAS IN THE EAST TODAY.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO ONTARIO
FOR TOMORROW. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE IS TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE
WEST AND A MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN FOR A SHORT TIME. WEST
WINDS...GOOD MIXING AND CIRRUS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
20S AND 30S. SOME COOLER 850MB TEMPS SEEP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THINK WITH WEST SFC WINDS CONTINUING WILL
KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A WHILE LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR STARTS TO COME BACK DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIP TO SD AND NEB...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF BRINGS SOME INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR NOW BUT THINK
THE PRECIP IMPACT ON OUR CWA WILL BE MINIMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COLD...IN THE TEENS...AS
A SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND WINDS RETURN TO THE
SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...OVERALL A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
WAVE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF (AND COOLER FOR THURSDAY). GIVEN THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIRRUS INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN LATER IN
THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR