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000
FXUS62 KMLB 231836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING  OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE LOUISIANA DELTA REGION AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTH AND IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE TROUGHING KEEPS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RESULTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED WARM MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
70S. LITTLE OR NO WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN MORE MUGGY TOWARD
SUNRISE.

THU-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TO
THE EAST...OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMA ISLAND. DEEP LAYERED
AND WARM MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD/EAST OF THE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP FEED WARM MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR INTO/OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA BOTH DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS
REMAINS WELL NORTH. CONVECTION WILL BE MESOSCALE INITIATION SUCH AS
SEA AND LAKE BREEZES INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS. SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN STORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINWATER ON ROADS AND
LOW LYING SPOTS.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE UPPER 80S
AND AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND BEACHES.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION
WEEKEND...TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SO
DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHOULD NUDGE BACK A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IS STILL INDICATED THOUGH. MOS POPS
CONTINUE LOW...AROUND 30 PERCENT BUT THE GFS SHOWS A RIBBON OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH POPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO...40-50 PERCENT.

MON-NEXT WED...A RETURN OF THE RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS
INDICATED. THIS WILL SHUNT THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BACK SOUTHWARD AND
PRODUCE A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS SUGGESTS DRIER AIR
WORKING IN MON INTO TUE...QUITE A BIT IN FACT...WITH THE 00Z RUN
KNOCKING PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS LOWERS MOS POPS
TO 20-30 PERCENT MON.

WHILE GETTING SOME OF THIS DRYING ALOFT...WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ATLANTIC...IS REASONABLE...WE ARE NOT SURE
THAT IT WILL NEARLY COMPLETELY OVERWHELM THE RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA RECENTLY. WITH AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR HIGHER EAST COAST STORM COVERAGE...
WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MOISTENING
AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH COULD EVEN BOOST POPS
HIGHER BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR. TEMPO MVFR FIRST AT THE COAST THEN
SPREADING INLAND TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FINALLY
GETS GOING. VFR AFTER 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. FEW-SCT BLO FLO FL010
APPROX 10Z-14Z OR UNTIL THE LOWEST LAYERS MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...
NOAA BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND
2 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 010 AT 120NM OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DUE TO CONVECTION/STORMS OVER THE GULF
STREAM TO THE WEST AND 4 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH YIELDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SEA 2 TO 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE.

THU-FRI...AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZES FORM
AND PUSH WESTWARD.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION
WEEKEND...THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD NUDGE BACK
TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT BUT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CHANGE IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ENOUGH SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE COAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  91 /  30  30  30  40
MCO  75  93  76  93 /  20  40  30  40
MLB  76  89  77  89 /  20  40  20  30
VRB  74  89  74  89 /  20  40  20  30
LEE  73  94  74  93 /  20  30  30  40
SFB  75  93  76  93 /  30  30  30  40
ORL  75  93  75  93 /  20  40  30  40
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
IMPACT WX...PLOTKIN
PUBLIC SERVICE...CARTWRIGHT
FORECAST...WIMMER