Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 171944
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Saturday...Eastern CONUS surface high will slide eastward
into the western Atlantic as a trailing ridge axis settles southward
across central Florida. Prevailing NE flow will slacken overnight,
with potential for some patchy late night fog N/W of I-4. Winds
become light SE to S-SW by Saturday afternoon.Some cirrus may start
to stream overhead late in the day, however overall conditions look
mainly sunny and warmer, with max temps reaching the L80s. Overnight
mins mainly in the M-U50s, with some L50s over the far north, and
near 60F in the ORL metro and along the immediate coast.

Sunday-Monday...Low-level high pressure well east of the Carolinas
will continue to move out to sea ahead of a cold front approaching
the East Coast and northern Florida early Sunday morning.

Moisture associated with this frontal boundary will not be overly
impressive and pretty shallow in nature resulting in only 20-30%
precip chances areawide.  As far as timing is concerned...clouds and
rain chances will increase from north to south as the day progresses
beginning after sunrise Sunday morning along and north of the I-4
corridor.  Areas farther south will see the best rain chances in the
late morning through late afternoon with the Treasure Coast back
through Okeechobee County remaining dry through late afternoon. Some
showers could stick around for the Treasure Coast through early
overnight Sunday before coming to an end.

Behind the front, winds will turn northwesterly and then northerly
as high pressure builds in over the Gulf Coast states.  This will
usher much drier air into the area beginning late Sunday afternoon
for northern areas into overnight Sunday for the far southern areas
with skies quickly clearing out as the drier airmass overtakes East
Central Florida.  Low temperatures on Monday morning will be pretty
chilly with mid to upper 40s possible north of I-4.  Lows will
generally be low to mid 50s all other areas with upper 50s to low
60s for the Treasure Coast.

The area of high pressure will continue to slide eastward on Monday
with winds becoming northeasterly to easterly with breezy conditions
along the coast.  Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with
no rain in the forecast and highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday...High pressure pushes off the mid Atlantic coast with
return flow developing as the front over south Florida lifts back to
the north. Models offer differing solutions on the development of an
inverted trough or weak low along the boundary as shortwave energy
passes overhead Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, given the increase in
moisture and low level convergence near the boundary, expect an
uptick in precipitation chances areawide along with a low chance for
thunder that will remain confined to the coastal waters (for now).
Capped PoPs at 50% given the uncertainty in the amount of surface
development, but would not be surprised if further increases become
necessary in future updates. Noticeable climb in dewpoints (mid 60s)
and temps (upper 70s) expected in the increasingly moist southeast
flow.

Wednesday-Friday...Unsettled pattern continues into the extended as
a second, stronger trough digs into the Gulf of Mexico and develops
into a closed (or nearly closed) low. Models continue to offer
differing solutions of synoptic features during this time frame, but
in general agree that the mid/upper level feature will induce
surface cyclogenesis over the central and eastern Gulf. Latest 12Z
GFS (and to a lesser extent the 12Z ECMWF) indicates a slightly more
progressive trough compared to their earlier run with low pressure
making its closest approach between late Thursday (GFS) and late
Friday (ECMWF). Given the uncertainties in the forecast, have opted
to cap PoPs at 50% late in the period as we await future guidance.
Warmer temps (mid/upper 70s) expected in south/southeast flow out
ahead of the low pressure, though remaining tempered given the ample
cloud cover expected.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Patchy BR/MIFG possible over the NW aerodromes from
09Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Saturday...Surface ridge axis settles south over
the local Atlantic through Saturday afternoon. This will result in
NE winds of winds veering to east at 10-13KT this evening, veering
to SE and then south at around 10KT on Saturday. Seas will be slow
to subside, remaining in the 3-4FT range along the immediate coast,
and 4-5FT farther offshore.

Sunday-Monday...Gradually deteriorating boating conditions from
north to south through the day Sunday as a cold front moves through
the area. Southwest to westerly winds will turn northwesterly and
northerly 15-20 knots nearshore and around 20 knots offshore as the
front passes.  Seas build to 4-6 feet Sunday night into Monday
morning with 6-7 feet near the Gulf Stream.  Conditions should
improve somewhat through the day on Monday as winds are forecast to
decrease slightly with seas gradually subsiding.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Winds veer to the southeast on Tuesday as the
old front over south Florida returns north as a warm front. Models
indicate a weak inverted trough developing along the boundary which
will weaken winds from 15-20 knots early Tuesday to around 10 knots
Wednesday. Seas slowly improve from 5-7 feet early Tuesday to 3-5
feet by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  80  62  74 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  58  82  60  76 /   0   0  10  30
MLB  60  80  61  80 /   0   0   0  30
VRB  58  81  60  80 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  58  81  62  74 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  58  82  61  76 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  60  82  62  76 /   0   0  10  30
FPR  57  80  60  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi/AVIATION
MID TERM...Combs
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Ulrich



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