Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 211456
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
956 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...MORE HUMID AND WARMER THROUGH WED...
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY INTO MON THEN AGAIN LATE TUE
AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...

CURRENTLY...
A FEW STORMS SINCE EARLY AM OVER THE EASTERN GULF ARE ASCD WITH
FAVORABLE JET ASCD LIFT AND PRESENCE OF UPR WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SE STATES. A REVIEW OF AM SOUNDINGS FROM TBW AND XMR SHOW
SUITABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
BEACHLINE EXPRESSWAY. THIS MOVES UP THE PERIOD FOR MENTIONING STORMS
ABOUT SIX HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. RAPID STEERING AT STORM LEVEL
WL LEAD TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN AFFECTED AREAS ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTING. DIGITAL AND TEXT PKGS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR ADDITION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER.

(FROM PREV DISC)...STATIONARY FRONT LAYING INSIDE A WEAK INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW GOMEX ACRS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCRSG MOISTURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.4"...UP FROM 0.8" FROM THE 20/00Z FLIGHT...A FEW
POCKETS OF DRY AIR REMAIN BLO THE H70 LYR THAT INDICATE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE LOADING. TO THE S...KMFL HAS MOISTENED TO
1.2" UP FROM 0.9" FROM 20/00Z BUT STILL SHOWS THE REFLECTION OF A
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ABV A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H80-H75 LYR.
TO THE N...BOTH KJAX/KTAE ARE NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H100-H70 LYR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ABV AN INVERSION IN THE H70-H60 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
OVER THE GOMEX LARGELY AOA 80PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 50PCT BUT AS
HIGH AS 90PCT WITHIN THE VCNTY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 22/06Z
THROUGH 15Z-21/18Z...S 5-8KTS WITH VFR CONDS. BTWN
21/18Z-21/22Z...INTERIOR SITES S/SW 4-7KTS WITH MVFR/ISOLD SHRA AND
TS N OF LINE FM KISM-KCOF...COASTAL SITES S/SE 6-9KTS. AFT
21/22Z...S/SE AOB 5KTS.

FM 21/18Z-22/03Z...S OF KCOF-KISM SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. AFT
22/03Z...N OF KTIX-KISM PREVAILING MVFR IN NMRS/WDSPRD RA WITH PDS
IFR +RA...S OF KTIX-KISM CHC MVFR SHRAS.

CIGS:
N OF KCOF-KISM: THRU 22/03Z...BTWN FL060-080 WITH PDS MVFR BTWN
FL015-025 IN SCT SHRAS. AFT 22/03Z...MVFR BTWN FL010-020.

S OF KCOF-KLAL: THRU 22/03Z...BTWN FL080-100 WITH PDS MVFR BTWN
FL020-030 IN ISOLD -SHRAS. AFT 22/03Z...BTWN FL060-080 WITH PDS MVFR
BTWN FL015-025 IN SCT -SHRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING WX CONDS AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR KEEPS THE LCL PGRAD DISRUPTED AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRAS. SFC WNDS S-SE BTWN 4-8KTS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SWD...VRBL AOB 5KTS N OF THE CAPE IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT. SEAS
AOB 2FT...BUILDING TO 2-3FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG AFT MIDDAY.

N OF THE CAPE...SCT SHRAS AFT MIDDAY...BCMG NMRS/WDSPRD WITH ISOLD
TSRAS IN AFTN/EVE. S OF THE CAPE...ISOLD/SCT SHRAS AFT
MIDDAY...CONTG THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW




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