Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 241125
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
325 AM PST Tue Jan 24 2017
A storm system off the North California coast will continue
bringing wet weather to the Central California Interior today.
Although a few showers could return to the Sierra Thursday, dry
weather will be the rule from Wednesday through the weekend with a
potential for San Joaquin Valley fog.
An unsettled weather pattern continues across the Central
California Interior this Tuesday morning. Regional radar show
more rain an snow mainly along the coast, but could move into the
area later today. While precipitation will remain light this
morning, a few convective afternoon showers could provide the area
with moderate precipitation amounts. Satellite water vapor imagery
and upper air analysis is showing a low circulating off the
Northern California coast and dropping almost due south. The area
to the southwest of the district will remain as the most active
this Tuesday under the best dynamic lift. Yet, models do show weak
instability pushing into the Central California Interior this
afternoon and mainly confined to the Sierra Nevada. Therefore,
will maintain a mention of precipitation today, but taper off the
potential going into the middle of the week.
While showers will linger today, fog will become a even greater
threat across the San Joaquin Valley during the overnight hours.
Model upper air analysis is already attempting to develop a ridge
pattern over the west by Midweek. Satellite fog product does
showing some fog development this morning as the visibility at
Hanford drops to around 2 miles. Early on, fog may be isolated,
but should become more widespread later this week. Will keep the
initial fog event isolated due to the unsettled nature of the
atmosphere this Tuesday morning. Furthermore, area rivers remain a
high flow today with a few at monitor stage this morning. While
flooding is not expected today, the high flow is of concern due to
the dangers of the fast flow of the water.
The upper low currently off the Northern California coast is
progged to drop south along the coast today. As it moves south,
showers will shift southward. Lingering showers tonight will give
way to clearing overnight and better fog potential into Wednesday
morning. A ridge pattern developing over the West Coast will see a
piece of vort max energy break from and weak disturbance and move
through Northern California. The trajectory of the vort max energy
will skirt the northern portion of the district and provide
Yosemite with a potential for precipitation on Thursday.
By Friday, blocking ridge become main feature over the west coast
for better fog development and the beginning of a dry period.
Models showing increasing confidence in maintaining the ridge
pattern through at least next Tuesday. Even with a disturbance
riding over the ridge on Sunday/Monday, the ridge will only
flatten and rebound through the middle of next week.
MVFR in areas of haze and mist...areas of IFR in patchy dense fog
through 20z today in the San Joaquin Valley.
IFR conditions will prevail over the southern Sierra and the Kern
County mountains through 21z Today with mountain obscurations in
precipitation. MVFR conditions can be expected in the Sierra
foothills and along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi
mountains through 18z Tuesday.
VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.