Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261341
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION WITH DRY/STABLE MID LEVEL AIR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AS INDICATED BY MORNING SOUNDING AT TAMPA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED MOISTENING AND STEEPENING OF LAPSE
RATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FORECAST AT LEAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THEREFORE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DEEP CONVECTION
DURING DAYTIME HEATING.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING
SO THAT WILL DELAY SOLAR INSOLATION SOME...BUT THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASING MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD FORM NEAR THE COAST AND PROPAGATE A
DISCONTINUOUS BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE CONVECTION IS SHOWN
FOCUSING MAINLY ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSING STEADILY
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD DELAY CONVECTION A
LITTLE AND MIGHT TWEAK POPS DOWN TO 60 PERCENT TOO.

WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES CONFINED TO AFTER 18Z. PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED.  A FEW STRONG GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS INDICATED
WITH A SWELL KEEPING SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 4 FEET.  MAIN HAZARD
CONSIDERATION WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KNOTS AND A FEW COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI


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