Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 200350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
850 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE COOLING OF THE AIRMASS. ONE POTENTIAL CELL
OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN FRESNO COUNTY DID
NOT PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING...NOR DID ANY RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA
REPORT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING/S FORECAST.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING...KEEPING A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. FRESNO
HAD A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...THE FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 4TH /86
DEGREES/ THAT THE HIGH WAS NOT AT LEAST 90. BAKERSFIELD WAS EVEN
COOLER WITH A HIGH OF 88 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME BAKERSFIELD HAD A
HIGH BELOW 90 WAS JULY 23RD...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 89. THE LAST TIME
BAKERSFIELD HAD A HIGH OF 88 WAS JUNE 26TH.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SLOW THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW A BIT...AND DO NOT BRING IT OVER THE DIABLO RANGE UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. STILL COULD SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH
THIS LOW...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY /2300 PDT SATURDAY/...THE MODELS EJECT
THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...PLACING THE LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 18Z /1100 PDT/
SUNDAY. THIS FAST MOVEMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHACHAPI RANGE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER/BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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