Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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266
FXUS62 KMLB 181453
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Again late tonight but not as
widespread as last night...

This cold outbreak outperformed early this morning with freezing
temperatures reaching Lake Okeechobee and Fort Pierce. A Hard Freeze
occurred north and west of Orlando. Sanford reached 25F breaking
their record low of 26F set in 1977. Orlando missed their record low
(26F 1977) by 1 degree.

Despite considerable sunshine, temperatures will be slow to rise
through the 40s. Forecast high temps look good with widespread 50s
for highs despite considerable sunshine. In fact, Volusia county
will struggle to reach 50. Marine stratocu has begun to push onshore
the treasure coast as low level flow veers toward the NE. This
should limit high temps to the upper 50s there. Despite the much
below normal temps, do not think any record cool highs will be tied
or broken today.

Attention has turned to tonight with the potential for another
freeze event but limited to northern sections. High pressure over LA
this morning will spread east with a ridge axis extending across
north FL tonight. This will allow a light N/NW drainage flow to
develop at the sfc but a light NE flow will exist just above the
boundary layer. This should bring some marine clouds across the
Treasure coast resulting in noticeably milder temps preventing any
frost or freeze concerns.

Although dewpoints will be gradually rising/recovering, they are
forecast to remain below 32F across the northern sections. And with
good radiational cooling expected there under clear skies and very
light winds, expect freezing temperatures once again north and west
of Orlando, though not as cold as this morning. So will likely
upgrade the Freeze Watch in Lake and Volusia to a Warning and
tentatively planning on including Seminole and Orange counties,
based on what the new 12Z model guidance suite depicts. Finally,
with lighter winds and rising dewpoints, there is a better chance
for frost outside of the freeze warning area, including Brevard,
Osceola and Okeechobee.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGs will affect coastal terminals VRB-SUA as
low level flow veers NE and advects marine stratocu onshore.
Otherwise VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to current coastal waters forecast. NOAA Buoy
009 continues to show solid Advisory conditions over the Atlc with
NW winds 20G25kt and seas 6-8FT near shore and 9-10FT offshore.
Winds/seas gradually decrease from late afternoon through tonight,
falling below the 20KT/7FT SCA threshold prior to midnight. Will
still need to maintain a Cautionary Statement for the offshore
marine legs after the SCA expiration late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(previous) Northwest winds veer to north with speeds
dropping back to 10-12MPH. Cold temps and low height of subsidence
cap will keep morning and early afternoon mixing heights pretty low
which is common during strong cold outbreaks. Expect smoke plumes to
cap and spread out at fairly low heights, especially for early-mid
morning ignitions.

Min RH values will drop below 30 percent for the interior central and
northern counties (Lake/Seminole/Orange/Osceola/Inland Volusia) with
some L-M20s from around the I-4 corridor N and W.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  31  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  52  36  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  55  38  64  49 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  56  41  65  50 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  51  32  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  52  34  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  52  36  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  57  40  66  50 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     Volusia County-Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Kelly/Bragaw



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