Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 041105
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
405 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Seasonal Temperatures Today...

Weak ridging over Colorado today will bring temperatures back to
near seasonal averages for the short term.  High clouds will
gradually increase, especially later today through tonight.
Not enough low level moisture for precipitation except possibly
across the higher terrain of central mountains late tonight. That
area could see a few snow showers break out toward Monday morning.
Otherwise, continued dry across the region through tonight.  Winds
will generally not be an issue for most areas over the next 24
hours. However, the central mountains could see a few gusts to
around 40 mph today, increasing to around 50 mph overnight. Also,
the higher terrain of the northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains and
the Pikes Peak Region could see a few gusts up to around 30 mph
today, increasing to around 40 mph by Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Taste of Winter for the plains Tuesday through Thursday...

Monday...A very broad trough of low pressure will be located over
the northern Rockies on Mon, with a low slowly moving east along the
northern border of Montana. Further south, swift westerly zonal flow
will be in place across Colorado providing for isolated to scattered
pcpn chances for the higher terrain, with the best chances across
the northernmost mts. At the same time, temps across the plains are
forecast to be very mild, with readings in the 50s to near 60 F.

Tuesday through Thursday...The GFS and EC models agree on keeping
the broad trough in place across the northern tier, with one low
moving east as another stronger low drops out of the Pacific NW on
Tue, then tracks across the Rockies on Wed. Higher res models
indicate that a cold front will drop south across the Palmer DVD
late Mon night, ushering in very cold air for the forecast area for
Tue and Wed. Max temps on Tue are expected to be in the 30s, and in
the teens and 20s for Wed. As the upper system starts to clear the
area on Wed, clearing skies Wed night will make for the coldest
temps so far this season Thu morning, with min temps of 10 below to
10 above. As for snow chances and amounts, a chance for snow for the
higher elevations remains in place throughout mid-week, but for the
plains the best chances for snow starts Tue aftn and lasts through
the first half of Wed. While the mts may see 4 to 10 inches of new
snow through the event, amounts for the plains may only end up being
an inch or two. The biggest impact is expected to be the bitter
cold. Finally, grouped Thu in this period since cold temps will
continue, though conditions should remain dry. Look for max temps on
Thu in the 20s to near 30 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...Models indicate another swift-moving upper
disturbance crossing the northern Rockies beginning late Thu. This
feature will bring isolated to low-end scattered pcpn chances back
to the higher terrain, with a focus on the central mts and Pikes
Peak region. The brisk westerly flow for much of the remainder of
the forecast area is expected to warm temps back up into the 40s
for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 404 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Temporary ridging will generally result in VFR across the flight
area for the next 24 hours, including the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF
sites.  A possible exception will be across the higher terrain of
the central Colorado mountains late tonight.  This area could see a
few snow showers develop along the Continental Divide north of
Monarch Pass toward Monday morning.  If so, local flight rule
reductions will be possible in precipitation.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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