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000
FXUS62 KMLB 210738
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW 60S WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME BRIEF
DRIZZLE MAY FALL FROM LOW MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL START
OUT WITH CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
MODELS HINTING AT GRADUAL CLOUD IMPROVEMENTS IN TERMS OF HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS AS DRIER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AROUND EARLY EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. N/NW MORNING WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO
N/NNE IN THE AFTERNOON. NNE/NE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATION UPWARD WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/N. BREVARD COASTS...UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 80 DEGREE
READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S POSSIBLE ST.
LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS.

TUE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START OFF QUITE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACTING AS A CAP ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION EVEN AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT FALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL MODIFY CLOSE TO NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 80S.

WED-THU...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION WED. THE TAIL END OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HANG
UP TO OUR NORTH. THE 00Z GFS GENERATED A LITTLE PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT POPS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT SO WILL NOT ADD
ANY RAIN CHANCES YET. ON THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN
PUSHING OFFSHORE AND THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GFS INDICATES A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WHICH COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND
WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS JUST YET. TEMPS WILL MODIFY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S BY THU AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

FRI-NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z GFS SHOWED UNPERTURBED...NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. EVEN WITH THESE WARM
TEMPS...MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE MENTIONABLE POPS AT
THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH NO NOTABLE IMPULSES ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...NUISANCE MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE STUBBORN IN PLACES. VFR AFT
14Z AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
PULL SLOWLY ENE AWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CULPRIT FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

NNW/N WINDS 20 KTS AND GUSTY OFFSHORE/15-20 KTS NEAR SHORE WILL
GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH LATE DAY AND WILL BECOME 10-15 KTS THIS
EVENING CONTINUING TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
WILL EXPIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE NORTH OF BREVARD COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE SCA`S ELSEWHERE AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE IF
NEAR SHORE LEGS SOUTH OF VOLUSIA-BREVARD LINE CAN BE DROPPED EARLIER
THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 20Z/4PM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SHORE OUTSIDE OF THE SCA.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7
FT NEAR SHORE WHERE ADVISORIES EXIST. SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT NEXT FORECAST SHIFT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AN SCA
FOR SEAS AFTER 20Z/4PM FOR OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM MARINE LEGS AS SWAN
MODEL SUGGESTS.

TUE-FRI...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING TUE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MAY KICK UP WEST FLOW TO 15 KNOTS. ONCE IT DEPARTS WELL
SEAWARD...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GULF/FLORIDA TO FORM A RIDGE WITH AN
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH WATERS BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A
MORE TYPICAL REGIME WITH SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FOR SOME DIURNAL
INFLUENCES TO 15 KNOTS LATE THU AND AGAIN LATE FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  82  61 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  80  59  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  79  59  83  62 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  77  59  81  62 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  80  59  84  63 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  79  58  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  80  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  78  61  81  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY