Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 022030
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DENSE FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...

...OCEAN SWELLS WILL ELEVATE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT...

...WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...

CURRENT INTO TONIGHT...SEA FOG/STRATUS STILL LURKING ALONG THE COAST
OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. WHILE SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS
AREA FINALLY THINNED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER
BOTH LAND AND WATER NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND WHILST
ADVECTING ANY FOG THAT REDEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC BACK ONSHORE...AND
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. SHOWED THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT SOME EARLY (EVENING) ISSUANCES OF STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES
SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT AS ANTICIPATED. FOG MOST LIKELY FOR VOLUSIA/
BREVARD...OWING TO COMBINATION OF COOLER SHELF WATERS...WEAKER
SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND FOG/STRATUS PERSISTING JUST OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...ANOTHER WARM DAY
ON TAP WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE ENHANCED BY LOCAL ECSB CIRC.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH U7-S ALONG THE COAST AND L80S
INLAND...A BIT COOLER ALONG VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL MAINTAINS A S/SW WIND FLOW AND RIDGE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE STATE. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO
MID WEEK WHICH WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY BUT WILL LEAVE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR EARLY WED MORNING FOR NOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THU NIGHT-MON...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE INTO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL QUICKLY VEER WINDS TO THE EAST AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHER MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE COAST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS
DEVELOP.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY SAT BUT MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THEREFORE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK LOW AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN SUN. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
LEAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE WENT PRETTY PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBY AND
CIGS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE ATLC MAINLY
VRB-MLB-DAB STARTING 02Z-05Z AND THEN ACROSS THE INLAND AERODROMES
06Z-09Z AND REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE VIS SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS BAND HAS
RETREATED SEAWARD AND THINNED FOR THE TIME BEING...EXPECT SEA FOG
AND STRATUS TO EXPAND/THICKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THUS...
NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE DFA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW 5-10KT WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

WED-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING BREEZY AT
TIMES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST WED...BUT OTHERWISE SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED.

THU NIGHT-SAT...WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY VEERING
TO THE E/NE FRI. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL LEAD TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  74  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AVIATION...CRISTALDI


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