Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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