Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 020737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AS NEARING THE BAHAMAS. LATEST RADAR WAS
ONLY SHOWING A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE A
WEAK ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT PATTERN
WITH THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. HAVE GONE WITH 20 POPS AT THE
COAST AND 30 INLAND AGAIN.

ONE FEATURE THAT IS DIFFERENT IS A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY JET STREAK THAT WILL SLICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT LOCALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER RIBBON OF AIR ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA.
MID-UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAY INCREASE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SO HAVE CONTINUED OUR
MENTION OF A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

WED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TRACKS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF REGION EXPECTED TO BE IN
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER REGION AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE BUMPED UP COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 30-40 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING IN THE FROM THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH POPS REMAINING ISOLATED ALONG THE REST
OF THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH ALNG WITH THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BRING POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

SAT-TUES...INVERTED TROUGH DAMPENS OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE SOUTH WILL REACH INTO S GA OR N FL...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OR ACROSS THE REGION
PREVENTING FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
TROUGH TO KEEP POPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM...THOUGH
EAST COAST DOMINANT...WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STILL EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR IN STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. COOLING ALOFT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW STORMS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

WED-SUN...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10KTS INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
WILL SEE FLOW VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS
DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI-SUN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AS AREA GETS SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD WED NIGHT-FRI...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  93  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  20  10  20  30
VRB  89  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  40
LEE  93  74  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  88  73  90  75 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES




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