Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 022136
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WARM/HUMID AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE. FOG NEVER COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE AREA TODAY AND EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BECOME DENSE IN AT LEAST PATCHES AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...SPREADING IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9AM TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG MAY BEGIN CLEARING OUT
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO TO END THE ADVISORY BEFORE 9AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A GREAT SET UP FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A BIT MORE
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THIS RUN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS. THE MAJOR
CONCERN HERE IS THAT IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE PRECIP
MOVES OUT...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CERTAINLY THE BEST CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT AT THIS POINT TO INTRODUCE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEW ROADS TO KENTWOOD TO TYLERTOWN. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCLUDING ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT IT IS STILL THREE DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...ANYONE IN THESE AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES TO
EXPECTED IMPACTS.

THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS FORWARD PUSH AS IT NEARS THE COAST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AGAIN AS THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOL/DRY AIR TO REINFORCE THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE EURO IS
FAR SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS THIS SURGE IN.
THUS...IT IS INDICATING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS...BUT DOES INDICATE SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NOD TO
THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS
LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG SETTLE INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY COULD
IMPROVE AS EARLY AS 12Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
FOG...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER- FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

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