Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 162310 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
410 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017


.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the region through
Tuesday with above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
A weak sub-tropical system will push through the area Tuesday
Night bringing increased clouds and isolated mountain showers to
the higher Sierras. A cold front will push through the area
Thursday Night and Friday bringing much cooler temperatures, a
chance of light precipitation and increased winds on Friday.
Mostly clear and dry conditions will return by the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the region is keeping dry
conditions and mild temperatures across our area. Temperatures are
running fairly close to yday at this time. Meanwhile the upper
flow has turned to the southwest. WV/IR imagery are indicating
some mid/upper level moisture of tropcial origin is being pushed
through our area in the southwest flow aloft and some high clouds
have been observed today.

The 12Z WRF as well as the 12Z GFS are indicating some moisture
from a tropical disturbance currently situated near 21N/123W will
push across Central CA Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night.
While projected CAPES and instability are not that impressive.
There is enough mid/high moisture with this system and enough
anticipated quasi-geostrophic forcing for a chance of sprinkles or
light showers over the higher elevations of the southern Sierra
Nevada and have added mention of precipitation chances for the
Southern Sierra Nevada for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday Night as
a result.

A split flow pattern is expected to prevail from Wednesday through
the remainder of the week with a northern stream trough progged to
push through the PAC NW Thursday Night and Friday. The models
have been trending drier with this system for Central CA with
each run so have trended downward with precipitation chances for
this period. However, we will continue to advertise increased
winds for our area, most noticably across the Kern County
Mountains and Deserts as well as a sharp cooling trend with
daytime temperatures expected to plunge by 10-20 DEG F between
Wednesday and Friday.

The medium range models are in fairly good agreement with a dry
upper ridge building into CA over the weekend and strengthening
through the middle portion of next week. This will result in dry
weather and a warming trend across our area for the weekend
through at least the early part of next week with temperatures
expected to rise to near seasonal normals by Sunday then rise to
above normal levels for early next week.


.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR visibilities due to smoke can be
expected in the San Joaquin Valley, southern Sierra foothills and
higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada for at least the
next 24 hours, with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere across the
Central California Interior.


Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert.



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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