Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 291127
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TODAY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE ISOLATED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THIS SO WILL JUST
CONTINUE THE VCSH AT THE MOMENT. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
4-5KFT CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF 3KFT OR LESS
CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER THE RAIN
TODAY...4-5SM VIS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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