Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 030456
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

A WET, MEAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. CURRENTLY, A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS WITHIN AN
ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. COMPRESSED BTWN
THE MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND MCS INDUCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS
TIME AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. FOR THE LOCAL AREA...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY AL AND COMING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TN.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AS WELL. STILL EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND JUST LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THEY
ARE JUST SCATTERED OVER OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 06Z WHICH HIRES GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS.

ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THEY
HAVE NOT DECREASED AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED AND LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LIKELY
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS NOW WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE TSRA MENTION AFTER 10/11Z AS THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE BREAKS OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL GO WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA IN THE LATE
MORNING WITH A BREAK AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING OF
THE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 22-25KT POSSIBLE. CIGS MAY DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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