Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 070019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO FLIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. AWAITING PARTS
FOR REPAIRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED STRONG OMEGA TO FORCE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENCE LAYER THAT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY VIRGA MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES IN THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
PM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF SOLUTIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WENT ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER GFS
VALUES FOR THIS REASON TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERMAL TROUGH BASES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER THE
NEXT POLAR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL EPISODES THIS
SEASON...THEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPS STAY COOL TO MILD IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
MARDI GRAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADIENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN TAKES PLACE ASH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FLATTENS AND SURFACE POLAR HIGH MODERATES BY THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST AND USHERS ANOTHER
CANADIAN SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PRODUCES
FRONTAL RAINFALL NEXT FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT AND DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. IF THAT SHOT AT RAINFALL IS
MISSED...IT MAY BE A CONSIDERABLY LONG STRETCH OF DRYNESS BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TO FAVOR MORE LONGER DWELL TIME
MOISTURE. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ON THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE WINDS.  A
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SOME FRICTIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN WIND SPEED...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GALE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT SOME POINT IN
THE FUTURE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FALL BACK
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM 10 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6
TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NOHSEP SUPPORT.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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