Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301946
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LACK OF DEVELOPED CU OVER MUCH OF AREA AT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX SPELLS LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED COVERAGE FOR
PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE TO
ISOLD PHRASING THE REST OF THE EVENING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE I-4
CORRIDOR WWD. LIGHT ONSHORE STEERING WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC WATERS IN WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.

SUNDAY...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SCT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT SO IT WILL BE BOUNDARY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FOCUSING
INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

MON-LATE WEEK...(PREV DISC) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
POSITION JUST TO OUR NORTH IS INDICATED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO LUMBER SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT SUBDUED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT INDICATED BY MOS
LOOK GOOD MON-TUE. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER ON WED...THERE
SHOULD BE MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE
GONE WITH 40 POPS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS. THE MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THU-FRI SO
POPS WILL RISE TO 40 PERCENT OR GREATER AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDER MNLY INLAND THROUGH 02Z THEN VFR CONDS
AFT 02Z. WITH SOME ISOLD COASTAL SHRA S OF COF.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUN....SEAS MAINLY 2 FT. THERE IS INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL
ENTERING THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE DURING SUN.
AROUND 2 FT SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-WED...SURFACE RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SPEEDS LOOK MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY
FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS. THE
MARINE STORMS MAY START TO PACK MORE PUNCH TUE/WED AS A POCKET OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  75  91 /  20  30  20  30
MCO  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  76  90  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  75  91  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  77  95  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  77  95  77  93 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....ULRICH



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