Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 042134
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PATTERN DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
STUCK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR POPS. THE GFS
KEPT THE BEST POPS IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...BUT BASED ON TODAY AND THE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THINKING CENTRAL
AND EAST MISSISSIPPI MAY GET A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
DAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE HWO WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS WERE CONSISTENT...KEEPING SUMMER GOING FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...BUT AFTERNOON MIXING AND A
LIGHT BREEZE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW PLACES WERE NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA SEEMS TO BE TRAPPED AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS SHIFT BACK AND FORTH...MOVE
EAST AND RETROGRADE A TIME OR TWO...OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. BY MID WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS
PICKED UP THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIR.


MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SUPPORTS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT A
RANDOM SITE ACROSS THE REGION BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPORARY
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND WIND GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO 30 KTS. TONIGHT
EXPECT PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS TOWARD MORNING WITH POTENTIAL OF
ANY IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LIMITED TO PIB/HBG. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  95  72  94 /  16  24  19  31
MERIDIAN      70  94  69  91 /  16  22  19  25
VICKSBURG     71  96  69  94 /  17  23  19  27
HATTIESBURG   73  95  72  93 /  21  29  19  50
NATCHEZ       73  92  72  92 /  23  31  19  50
GREENVILLE    71  98  71  96 /  16  17  11   9
GREENWOOD     69  95  69  93 /  16  15  10  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/


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