Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 050727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONALLY COOL TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONLY
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24H AS DRY POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. AVBL GUID SUGGETS WINDS
WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY AT MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
TREASURE CST AND LAKE OKEE REGION WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH EXPECTED. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 80 TO
84. OVERNIGHT THE COOL DRY AIRMASS WL FALL TO UNSEASONALLY COOL
READINGS WITH 50S FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE SPACE
AND TREASURE CST BARRIER ISLANDS. AFTERNOON GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE AT DUSK.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WILL SEND OCNL IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT WILL JUST BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI
NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING OVER LAND.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COOL
FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL
LIE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE U70S/L80S AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU THU. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH
PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CREEP BACK WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
AGAIN BY AROUND MON.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24-48H. SFC WND G25-30KTS EXPECTED FM 05/15Z-05/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WLY/NW FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. A
CAUTION WL BE ADVERTISED NEAR SHORE WITH CHOPPY SEAS AS ONE
DEPARTS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CST. WV HGHTS NEAR 6-7 FT MAINLY BEYOND
15 NM FROM THE CST DUE TO THE FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CHOPPY SEAS WL OCCUR DUE TO SFC WINDS WITHIN 15 NM.

FRI-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EASTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THRU EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON FALLING TO 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN AOB 3
FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  52  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  83  53  79  54 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  79  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  80  57  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  53  80  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK



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