Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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705
FXUS64 KTSA 241145
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
645 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong southerly winds this morning will continue well into the
afternoon. Storm system will approach from the west today with
showers this morning and severe thunderstorms developing after
17Z. Another round of strong storms will move through after 00Z
as the upper level trough moves over the area. Storms look to
impact all terminals with the first round. The second round should
mainly impact northern terminals. The system will move out from
west to east by late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Probably one of the more complicated forecasts I`ve had to do in
quite awhile, with multiple storms to deal with in a 7 day period.
The main points of emphasis are: 1) Storm/severe potential with
the approaching upper low later today and tonight, 2) Strong wind
potential today, 3) Fire weather potential this afternoon behind
the dryline, 4) Tstorm/severe potential with the next progressive
system late Sunday/Sunday night, and finally 5) Timing of
precip/storm potential with yet another upper low around the
middle of next week.

Upper level low pressure will move east across northern OK today
and tonight, and then northeast across MO on Saturday. An initial
band of convection has gradually faded during the overnight, but
will gradually regenerate as we head into the daytime hours and it
encounters better moisture. Still, instability will be limited
thru the morning. Models indicate that there will be airmass
recovery behind the initial band and ahead of the dryline/cold
front. The last few runs of the operational HRRR show a
strengthening band of storms this afternoon over far eastern OK
with the activity moving into western AR by evening. The greatest
instability and severe threat will be located from SE OK up into
west central AR. All modes of severe weather are possible with
these storms. Later on tonight the cold core upper low will track
overhead, and with some low level moisture hanging back, will lead
to some instability. The last few runs of the experimental HRRR
suggest storms will develop between 06Z and 12Z north of highway
412 and these could produce some marginally severe hail, with
MUCAPE of about 500 J/KG to work with. This activity will lift off
to the northeast on Saturday with the upper low.

Strong 925 mb winds (~40 kts) are forecast thru the morning, and
as mixing begins after daybreak, some of these stronger winds
could be brought down to the surface, as indicated by the RAP. A
wind advisory has been issued across NE OK over into far NW AR
thru the morning hours. 925 mb winds will be decreasing during the
afternoon, reducing max potential gusts.

The latest RAP forecasts the dryline to punch into NE OK this
afternoon, to the west of highway 75. Winds will be strong enough
this afternoon and will combine with plummeting RH values to
warrant an upgrade of the current fire weather watch to a red flag
warning.

The next progressive wave will affect our area mainly Sunday
night. The latest ECMWF shows a surface low over south central OK
and a warm front extending east pretty close to the I-40 corridor
at 06Z Monday, with the low then tracking east-northeast into the
AR/MO Ozarks by midday Monday. Any storms that develop in the warm
sector could be dangerous, while elevated hail storms look more
likely to the north of the warm front across NE OK and NW AR. The
track of the surface low will be key to the severe weather threat,
which could be significant.

Yet another upper level low pressure is expected to organize over
the Southwest and then move slowly east into the Plains around the
middle of next week. Timing issues aside, the potential for more
stormy weather is likely, and will include severe storms as well.

The silver lining in all of this is that each storm will bring
chances for rain, which should help the ongoing fire situation
across the region.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  51  67  47 /  40  50  20   0
FSM   73  55  68  48 /  90  50  20   0
MLC   78  52  69  47 /  70  20  10   0
BVO   79  50  66  41 /  30  50  20   0
FYV   68  53  59  43 /  90  60  50  10
BYV   70  54  61  47 /  90  80  50  10
MKO   73  53  67  46 /  60  40  20   0
MIO   71  50  60  44 /  70  60  50  10
F10   80  51  68  47 /  50  30  10   0
HHW   74  52  71  49 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>071-073.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ054-059-064-065.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11



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