Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 212315 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
415 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. A COOLER AND DRYER
NORTHWEST WINDFLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES &&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMULUS ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIER NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SAN
DIEGO HAD TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO CLOSE TO THE INYO
COUNTY LINE...BUT LIGHTNING REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF KERN COUNTY
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM COLLAPSING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC
FORCING OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
COULD DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE CREST INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF FRESNO
AND TULARE COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
CREST THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY /2300 PDT TONIGHT/.

DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH THE LOW HAS PULLED OVER CALIFORNIA...19Z
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF 19Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
FRESNO UP 3 DEGREES AND BAKERSFIELD UP 1 DEGREE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WAS DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S.

THE SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO
BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY...AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TRIPLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...SO NEXT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OUTFLOW WINDS OF
35 KTS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH 04Z
FRIDAY FROM COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 22 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
COUNTY AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-21      108:1919     80:1968     76:1913     51:1959
KFAT 08-22      108:1897     81:1960     75:1995     50:1899
KFAT 08-23      112:1891     79:1959     78:1913     51:1960

KBFL 08-21      110:1919     80:1968     77:1982     51:1918
KBFL 08-22      109:1919     82:1983     78:2009     44:1903
KBFL 08-23      110:1913     83:1960     80:1982     49:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE/SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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