Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, curving to the
Equator along 23W, 01N35W and 01N38W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N13W 05N23W0
05N52W southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough is moving into the eastern
half of the Midwest. The trough is supporting a cold front that
is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of
Mexico, to the Mexico coastal plains near 22N98W. Scattered to
broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 23N
northward from 90W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through the Windward
Passage, into the SW corner of the area. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in
the area.

A surface ridge passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through 16N64W, to 15N76W, and central Guatemala.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from
70W eastward, from 14N northward between 70W and 76W, and from 18N
to 19N between 80W and 86W, in areas of broken low level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 25/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: a TRACE in Freeport in the
Bahamas.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow from 250 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
continue for the next 6 to 12 hours or so, as the trough stays to
the west of Hispaniola. Expect NW wind flow after the trough moves
to the east of Hispaniola, and continues moving eastward more and
more. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow
will continue for the next 18 hours or so. The trough will move on
top of Hispaniola, and then it will dissipated. A ridge will build
across Hispaniola at the beginning of day two, from the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Expect NE wind flow during day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist
of SW wind flow at the start, followed by variable winds for 6
hours, and then anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge, for the rest
of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to the SE Bahamas,
through the Windward Passage, into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. A cold front passes across Bermuda to 24N65W. A surface
trough is along 31N68W to 27N70W and 25N72W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N to
30N between 62W and 63W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
20N northward between 60W and the SE coast of the U.S.A.

An upper level trough is passing through 32N30W 25N35W to 18N45W.
A stationary front continues, through 32N37W to 29N41W 26N47W and
22N56W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N30W to 23N50W and 20N64W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 18N northward from 30W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N26W, to 26N40W, 21N48W, to 16N64W in the eastern part
of the Caribbean Sea. A second surface ridge extends from a 1030
mb high pressure center that is near 37N43W, through 32N49W, to
25N58W, also toward 16N64W in the eastern part of the

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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