Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 220809
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR
TO THE REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT
AND SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 76 TO 83
DEGREE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE AREA AND LOWS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR. THE
EURO IS A MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALSO LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THUS THE SURFACE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY PUSH
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES
DO NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 THROUGH 8 WITH A
HEAVIER RELIANCE ON THE EURO...WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO
FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  OVER THE
WEEKEND...A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.   THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  51  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  52  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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