Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 120547
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1147 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies and excellent visibility will prevail through the TAF
period, however a period of low level wind shear is expected
for a 2 to 5 hour period overnight mostly before 12z. West to
west-northwest winds of 10 knots or less at the surface are
expected to rise to 40 knots between 1500 and 2000 feet while
veering to northwest. Veering winds to north will remain gusty at
times through the day Tuesday after 12z over some of the coastal
and southshore of Lake Pontchartrain airports, however a more
gradual wind speed increase with height should not result in
substantial low level wind shear. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Deep trough over the eastern United States will lift out of the
area tonight into tomorrow and high pressure will build into the
area. An amplifying shortwave trough will dive south across the
southeastern United State Tuesday. A cold front will move through
the area with no precipitation. This will knock temperatures down
for a few days...highs dipping into the 50s and overnight lows
back down around freezing. A front moves into the region by
Thursday. No real chances of rain are expected until this weekend
as the sub- tropical jet carries Pacific moisture across Mexico
to the northern Gulf coast. This moisture looks like it will
interact with the cold front until Saturday and at that time most
of the precipitation would be along the coasts. Another trough
will quickly come into play at the end of the forecast period.
Moisture will begin to rise as surface high pressure shifts east
and southerly flow develops. The next appreciable chance of rain
will develop Sunday/Monday as a trough moves into the midsection
of the country then.

AVIATION...
VFR CAVU conditions expected all terminals next 24-30 hours.
Strong but dry cold frontal passage tonight will provide a period
of low level wind shear for a few hours overnight worthy of
carrying WS conditions at KMCB, KBTR and KHDC prior to 10Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Re-enforcing cold high pressure will surge off the coast overnight,
bringing stronger north winds to bring SCA conditions that will
linger through about mid-day Tuesday before easing during the
afternoon hours. A period of moderate westerly flow becomes
established middle of the week before another surge of high pressure
builds into the north gulf later in the week. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe;
         nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  55  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  41  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  43  59  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  47  58  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  44  57  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  42  58  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.