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000
FXUS62 KMLB 211957
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...EARLY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS STABILIZED
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL NOW UNDER A CANOPY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
AS EXPECTED...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS PUSHING TOWARD THE FL WEST
COAST HOWEVER. MARTIN/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES ARE AN EXCEPTION AS THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER WITH CONVECTION YET TODAY SO THAT
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE THRU EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...
POCKETS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVE
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER OR WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
OVER LAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REFIRE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND MAY BRUSH THE COAST ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE SO WILL HOLD
ONTO HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THERE OVERNIGHT.

WED...UPPER LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA OPENS UP AND LIFTS NE.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50
PERCENT. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO
THE FAR INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS BROAD UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE US. MID LVLS WILL DRY
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES NOT PUSH INTO AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL KEEP EVE POPS
WED NIGHT AND FOLLOW GUIDANCE OF SLIGHTLY LOWER PCPN CHCS (NEAR
CLIMO) ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL FEATURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE
FRIDAY BUT FLOW WILL VEER QUICKLY ONSHORE AND INCREASE AS STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.

PREV DISC...
SAT-MON...WRN ATLC H50 TROUGH WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
PERSISTS OVER THE ERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY STOUT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER ECFL WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES SAT
(15-20) ALONG WITH ABSENCE OF TS. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MEAN DRY AIR WORKING INTO ECFL TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST OVER LAND
SUN-MON...THOUGH A STRAY ATLC SHOWER COULD REACH THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO NORMS OF L-M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND U80S INLAND. MINS IN THE U60S INLAND TO L70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT EARLIER END TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE MAY AFFECT
MLB-SUA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INTRR TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...WEAKENING ATLC RIDGE WILL SLACKEN THE PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE WATERS SO SE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...THEN E/SE AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTN. PERSISTENT
E/NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER...3-4 FEET...THAN WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED IN SUCH WIND FLOW.

POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...PRESS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG E FLOW. SCA LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  30
MCO  68  88  68  90 /  30  50  30  30
MLB  70  85  69  87 /  40  50  30  30
VRB  68  86  69  86 /  40  50  30  30
LEE  68  88  69  89 /  30  50  30  30
SFB  69  89  69  91 /  30  50  30  30
ORL  70  88  70  90 /  30  50  30  30
FPR  68  86  68  87 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...BLOTTMAN