Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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729
FXUS63 KFGF 310007
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
707 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

925-700 mb dry air over most of the fcst area today and will
remain that way tonight. mid level clouds remain in the far north
and the far south is seeing decreasing 850 mb moisture and
clearing of some stratocu. Most of the fcst area will be mainly
clear tonight. Short range model guidance doesnt too much in the
way of fog tonight overall...patchy in the far east. But will keep
monitoring as dry airmass above the boundary layer may limit fog
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Challenge once again this afternoon will be temps and cloud trends
overnight and the impacts of possible fog development by morning.
SFC high pressure axis nosing in to the FA from the east and with
its subsidence has cleared out most of northern Minnesota. The
exception is immediately along the International border were
thicker clouds have persisted and radar showing some light echoes.
Will mention a sprinkle through the late afternoon and into the
evening as a few drops were noted on St Vincent MN webcam.

Winds once again tonight decrease in speed and will create the
possibility for fog to develop with the most likely areas across
the far northwest area and in the far east. Will leave out of the
forecast for now. Weak front will begin to enter the NW zones
tomorrow with increasing clouds and low shower chances. Ahead of
the front another warm day with sun and temps rising into the mid
and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A relatively active northern stream will bring periodic pcpn chances
to the region from this weekend into midweek. Overall any
particular event looks weak with the main energy remaining south
of the region. Based on thermal profiles any pcpn will be mainly
light rain. At this time the best potential will be Sunday and
again Wednesday. Column cools slightly but generally temperatures
will continue on the warm side of seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

VFR conditions are fcst thru the pd. Possible exception is
devevelopment of local fog late tonight/Fri AM. Highly uncertain
of this as it would be raditional fog and with dry air above the
boundary layer and dry surface in clear area fog potential may be
limited.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Warmer weather inclusive of above freezing overnight temperatures
have impacted locations from the northern valley to the upper Devils
Lake basin in several ways. Melting of snow has caused plenty of
overland flooding from Pembina west through Towner counties
prompting an areal flood warning for these locations valid through
the weekend. A small stream flood advisory was issued for northern
Benson County, addressing some concerns in and around Leeds.

River responses to these conditions vary by location with major
flooding expected along the Park River near Grafton and on the
Pembina River at Neche. The Two Rivers River at Hallock and the Red
River at Pembina are at or will be at moderate flood stage. An ice
jam vicinity of the Hallock gage is being monitored and is presently
making progress downstream of the city. The Park and Pembina Rivers
are expected to crest over the weekend with the northern extent of
the Red taking a little longer to crest sometime next week.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...WJB



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