Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 301124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gradually improving conditions are expected. Cigs will gradually
climb from IFR/MVFR this morning to VFR by this afternoon. Some
scattered showers could affect the NE OK sites, but they are not
expected to affect flight categories. Strong SW winds are
expected by midday, with gusts to 35 kts possible in some
locations. Winds are not expected to subside much until about 02Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/
Deep upper level low centered over extreme northwest OK will
continue to lift northeast today. As this happens, the plume of
deepest moisture will continue to translate east with threat of
excessive rainfall rates shifting east as well. Scattered
convection continues over northwest AR within this deeper moisture
for a few more hours, with Flood Watch continuing through 12z.
Another band of ascent resulting in light showers moving across
central OK, but nothing at all like what we have seen over the
past 24-36 hours.
Otherwise today will be atypical late April weather with blustery
and cool conditions. Deep sfc low moving across Kansas will
result in tight pressure gradient through most of eastern OK and
western AR this afternoon and evening, with increasing downward
momentum transport of strong mid level flow resulting in gusts
near or above advisory levels in many areas...oddly enough the
lightest speeds are likely to be north of I-44 for a change. A
wind advisory will be issued from 17-02z, with only a modest
decrease in speeds tonight.
Much nicer day in store Monday as temperatures warm closer to
normal levels as mostly sunny skies return. Another frontal
boundary will sag south into the area Tuesday, likely stalling
across southern areas Tuesday night. An approaching upper system
will result in band of showers and elevated thunderstorms
developing mainly north of I-40 Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts
with this do not look excessive at this time, however given the
recent rainfall over this region, it may not take much to cause
additional hydro issues. Fortunately this will be a short duration
rain event as the system will move east of the area late Wednesday.
Pattern late in the week into the weekend becomes very amplified
with blocking ridge over the central U.S. While not typical for
early May, this will at least offer a chance to dry out for
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 52 43 71 49 / 30 10 0 0
FSM 60 45 72 50 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 56 44 74 51 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 50 42 70 45 / 30 20 0 0
FYV 56 42 66 48 / 40 10 0 0
BYV 61 43 64 49 / 40 20 10 0
MKO 55 43 70 49 / 20 10 0 0
MIO 53 42 66 46 / 40 20 0 0
F10 55 43 72 50 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 61 45 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for