Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 282335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP...AROUND 30-35KT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 2-3KFT STRATUS LAYER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 00Z TAFS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 19/20Z SATURDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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