Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 271757
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1058 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP A RETREATING COOL/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN AN EARLIER
ONSET TO LIGHT RAIN THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD -- BEFORE A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER ROUND OF
RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT DUE TO
EASTWARD MOTION OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI -- HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS IN FORECAST
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS OTHERWISE LOOK TO BE
IN GOOD CONDITION...BUT DID LOWER FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 1-3
DEGREES BASED ON THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAINFALL.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF
NW/NC ALABAMA...WITH RADAR DATA INDICATING THAT -RA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NWD INTO TN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CIGS THIS AFTN...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR -RA AT MSL BASED ON EWD MOTION
OF ACTIVITY IN NRN MISS. A HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN MISS/AL -- WILL PUSH NEWD REACHING THE TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS BTWN 28/14-16Z. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CIGS DURING THIS
PERIOD ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS. SE/SSE FLOW OF 8-12 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING...BEFORE BCMG LGT/VRBL. A NNW WIND OF 8-12
KTS WILL DEVELOP BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ALZ001>004-007-016.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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