Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 260640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN IMPACT WX THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 1/2-3/4SM VSBYS AND THE
LATEST 11-3.9U IR IMAGES INDICATE FG EXPANDING RAPIDLY IN SRN MIDDLE
TN AND SHALLOWER FOG IN NRN AL RIVER VALLEYS. WE WILL HOIST AN NPW
FOR OUR COUNTIES UNTIL 14Z AS WE EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE TODAY. SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 80S TODAY AND MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
TUESDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
TEMPER HEATING ON TUESDAY, BUT DRY WX IS FORESEEN UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING IN SRN TN AND FAR NW AL AND THRU THE REST OF AREA OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A RATHER SOLID POST FRONTAL PRECIP BAND LOOKS TO OCCUR
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP CLEARING TREND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION
OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING
ONCE AGAIN A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROF AND POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SEND
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION AND A POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS STILL BRINGS A
GOOD DOSE OF COLD ADVECTION AND A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA.
VISIBILITIES AT REGIONAL SENSORS IS GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER...BUT
HAS PERIODICALLY LOWERED TO LIFR AT KMSL ALREADY. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ATTM...BUT WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE AS LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING IFR AND AT LEAST TEMPO LIFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE AT KMSL MAINLY ARND 08-12Z. PREVAILING MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT
KHSV AROUND 10-13Z. FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AT BOTH TAF SITES
(KHSV/KMSL) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS/KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    81  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        83  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      81  56  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  78  53  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   80  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    81  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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