Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 010056
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Routine sounding terminated southeast of Slidell at an altitude of
107,100 feet or 20.3 miles above the surface.

No change in moisture content from this morning`s flight with a
precipitable water value of 1.55 inches. Airmass was unstable with
a CAPE of 3171 J/Kg and a lifted index of -6. The convective
temperature of 86 degrees allowed the development of isolated
convection this afternoon, which should start weakening then
dissipating after sunset. Freezing level tonight is near 14,000
feet with the wet bulb zero at 11,600 feet. The -20C level was at
25,800 feet.

Winds were generally less than 15 knots from the surface through
450 mb, then west to northwest from 450 mb to 75 mb. Peak wind was
61 knots at almost 49,000 feet. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 710 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated PoP and Weather this evening to reflect radar trends.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue until about 9 pm over east central Louisiana (west of
I-55) and portions of southwest Mississippi with mainly dry
conditions elsewhere. Also adjusted the hourly temperatures
slightly. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Discussion...
A little less coverage in showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area today. Most of the activity has been confined along
the coastlines of the forecast area along the seabreeze. This was
expected today and expect it to continue again for Wednesday, but
better chances along the western edge of the forecast area as high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the area fairly
dry. Expect above normal temperatures will persist with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most of the rain over the next few
days will be over the southern Plains with southern stream
shortwave trough slowly ejects into the southern United States.
The high pressure over the area will weaken and the shower and
storm coverage increases. Northern stream energy will send down a
weak front and that in tandem with the southern stream energy
will greatly increase rain chances going into the weekend. Will
carry likely pops this weekend. Going into early next week both
the GFS and ECMWF mostly clears the area of rainfall on Monday.
Will carry only a slight chance of rain Monday. High pressure
builds in there after and dry conditions should prevail. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside isolated tsra though some
increase in coverage may still take place before 02z.

MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  90  69  89 /  20  20  20  30
BTR  69  90  70  89 /  30  20  20  20
ASD  70  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20
MSY  73  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  20
GPT  73  88  73  87 /  20  20  20  20
PQL  69  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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