Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 060745
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
245 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS TN/NE AL
INDICATE A SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4000FT. THESE WERE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD A FEW HOURS AGO AND BASED ON THOSE TRENDS BELIEVE WE
SHOULD SEE THEM SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS IN AREAS
THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S AND WILL DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE. IF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NE DO HOLD ON
TONIGHT THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE
TN VALLEY.

THE CONUS IS UNDER A SEMI-OMEGA BLOCK TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MAKES
UP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BLOCK. THE WESTERN LOW IS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS BRINGING SOME ACTIVE WEATHER TO THAT REGION.
A PIECE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM, IT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES,
WHERE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH SUNNY
SKIES TODAY, WE WILL BE UNDER CAA AND ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MAIN HIGH
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM UP IN TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND A SLIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE.

UNFORTUNATELY, THE DRY/NICE WEATHER WON`T LAST, THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EJECTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE TN VALLEY GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PARENT LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, AND A SECONDARY
LOW MOVING OUT OF SW TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION UP INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SYSTEM SHOULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE TAKEN NE IN WESTERN TN/KY. HAVE TAILORED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH HIGHEST CHANCES TO OUR WEST AND TAPERING OFF TO THE
EAST.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE US. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW, RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. DIFFICULT TO TIME CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT,
SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR THE WRAP ARND CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. ANY CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. BY FRIDAY AFTN EXPECT A SCT CU FIELD BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z DUE
TO A LITTLE MOISTURE ARND 8H. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  49  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        73  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      71  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  71  49  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   70  49  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    70  47  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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