Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220236
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
936 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The event is underway across northeast OK this evening. The cold
front extended from near KC down into northeast OK, just to the
north and west of Tulsa, and then down into south central OK at 9
PM. The line of storms which developed late into the afternoon and
evening from southwest into north central OK will now begin to
move more quickly to the southeast for the remainder of the night
in tandem with the cold front. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat, but a few reports of large hail and an isolated tornado or
two is possible. The tornado threat will be heavily dependant on
whether storms can keep up with the surging front. Any echoes that
can develop right on and move in tandem with the front will pose
the better tornadic risk. The line of storms should exit western
Arkansas in the 3 to 5 am time frame. The forecast has been
updated to adjust thunder probs both behind the convective line
and later on tonight into Sunday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front extended from Topeka to Weatherford this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect all terminals within
the next few hours. Best potential for severe gusts will be with
initial line, affecting KBVO/KTUL/KRVS before midnight. A
prolonged period of rain may reduce visibility and ceilings for
several hours. Wind threat will diminish as cold front eventually
undercuts the convective line.

$$

SHORT TERM...08
AVIATION...06


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  74  46  76 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   58  72  45  78 / 100  40   0   0
MLC   54  72  45  79 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   50  74  39  76 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   54  64  40  72 / 100  30   0   0
BYV   55  65  43  73 / 100  40   0   0
MKO   53  71  45  77 / 100  10   0   0
MIO   52  69  43  74 / 100  10   0   0
F10   53  72  46  78 / 100   0   0   0
HHW   58  74  46  80 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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