Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 200930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
430 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Threat for Severe Storms Sunday Afternoon/Evening...
...Very Hazardous Boating Conditions Developing Sunday into Early
Next Week...

Today...A weak shortwave trough will pass by to the north this
morning temporarily breaking down the upper ridge over the area.
Considerable mid and high cloudiness assocd with this feature will
filter sunshine but a southwest wind flow will produce max
temperatures in the lower 80s which is 10 degrees above normal.
Most of the shower activity will pass just north of the area but
cannot rule out a brief shower/sprinkle across north Lake/Volusia
counties this morning. Otherwise, will maintain a dry forecast.

Tonight...Increasingly moist southerly flow should produce low
clouds with patchy fog late. Low temps will continue to slowly
moderate with most areas holding in the lower 60s.

Saturday...Warm and dry conditions expected to continue across
east central Florida into Saturday, with showers/storms
associated with a passing mid level shortwave focused north of the
area. May see a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm move
northeast through the I-4 corridor late Saturday night as low
level moisture and southwest flow increases. Highs in the
afternoon will reach the low 80s over much of the region, with
mild temperatures overnight in the mid 60s.

Sunday...Models continue to be in fairly good agreement regarding
increasing strong/severe storm potential across the region on
Sunday, mainly during the afternoon through evening hours. Robust
cut off low moving eastward through the southern U.S. and 100-120kt
250mb jet across the southeast states will aid in the development
of a fast moving pre-frontal squall line moving from the eastern
Gulf and across the state. Temps reaching the low 80s ahead of
this band of convection and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will
result in more than sufficient instability across the area as it
moves through.

A 50 knot low level jet is forecast to overspread the region into
the afternoon ahead of the front, favoring strong to severe
straight line winds as the main threat with the squall line.
Also, helicity values up to 200-300 m2/s2 will produce the
potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that
can develop out ahead of the main line. Exact timing may change
slightly, as this system is still a couple days away, but model
guidance indicates squall line moving through Sunday
afternoon/evening, and pushing offshore the Treasure coast by
midnight.

Monday-Thursday...Axis of low aloft will swing through the state
early Monday and may continue to enhance lift for light
rain/showers in the morning. Otherwise a strong westerly flow
will usher in cooler/drier air behind the front early next week,
with rain chances ending and temperatures returning to more normal
values for this time of year (highs upper 60s/low 70s and lows in
the upper 40s/low 50s). Temperatures will then slowly climb
through mid week, with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. Considerable high cloudiness will limit fog formation
this morning but localized IFR vsbys poss through 13Z mainly
affecting DAB. Winds will be from the South and southwest around
10 knots. Conditions look more favorable for stratus and some fog
to spread northward after 06Z in increasing moist southerly flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...High pressure ridge over the Bahamas will produce
southwest winds 10-15 knots. The offshore winds will suppress the
seas nearshore around 2 feet with 3 feet offshore.

Saturday-Tuesday...Boating conditions will deteriorate through the
weekend becoming hazardous to very hazardous Sunday/Sunday night
ahead of a passing frontal boundary and pre-frontal squall line
pushing offshore through the afternoon/evening hours. Southwest
winds will increase up to 20-30 knots, with a Gale Watch/Warning
potentially needed for the offshore waters Sunday night through
Monday as a strong westerly breeze continues behind the front.
This strong westerly flow will keep highest seas farther offshore,
but still quite elevated up to 9-11 feet through Monday night.

Winds gradually decrease out of the west-northwest into Tuesday,
but boating conditions will continue to be poor to hazardous.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  82  63  82  66 /   0  10  10  20
MLB  81  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  82  60  83  67 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  80  63  81  67 /  10  10  10  30
SFB  82  63  82  65 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  82  64  82  66 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  81  58  82  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich


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