Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 231015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL ARRIVE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 55 MPH IN THE
VICINITY OF MOJAVE AND CACHE CREEK. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH
MODEL /HRRR/ HAD FORECAST THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER 09Z /0200 PDT/
THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE LOOKS SHOW A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS SHORT-WAVE LIKELY WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE
BASE OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS GUSTY THROUGH DAYBREAK...SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA FROM THE BASE OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS TO
THE VICINITIES OF CACHE CREEK AND MOJAVE THROUGH 17Z /1000 PDT/ THIS
MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TUESDAY RANGED FROM 69 AT AVENAL AND LOS BANOS TO 75 AT TAFT AND
WERE 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
CALIFORNIA...AND PEAK A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT STORM NEAR 47N/147W THIS MORNING...WEST
OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. THE STORM WILL REACH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH TO KINGS CANYON BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION ALSO WILL MOVE INTO MERCED AND THE
REMAINDER OF MARIPOSA COUNTIES AND THE FOOTHILLS OF MADERA COUNTY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE PIUTES AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS STORM. THE FIRST IS THE DEEP COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 0 C BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COLD...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FORCING BY THE SURFACE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A
RELATED CONCERN IS THAT THE COLD POOL WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 4000 FEET AT YOSEMITE VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO AROUND
4400 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE ELEVATION OF THE
HIGHEST POINTS OF BOTH THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THESE
PASSES SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING
WITH A SHARP DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING. FOR YOSEMITE VALLEY...MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR MOVING IN AFTER THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. STILL...
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOOR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS STORM IS WIND. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN
COUNTY DESERTS WHERE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS TO BE A WET STORM. THE 23/00Z
AND 23/06Z GFS RUNS ARE EVEN WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW
DOUBLES THE QPF OF THE 22/00Z. THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS HAD GIVEN
YOSEMITE AROUND 0.84 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN
GIVES YOSEMITE VALLEY 1.64 INCH WITH NEARLY ALL FALLING BY 12Z /0500
PDT/ SATURDAY. THE NEW GFS ALSO GIVES FRESNO 0.89 INCH OF RAIN. /THE
22/00Z RUN HAD GIVEN FRESNO 0.45 INCH./ HOWEVER...IT MUST BE NOTED
THAT INITIALLY THE MODELS HAD FORECAST MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
TUESDAY/S SYSTEM BUT PROVED TO HAVE GREATLY OVERFORECAST THE STORM
STRENGTH. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

NOTE...TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE EARLIEST 100-DEGREE DAY FOR
       BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO...IN 1910 FOR BOTH CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-23      100:1910     56:1961     62:2012     39:1958
KFAT 04-24      101:1910     60:1899     63:1910     36:1958
KFAT 04-25      101:1898     55:1952     64:1898     36:1964

KBFL 04-23      100:1910     59:1960     62:2012     33:1904
KBFL 04-24      100:1910     64:1994     62:1981     34:1904
KBFL 04-25       97:1946     60:1951     65:1910     32:1893

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
KERN COUNTY DESERT FROM THE BASE OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS TO THE
VICINITY OF CACHE CREEK AND MOJAVE /CAZ099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






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