Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 272349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.



Gale-force winds are in the northern semicircle of a 1008 mb
surface low pressure centered near 24N68W. Seas in this region
range from 12 to 18 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue
the next two days shifting to the west semicircle as the low
moves northeast Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from there to 03N17W to 00N33W
to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between



In general, low pressure dominates over the western half of the
basin while ridging extends from the west Atlantic across Florida
into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to
moderate return flow across the basin. CIRA LPW imagery at the
lower levels and water vapor imagery show dry conditions across
the entire basin, which is favoring fair weather. No major changes
are expected within the next two days.


A relaxed pressure gradient in the Caribbean supports gentle to
moderate trades basin-wide. CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery show
dry conditions in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere across
the area, which is favoring fair weather. No significant changes
are expected within the next two days.


Dry air prevails across the island supporting fair weather.
However, the proximity of a surface trough attached to the Special
Features` surface low could develop a few showers across the
northern portion of the island during the next 24 hours. The low
will move northeast away from the area during the next 24-48
hours. Dry conditions and fair weather will prevail once again
across the island.


The main concern in the Atlantic is an area low pressure east of
the Bahamas with gale-force conditions. This low is being
supported by a mid-level cyclone and associated trough extending
south across the central Caribbean. The low is centered near
24N68W from which a warm front extends along 27N64W to 28N58W.
Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by southeast flow
along with a diffluent flow aloft support scattered light to
moderate convection north of 27N between 57W and 67W. For further
details about the Gale Warning, please see the Special Features
section above. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 28N20W.

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