Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191201

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


At 19/1200 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.2N
62.8W or about 74 nm W of Guadeloupe, moving WNW at 8 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong
convection and tstms are within 120 nm of the center in all
quadrants and from 09N to 16N between 57W and 63W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 57W and
66W. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 19/1200 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 204 nm ENE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.3N 71.6W, moving N at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 36N to 39N between 68W and 73W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and
76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N16W to 07N17W. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, and abundant low to middle
level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. Upper level
diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 06N to
13N between 14W and 22W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N79W to 08N83W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in
a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern
wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow
aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 18N between
78W and 84W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 07N30W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W and
continues along 08N45W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.



Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of
Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are
associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving
over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with
dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche associated with the
tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the
basin through Wednesday.


Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the Leeward Islands and NE
Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin
is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean
waters. See the tropical waves section for more information.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria
and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for
the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.


Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.


Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 15N43W and are forecast to move NW
during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection and
scattered tstms are within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 23N
between 37W and 44W. A surface trough is over the central Atlc
extending from 30N40W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is E of this trough N of 23N between 33W and 40W. The remainder
of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface
ridge centered north of the area.

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