Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 040032
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...

The main adjustment to the forecast was to PoPs for tonight. See
discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Looking aloft, a trough axis extends from Central Canada clear
down to the Baja. The upper trough is expected to split in two, as
energy slides by to our north tonight, and the upper low down over
the Baja at the base of the larger scale trough gets cut off from
the flow. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes, with low pressure troughing over the
Northern High Plains. Light rain that spread over the region today
into this evening was in association with the warm conveyor ahead
of the broad upper trough. This rain is shifting east this
evening. Lift in association with the northern shortwave trough
should spread across Kansas and far northern Oklahoma later on
tonight before ending Sunday morning. With this reasoning in mind,
I have made adjustments to PoPs for tonight, gradually decreasing
them with time along and south of I-40. After a brief lull this
evening, PoPs ramp back up north of I-44 later on tonight as lift
from the upper wave spreads across. With thermal profiles warm and
instability lacking, precip should stay just plain rain.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Area of light rain continues to drift across the region this evening
with IFR ceilings srn and ern sites and MVFR ceilings nern OK sites.
Expect another area of rain to expand across the region overnight
with ceilings and visibilities gradually decreasing areawide.
IFR/LIFR will prevail most sites through 15-18z tomorrow. Skies clear
ern OK sites late Sunday afternoon from the west. Clearing may reach
nwrn AR sites by the very end of this forecast period but chances of
maintaining MVFR ceilings through 05/00z seem more likely at this
time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Light rain will continue off an on through the night
and into Sunday morning as a southwesterly flow aloft
persists across the area. The rain will be shunted to
the south and east on Sunday as a northern stream shortwave
moves across the central plains.

Another round of rain is expected Sunday night into Monday night
as the upper level low current spinning over northern Mexico
moves across Texas.

A cold front will move through the region Monday night into Tuesday
with a surge of arctic air moving into the region on Wednesday. The
next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday into Wednesday night
as an upper level trof moves across the plains. The vertical temperature
profile will support wintry precipitation, mainly in the form of light
snow across portions of northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Temperatures Wednesday night and again on Thursday night will bottom out
in the teens and twenties, the coldest air of this early winter season
so far.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  54  36  54 /  70  20  10  30
FSM   44  52  38  49 /  60  20  20  60
MLC   42  52  39  49 /  30  20  20  60
BVO   41  53  28  52 /  80  20  10  20
FYV   39  48  29  50 /  70  20  10  50
BYV   36  47  32  47 /  70  20  10  50
MKO   42  52  35  50 /  50  20  10  50
MIO   41  51  32  52 /  80  20  10  40
F10   42  53  36  50 /  40  20  10  50
HHW   45  53  42  48 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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