Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


A 1011 mb low is centered near 28N83W with a cold front extending
SW from the low to the NW tip of the Yucatan peninsula then to
the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Strong to gale force
northwesterly winds are occurring S of 20N W of 94W and expected
to persist through early this evening. Thereafter winds will
diminish slightly and remain generally fresh to strong across the
basin west of the cold front through tonight as the low moves NE
into the SW North Atlc region. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

A 1008 mb low is centered near 31N64W with the associated cold
front extending S-SW to near 27N67W. The existing pressure
gradient remains strong within the NE and E quadrants of the low
generating near gale to gale force S-SW winds N of 30N between 60W
and 62W. These conditions will persist through tonight. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N23W to
06N40W to 07N53W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the ITCZ from
13N54W to 06N58W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from
01N-10N E of 39W.



An elongated middle to upper level trough extends from the Great
Lakes SW across Alabama to a base beyond the Bay of Campeche.
This troughing supports the Special Features low analyzed across
the NE Gulf and resulting strong to gale force winds west of the
front in the SW basin. The low will be quick to move NE into the
SW North Atlc region tonight as the front continues across the
Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters, clearing east of the basin
by Saturday. Until then, northerly winds are expected as high
pressure will influence much of the basin through the weekend.


A surface trough extends from central Cuba near 22N80W to 16N82W
to Costa Rica coastal waters near 09N83W with isolated showers
and tstms within 120 nm either side of the trough axis N of 14N.
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough and diffluence aloft
enhance this convection to scattered moderate with embedded tstms
S of 14N between 74W and 83W. Another surface trough is across the
the NE Caribbean extending from 19N64W SE to the Windward Islands
near 14N61W. This trough is underneath an upper ridge that covers
the central and eastern basin. Shallow moisture in that region of
the Caribbean may allow for the development of isolated showers in
the vicinity of the boundary. Otherwise, mainly gentle to
moderate trades are occurring E of 80W. Little change is expected
through Sunday night.


Clear skies and fair weather reign across the Island underneath a
middle to upper level ridge and very dry conditions aloft. These
conditions will deteriorate Friday night as the surface trough
currently over the NE Caribbean moves west across the Island
supporting the development of isolated to scattered showers during
the weekend.


A warm front extends from 31N78W SW to a 1011 mb low in the NE
Gulf of Mexico and supports scattered heavy showers and tstms over
the far NW waters of the basin N of 27N W of 77W. A surface trough
traversing central Cuba support similar convection in the Great
Bahama Bank between 77W and 80W. A cold front enters the SW North
Atlc region near 31N64W and extends to 27N67W. While the front
remains relatively benign... the SW North Atlc 1008 mb Special
Feature low centered near 31N64W is supported aloft by a mid-level
shortwave and continues to generate scattered showers N of 25N
between 56W-62W. Farther east, a weakening cold front slices
across northern portions of the discussion area from 30N30W W-SW
to 27N40W to 27N46W where it becomes stationary along to 57W.
Lastly, a weak 1013 mb low is centered near 19N45W with a surface
trough analyzed SW from the low to 17N49W.

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