Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 221755
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...PRECIPITATION...
MUCH OF THE NCRFC AREA RECEIVED SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS....THE BULK OF IT FALLING IN MINNESOTA
...WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONED FROM ALL RAIN OR A MIXTURE
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVER TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MOSTLY ALL
SNOW NORTH OF THERE FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NEARBY AREAS OF MICHIGAN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW REPORT
WAS 6.5 INCHES AT BUTTERNUT WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST RAIN/WATER
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH...FALLING
IN A BAND FROM WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN...IS EXPECTED TO RUN FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI OVER INTO ILLINOIS AND THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH
ONE INCH...WHILE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE
IN THE REGION.

...TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE
NCRFC AREA AT THE MOMENT. BUT AFTER CHRISTMAS...ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MAKING A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTHWARD...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE NCRFC FORECAST AREA
AND NONE IS FORECAST.  HIGH WATER LEVELS OBSERVED FROM THE RAIN
EVENT LAST WEEK ARE NOW RECEEDING.

A COMPLEX HYDROLOGIC SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THIS WEEK.  A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND SNOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.  JUST WHERE THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW SETS UP
IS THE CURRENT FORECAST PROBLEM.  IF WARM AIR AND RAIN SURGE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE PLACES WITH ICE COVERED RIVERS...MORE ICE
JAMS MAY RESULT.  FURTHER SOUTH...FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.  AFTER THE STORM MOVES THROUGH... MUCH COLDER
TEMPERTURES WILL SET IN WITH FRAZIL ICE FORMATION JAMS POSSIBLE.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

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EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: ALH ... SAS ... SDB ... DAM

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...DAM/SDB...





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