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000
FXUS64 KJAN 222109
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DESTABILIZATION WAS INSUFFICIENT FOR GETTING SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING CONVECIVE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND DRYING TAKES PLACE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE
PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
WE HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GFS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT VERY WEAK FORCING AND QUESTIONABLE MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT
TO GENERATE. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NOW
GIVEN EXPLICIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL DRY AND COOL SOME FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORECAST TO FLATTEN RIDGING FOR
THE AREA SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
BUT THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THE EURO BRINGS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING TO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ITS ALSO MORE INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH...DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGHING INTO NRN AR AND TN WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THESE
FEATURES FARTHER N. THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW
IN THE LONGER RANGE BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ADDED IF IT BEGINS TO
TREND TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE LOOKING EURO.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY. WILL FOLLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL MEX MOS HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CUTTING MOS HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR SOUTH TO
THE MID 80S CONSIDERING THE COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER LOWS ARE FORECAST BY
MEX MOS FOR SATURDAY MORNING...INCLUDING READINGS IN THE MID 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF I-20 AND E OF I-55. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND EURO BUT KEPT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 FOR MANY OF THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE EXTREMELY
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF TURBULENCE AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALMOST ENTIRELY VFR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT LIGHT WINDS
AROUND A BOUNDARY COMING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL WORK WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND MOIST GROUND TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR COME DAWN TOMORROW AT MOST
SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG. EXPECT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TOMORROW TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 830 AND 1030 AM.
AFTERWARD TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  90  64  83 /   5  14  16  10
MERIDIAN      62  91  61  84 /   7  12  13   4
VICKSBURG     62  90  64  84 /   5  15  16  12
HATTIESBURG   65  89  66  88 /  17  14  15   2
NATCHEZ       66  89  65  83 /   9  17  18   7
GREENVILLE    62  89  63  77 /   4  15  16  12
GREENWOOD     61  88  61  78 /   4  13  14   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/03/BB