Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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066
FXUS66 KHNX 061228
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
418 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME FINE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND POSSIBLY LONGER
THANKS TO A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND ACT AS A BARRICADE TO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS THAT
TRY TO REACH THE WEST COAST. THERE CURRENTLY IS A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL THWART ITS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1040 MB)
WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST TO 55 MPH IN THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND
AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH WEAKENS OVER IDAHO BUT NONETHELESS EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH WILL EASILY CHALLENGE RECORDS IN THE SJ VLY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR EACH OF THESE DAYS
FOR FAT AND BFL HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BELOW THIS DISCUSSION. KEEP IN
MIND THAT IF DOWNSLOPE WINDS SURVIVE THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTH END
OF THE SJ VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAX TEMPS COULD TOP 80 DEGREES
AND HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRANSITION TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS BY FRIDAY. TRADITIONALLY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE GFS...ARE OFTEN TOO FAST BUSTING DOWN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES.
HISTORICALLY IT TAKES A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO KICK A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA
NEXT SATURDAY WITH SOME PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER TO ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES WHICH FORECAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER CA NEXT WEEKEND. CONSENSUS WAS TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP DAY 7 DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
UNTIL THEN...CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS ARE IN FOR A WEEK LONG SPELL OF
SPRING FEVER.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

               FEB 8TH    FEB 9TH   FEB 10TH   FEB 11TH

FRESNO         74/1987    71/2012    75/1961    73/1925
BAKERSFIELD    77/1917    77/2012    79/1961    81/1925

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 6 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND KINGS
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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