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000
FXUS62 KMLB 090732
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
A FEW DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS AND BY AFTERNOON SOME THIN CIRRUS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL
MODERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AT THE COAST TO UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 INLAND...MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. PATCHY GROUND
FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A NORTHEAST SWELL IMPACTING THE BEACHES WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK.

MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN U/L SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF NOW SHOW SIMILAR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT IT WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S MOST AREAS.

WED NIGHT-SAT...THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
INTO LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
SLIGHT HIGHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN INTO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS NOW ON BOARD AS
WELL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER NORTHERLY FLOW TO ONSHORE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL VALUES. DRIER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WAS PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WITH
PREDOMINANT VISIBILITY MVFR THOUGH ASOS WILL REPORT INTERMITTENT
IFR. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SEAS ELEVATED. THIS WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT TO SMALL CRAFT
EXITING INLETS THIS MORNING DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE...WHERE ROUGH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS DECREASING TO 2-3 FEET. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE UP TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LIKELY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  53  78  56 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  79  55  81  57 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  76  56  79  58 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  77  54  80  57 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  78  55  79  56 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  78  55  80  57 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  78  58  80  59 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  77  54  80  58 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH