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000
FXUS62 KMLB 010757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT... REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA... ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN PWATS OFF THE EVENING SOUNDINGS WITH
READINGS ARND 1.5" AT KJAX/KTBW...INCREASING TO 2.3" AT KMFL.
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 10-11C
AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C. MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
MOST OF THE AREA RUNNING ARND 5.5C/KM. ALOFT...H30-H20 WINDS OVER
CENTRAL FL ARE AOB 15KTS... INCREASING TO 30-40KTS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. WHILE THIS IS GENERATING WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD...MID LVL VORTICITY IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS PARKED OVER THE S PENINSULA.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL LIFT N AS ITS SUPPORTING
H30-H20 JET STREAK LIFTS INTO THE N ATLC. AS THE TROFFING PATTERN
OVER THE ERN CONUS DAMPENS OUT...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL
DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
WX FEATURE. WEAK SRLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE...AS WILL DEEPER
MOISTURE AS THE SRLY WINDS NUDGE THE DRIER AIR BACK TO THE WEST.

WITH THE THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10KTS OR LESS...
BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL FORM...BUT WILL MAKE SLOW
INLAND PROGRESS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER STORM
COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES CLIMBING ABV THE 2.0" MARK BY 18Z. HOWEVER...THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTION...WHILE THE NEAR
TOTAL LACK OF MID LVL VORTICITY AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
LEND THEMSELVES TO HIGH COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD BURN ITSELF OUT
OVER THE INTERIOR ARND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS INDICATED BLO 50PCT POPS...REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LOW DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME SOME OF THIS...BUT WILL REQUIRE SVRL HRS OF
HEATING AND MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS TO LIGHT THE FUSE. SRLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S INTERIOR...FORMATION OF
THE SEA BREEZE BY EARLY AFTN SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE U80S.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SRLY FLOW TO
KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U70S.

WEEKEND...A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
INTERACT WITH A SUBTLE SFC WAVE APCHG FROM THE BAHAMAS DURING THE
PERIOD TO HELP PRODUCE SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WEAKLY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS COUPLED
WITH A BAGGY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SFC SHOULD FAVOR
BOUNDARY INDUCED SHOWERS WITH INLAND FOCUS FOR BEST PCPN CHCS BY
MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO
NEUTRAL TO WARM TEMPS EXISTING @H5. SUNDAY RAIN COVERAGE A
CATEGORY HIGHER DUE TO CLOSER INFLUENCE OF SFC WAVE TO AREA.

EXTENDED...WL BE WATCHING FOR BERTHA IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER TO
EMERGE NORTH OF HISPANOLA. CURRENT NHC TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AS A LOW END STORM EARLY MON THEN RECURVING
WELL EAST OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH EARLY TUE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH RECURVES BERTHA
SHOULD INFLUENCE LOCAL CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SCT PCPN WITH
GENERALLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO CHC OF STORMS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE CONDS WITH ABSENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...S/SW WINDS AOB 5KTS...OCNL CIGS BTWN
FL040-060 S OF KTIX-KISM. BTWN 01/16Z-01/18Z...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORCE A SFC WNDSHFT TO E/SE ARND 10KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN
01/18Z-01/24Z...SEA BREEZE WILL DRIFT INLAND TO VCNTY OF THE FL
TURNPIKE...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS. BTWN 02/00Z-02/03Z...CHC MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KTIX-KISM...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KTIX-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST OBS FROM THE LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK
SHOWING 10-15KT S/SE WINDS WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTION
IS PUTTING THE LCL ATLC IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
RESULTING IN CHOPPY/ROUGH CONDITIONS WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND 4SEC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E/SE ALONG THE COAST ARND MIDDAY AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK SAT AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS
OVER S FL DRIFTS N INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.

WEEKEND SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH AN SLOW AND
STEADY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERTHA TRACK NEARS THE WESTERN
ATLC WATERS. SEA HGHTS IN THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE POSSIBLE AROUND TUE-
WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  91  76 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  93  76  94  75 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  30
VRB  88  73  90  75 /  40  20  30  30
LEE  93  76  94  77 /  50  30  40  30
SFB  94  76  94  77 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  93  76  94  77 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  88  73  90  75 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST