Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 310147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW AR
AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST WITH AROUND 0.5 INCH PWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE N...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A S/WV
MOVING THROUGH E AR. AS THIS AND ANOTHER STRONG S/WV OVER NRN MN
MOVES SE AND GRADUALLY PHASES WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE W TO MOVE
THROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
GRADUALLY TO BUILD TO THE SE. DUE TO A STRONG INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN THE DELTA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT. MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN ALTOCUMULUS OVER
GLH-GWO-GTR BEFORE 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY 31/17Z AND MAY BECOME BROKEN
AROUND GTR/MEI...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 31/17Z WITH SUSTAINED 15 AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS COMMON
IN THE AFTERNOON. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED 0.36 INCH PW VALUES OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FIRST FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LIMIT JUST HOW COLD WE GET. WHILE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME PLACES...THIS SUSTAINED WIND WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD
FROST WILL BE. IT LIKELY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THANKS TO DECENT CAA. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON
OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS
OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     44  71  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  74  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       48  71  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    49  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/28/15






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