Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 020851
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY VS.
YESTERDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY ON THE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE SIDE IN
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH
MORNING HOURS BUT BE TEMPERED BY SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN.

A SWIFT MOVING S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUSTAINING A
MCS IN KS/OK/MO THIS MORNING AND IS ACTING TO FLATTEN THE ALREADY
WEAK H7-H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE MCS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR THROUGH THE DAWN HOURS AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT GUSTS OUT. HOWEVER, HRRR/ARW SUGGEST A
CONVERGENT BAND DEVELOPING FROM THIS OUTFLOW IN SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN THAT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST MS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH SUCH A WARM
START THIS MORNING, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED 11AM-12PM
AND ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-20 AND
HWY 82 CORRIDORS. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN WEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE BAND AND THIS MAY PROMOTE
BETTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS SUPPORTED BY SPC SSEO OUTPUT. STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WINDS IN THE 40-60 MPH
RANGE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WILL NOT FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE JUST YET AS TO MONITOR HI-RES TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR
MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS BUT SOME
NEW ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN NORTH MS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE PLACED 20% POPS FOR FAR NORTH TIER
COUNTIES. PWATS NEAR 2" WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
ALSO SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LOCKED IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING.

WILL PRETTY MUCH HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS MAXIMUMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AS BELIEVE THIS LEVEL OF WARMING WILL STILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN MID AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMES.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROFFINESS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO EASE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL QUICKLY STALL OVER THE NORTH AND NOT OFFER
ANYMORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAXIMUMS TO REACH
AROUND 90...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AS OF 3AM BUT BEGINNINGS OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON SATELLITE NEAR KHBG WITH LIKELY MVFR TO IFR
CONDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z. CENTRAL SITES MAY DROP TO MVFR DUE TO
LOW STRATUS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MAY HELP PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED 17Z-00Z TODAY WITH BRIEF MVFR
CATS AT A SITE IF DIRECTLY IMPACTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS BUT COULD BE HIGHER /20-40 KT/ INVOF
STRONGER TSRA. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  73  94  72 /  50  27  32  19
MERIDIAN      93  72  94  71 /  49  24  41  17
VICKSBURG     92  72  94  72 /  51  24  24  19
HATTIESBURG   94  75  95  73 /  52  30  50  21
NATCHEZ       90  74  92  72 /  54  30  40  23
GREENVILLE    93  73  94  73 /  50  20  19  14
GREENWOOD     92  73  94  72 /  46  20  27  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/26





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