Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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358
FXUS62 KMLB 280848
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
448 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Weak high pressure ridge over the area will produce light
and variable winds turning onshore in a sea breeze along the coast
this afternoon. There should be some scattered stratocumulus
along the treasure coast this morning which should diminish behind
the sea breeze. Then the east and west coast sea breezes should
collide over the interior very late in the day/early evening over
the interior, roughly from Lake George to the Four Corners. Have
increased cloud cover for this but atmosphere looks too dry to
support measurable rain so have maintained a dry forecast. High
temperatures ranging from near 80 at the coast to the mid 80s
interior which is about 5 degrees above normal. Lows tonight
mainly in the lower 60s with a pocket of mid 50s over the south
interior (Okeechobee and inland St Lucie).

Proximity of the ridge axis is producing very light to calm winds
and clear skies, increasing the chance for patchy fog early this
morning. In particular, the fog will mix with smoke from
smoldering fires and become locally dense through 9 am.

Wed-Wed night...Weak shortwave ridging aloft moves across the FL
peninsula, then the flow flattens back out late in the period. At
the surface high pressure ridging over the south-central peninsula
continues to weaken with the high center near the northeast
Bahamas. The GFS shows a weak back-door boundary sagging southward
toward our northern coastal waters but becoming hardly
discernible by sunrise Thu morning. Generally light/variable winds
in the morning with an onshore sea breeze component developing in
the afternoon along the east coast moving slowly inland thru
early evening. Partly cloudy skies with conditions dry. Highs will
range from the L80s at the coast with M-U80s further into the
interior. Lows generally in the 60s, except U50s in the normally
coolest locations over the interior. Will highlight some patchy
fog potential in the grids/zones, especially inland from the
coast.

Thu-Tue...An intense upper cyclone over the central CONUS early in
the period remains forecast to track eastward and off of the mid
Atlc coast Sat afternoon. This will push a weak surface trough
across the area on Sat, preceded by a broken band of showers and
isolated storms which should weaken in coverage/intensity upon
approach to CWA Fri aftn/evening, all in association with some
energy aloft ahead of the large upper cyclone to the north. Some
residual moisture lingering around and especially south of KMCO may
allow for additional light precipitation ahead/along approaching
trough Sat across the southern half of our CWA. Much drier/stable
air moves back into the area behind the trough Sat night/Sun.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with L-M80s along the
coast and U80s inland for highs and lows mainly in the 60s areawide.

The medium range models continue to differ on the next low pressure
system for early next week. The GFS remains slower and drags this
disturbance across the area on Tue. The faster ECMWF continues to
push this system into ECFL on Mon lingering it around thru Tue.
While showers have been added to the grids/zones already for these
days, further model consistency and forecaster confidence could
promote an addition of thunder for either day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR VSBYs possible through 13Z, otherwise VFR with light
and variable winds turning onshore (NE-E) in a sea breeze along
the coast this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Weak high pressure ridge will settle over central FL and
the adjacent Atlc with light and variable winds turning onshore in
a 7-10 kt sea breeze near the coast this afternoon. Seas will be
slow to subside though due to a persistent east swell producing 3
to 4 feet with up to 5 feet well offshore. Tonight...the ridge
axis is forecast to settle farther south as a weak cool front
pushes offshore the Carolina coast but remains north of the waters.
This will produce a W/SW flow around 10 knots across the northern
waters after midnight.

Wed-Sat...The influence of weak high pressure will continue across
the area on Wed, then slide further east/south ahead of an
approaching weak upper disturbance that will move into the area
Fri/early Sat. Generally light/variable winds into Thu with a sea
breeze developing each afternoon along the coast. Gradually
increasing SE/SSE winds Thu night into Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens, becoming W and diminishing to below 10 kt by Sat
afternoon in association with a surface trough.

Seas 2-4 ft near shore and across the southern waters on Wed. Seas
up to 5 ft offshore/north of Ft. Pierce into Wed aftn. Seas continue
areawide 4 ft or less thru Thu evening, until winds begin picking up
Thu overnight and building seas 3-5 ft offshore by daybreak Fri
morning. Wind driven seas continue to build Fri-Fri night 5-7 ft
offshore and perhaps 4-6 ft near shore before subsiding once again
late Fri overnight thru Sat.

Combo of cautionary statements/SCA likely across the waters
between Thu overnight-early Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  85  63  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  81  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  81  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  84  63  87  66 /  10   0   0  10
SFB  85  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
ORL  86  63  86  66 /  10   0   0  10
FPR  82  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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