Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 231035
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
335 AM PDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will maintain dry and hot
conditions through Wednesday. Temperatures in the San Joaquin
Valley will hit or slightly exceed triple digits, especially on
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures then begin to cool Wednesday
night and Thursday. Only isolated showers or Thunderstorms are
possible over the Sierra Crest through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level blocking ridge pattern still dominating the West Coast
this morning as the heat continues for one more day. Before the
Central California Interior feels the influence of a trof cross
the Pacific Northwest, triple-digit temperatures will be felt
across the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. Short term models
are progging an upper level trof to move through the Pacific
Northwest and cause a change in the short term weather. The main
elements being influenced by the passage of the trof will be the
winds and temperatures. Currently, models showing high confidence
in attempting to swing the upper trof across the Pacific Northwest
and through the Inter-mountain West starting on Wednesday and
continuing through the end of the week. Therefore, a cooling trend
will start across the West Coast and continue for several days.
Based on current precip-water analysis from across the area, the
atmosphere may be too dry for anything more then isolated
afternoon convection.

Cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and clouds may return to
the Central California Interior during the latter part of the
week after the breakdown of the current ridge pattern. While PVA
 vort lobe dynamics will be very limited during the passage of
the trof to the north, cooler temperatures will filter in the
region along with an increase in surface winds. Precipitation
analysis showing limited accumulation along the Sierra Nevada
crest throughout the week with the passage of the trof that exits
the region by the weekend.

Models do show some uncertainty in the flow aloft toward the end
of the week and into the weekend. Yet, models maintain a good
handle on the solution of possibly introducing another ridge
pattern over the west coast later this weekend. Therefore, the
cooling trend will transition to a neutral pattern around Friday
and then switch to a warming trend on Saturday. By Monday,
temperatures return to above seasonal normal`s as the heat starts
up next again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local IFR possible over the Sierra Nevada crest due to mountain
obscurations from isolated thunderstorms during this afternoon and
into early this evening. VFR conditions are otherwise expected
across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday May 23 2017...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera and Tulare Counties and Sequoia
National Park and Forest. Further information is available at
Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Warning for the Merced River at the Pohono Bridge through
late Tuesday Night /RNOFLWUSJ/.


&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...Dudley
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford



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