Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 010602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 01/0600 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 25.7W AT 01/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 52 NM NW OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 24W-
26W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N60W ACROSS
GUADELOUPE TO 11N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-60W AND
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM 11N-20N
MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN
RESUMES S-SW OF HURRICANE FRED NEAR 12N27W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 7N41W TO 7N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 45W-52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
COVERING THE NW GULF AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...
TEXAS...AND MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND
EXTENDS OVER S FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS IS CREATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE E GULF AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO NEAR 25N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NW ACROSS THE E GULF THROUGH WED REACHING TO ALONG
88W BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
78W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
PANAMA AND COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF HISPANIOLA W OF 70W. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NIGHT AND WED ENTERING
THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SW HAITI W OF 70W INCLUDING
THE GULF OF GONAVE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TUE NIGHT
PRECEDING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS THE ISLAND. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N77W WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E-NE TO 32N52W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND
JACKSONVILLE. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N44W
ALONG 25N52W 22N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1021
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N71W AND A 1020 HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N53W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN
WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS
SLOWLY INTO N WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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