Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 271923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF  15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  71  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLB  74  85  72  85 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  74  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
LEE  72  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  71  87  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
ORL  71  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
FPR  75  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.