Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 120909
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The initial cold front that passed through the region yesterday
has worked well south into TX...with breezy north winds remaining
across eastern OK/northwest AR. A surface ridge axis will shift
east across the area today...so expect winds to drop during the
afternoon. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages...with
highs generally in the mid 40s/lower 50s.

The cool weather will be short-lived as winds quickly become
south/southwest on Wednesday ahead of yet another cold front. The
warmer temps...along with breezy afternoon winds and RH values
dipping to around 25-35 percent will result in poor fire weather
conditions areawide.

The aforementioned cold front will push through the area on
Wednesday...with another reinforcing cool shot expected Thursday
night into Friday. This will again drop temperatures back closer
to seasonal norms to end the week.

A quick pattern change is forecast going into the weekend...with
southwesterly upper flow developing ahead of a deepening upper
trof across the Great Basin. We`ll see yet another uptick in poor
fire weather conditions for Saturday...as temps bounce back into
the 60s...stronger south winds develop and afternoon RH readings
remain low. The best moisture return should remain east of the
area as the upper system ejects into the Plains...although longer
range models suggest that some low PoPs may eventually be
necessary for parts of far southeast OK/western AR. The ECMWF is
also much stronger with the upper system...bringing a closed low
across OK by Sunday (along with some light precip beneath the
closed system). Plan on keeping the forecast dry until more
consistent signals are noted in the extended guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  64  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   30  64  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  66  34  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  65  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  60  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   32  59  33  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   31  64  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   31  62  30  46 /   0   0   0   0
F10   33  66  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  67  37  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18



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