Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
914 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 911 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Primary change for the evening forecast will be addition of fog to
region around Bemidji MN which went down in fog about 3 to 4 hours
earlier than expected. Will need to closely watch DPDs in the
region and monitor for advisory potential. Minor changes made to
very light rain showers/sprinkles over the far northeast which may
move into northern valley in the early morning and dissipate by
10Z to 12Z.

UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

No changes to public grids at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper level low pressure system over the IN/KY border forecast to
move into northern IN by Sat afternoon. Low level moisture over
southern WI will move into the MN side by Sat morning and across
much of the area by Sat afternoon.

Elsewhere an upper level ridge axis from the Dakotas to SASK will
shift into MAN by Sat afternoon. Precipitable water will rise to a
little over an inches by Sat afternoon. Will add threat for fog over
the southeast and east zones after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday night through Sunday...The later part of the weekend should
be fairly quiet as the upper low over the Great Lakes pulls further
east and ridging builds into the Plains ahead of the next upper
trough. Southerly winds will continue with surface troughing to the
west, and some stratus is possible with the moisture coming up from
the south. However, think it will scatter out and highs on Sunday
should get fairly warm in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Several of the
models break out some showers and thunderstorms along the trough
axis in central ND, and these could clip the Devils Lake Basin
Sunday afternoon and evening, so kept some low chance POPs going in
that area.

Monday through Wednesday...The large upper trough will move from the
southwestern CONUS up into the Northern Plains. The GFS is a bit
more progressive than the other models but all have a surface low
moving across the region during this time period. At this point, it
seems that the chances for rainfall will increase into Monday night
and Tuesday, with a bit lower chances on Wednesday as the models are
in fairly good agreement with the dry slot setting up somewhere over
the CWA. Temps will start out fairly warm with some highs in the 70s
for early in the week but decrease on Wednesday after a cold front
pushes through.

Thursday through Friday...Showers will linger mostly in the north as
the low pressure system pulls away and moisture wraps around behind.
Highs will be a bit cooler than seasonal averages but the clouds
will keep lows from getting too cold.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Have added FG to eastern sites to match public forecast...which
indicates widespread fog east of the RRV. MOS guidance brings LIFR
conds as early as 04Z but model of choice delays onset of IFR
conds until around 07Z and limits westward extend to BJI, keeping
TVF MVFR vsbys around 5SM. Will monitor 00Z model runs and adjust
as necessary. No vsby restrictions anticipated within and west of
the RRV.




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