Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271427
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
927 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Current...Early morning radar/satellite images show the few small
convergent bands which developed N-W of GBI prior to sunrise have
become diffuse, with associated shower activity dissipating. After
clear conditions most of the overnight, clouds are beginning to
increase over the Treasure coast veering low level winds advect
shallow (AOB H85) but increasing (0.85") moisture seen in the XMR
RAOB NW-ward into/across the CWA today.

RAOB and DRWP data also show ESE-SE winds around 20KT in the lowest
1KM, veering to southerly and decreasing to 1round 10KT just above,
and still bone dry above H85.

Remainder of today...Nosig changes to the early morning philosophy.
Strong surface high pressure ridge now centered just offshore the
middle Atlantic seaboard will slide northeast, with low level winds
continuing to veer to southeast. Strength of BLYR flow will support
breezy conditions along the immediate coast and beaches. A slug of
low level moisture will round the western side of the ridge and
spread N-W from the Treasure coast early this morning across the
central and then northern CWA through sunset. High-res mesomodels
(HRRR/WRF) show diurnal convection of low-moderate intensity this
afternoon, with slightly better chance over the north, lingering an
hour or two post-sunset. Max temps ranging from around 80 along the
coast to L80s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR with developing BKN035-045 in diurnal
Cu/SC field. Isolated MVFR showers near 3-5SM/BKN025 shifting from
the Treasure and Space Coast aerodromes north and inland through
late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy networks show 3-4FT seas near shore, while
model guidance and 4-6FT well offshore. Current orientation of
the Cautionary Statement looks fine.

&&

UPDATE/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
DSS/LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Bragaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/

Tonight...Will forecast some low early evening rain chances across
nrn areas then will see only a slight shower chance mainly along the
Treasure coast overnight with low level southeast flow. Lighter
southeast flow inland and elevated boundary layer moisture will
support patchy fog across nrn areas and the interior. Lows in the
60s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure pushing off the eastern
seaboard will leave its axis overtop the central peninsula on
Tuesday before getting shunted southward on Wednesday. While this
will generate a steady southeast/south flow, moisture levels
through the period will remain benign (PWats between 1.00"-1.25")
and confined to the lowest levels of the troposphere (850mb and
below). Expect only isolated Atlantic showers on Tuesday, a few of
which will move onshore and produce trace/light rainfall amounts
along the coast, while Wednesday will feature a few pop-up
afternoon showers due to daytime heating. Coverage is expected to
remain at or below 20%.

Thursday...A fairly progressive flow pattern will replace mid-level
ridging over the east coast with a modestly amplified trough. The
weak southern portion of this trough will cross the state during the
day, allowing a weak/shallow frontal boundary to cross central
Florida Thursday or Thursday night. With the boundary becoming
oriented parallel to the mid/upper level flow, expect it to slow
considerably as it traverses the state. Weak moisture convergence
and isentropic lift along and behind the surface feature will bring
a low chance for showers, and have opted to keep thunder out of the
forecast for this package. Some cooling should reaching northernmost
CWA with max temps close to 80 (unless frontal timing slows), with
mid 80s central/south.

Friday-Monday...Zonal flow redevelops aloft. The surface boundary
will wash out over the southern Peninsula as broad high pressure
settles over the Carolina`s this weekend. This will bring a period
of moderate/strong onshore flow and cooler/drier wx to east central
Florida. Max temps in the 70s CWA-wide and mins in the 50s
north/interior portion of CWA and low/mid 60s south/coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect some VFR cloudiness in the 030-040 range to move onshore
along the coast from KMLB-KSUA early this morning and gradually
transition NW toward nrn terminals from KLEE-KDAB into mid to late
afternoon. Isold -SHRA may accompany the cloud band but probs too
low at this time for much of a mention in terminal forecasts.
Some late night fog is expected Mon night across the interior
which will be highlighted in next 12z terminal package.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...SE winds up to 15-20 knots today will necessitate SCEC
headlines for all marine zones except the Volusia nearshore waters
where winds will stay around 15 knots. Seas up to 5-6 ft offshore.

Tonight...Southeast flow continues to 10-15 knots near shore and
around 15 knots offshore. Seas will remain elevated around 5 ft
offshore.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Southeast winds near 15 kt or less, then S at
similar speeds Wednesday. Seas generally 3-5 ft, highest
offshore. Isolated-scattered showers through the period.

Thursday-Friday...A cold front moves south across the waters
Thursday. Prefrontal winds W/SW 5-15 kt shifts to W/NW with FROPA
during the afternoon north/central waters and late in the day
south. Strong high pressure building in behind the front will set
the stage for a period of hazardous boating conditions late this
week and into this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  82  66 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  84  64  85  66 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  82  68  81  67 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  67 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  84  64  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
SFB  83  64  84  66 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  83  66  84  67 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  82  67  81  67 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$



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