Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 241504

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2014

.Update...Latest satellite imagery showed mid-upper ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered east of
the region giving the cwa weak return flow. Hi-Res models shows that
a few convective airmass showers may approach our northwest and west
border for this afternoon. So increased dry pops to just below 15
percent in the northwest and west. Used the 12z conshort model to
make slight adjustments to hourly and max temps for this afternoon.
Hourly temps are running about 2 to 3 degrees warmer this morning
compared to Monday morning. So highs in the upper 80s to a few
locations touching 90 looks to be on track with the relatively dry
soils across the region,good insulation,and light south winds./17/


.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday night...High pressure at
the surface and ridging aloft will maintain quiet conditions across
the region through at least mid-week.  Low-level moisture will
subtly increase across the region during this time...resulting in
continued warm and increasingly humid conditions each day.  As high
clouds continue to stream west to east across the region...highs
both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon will peak in the upper
80s. Then tonight and Wednesday night...lows will range from the
lower 60s to around 70.

Rain chances will also remain at a minimum during this time. Models
do hint at a couple of weak impulses trying to bring some convection
into the region from the northwest. However...due to strengthening
of both the ridge and surface high...the majority of models are in
agreement with dissipating this convection before it reaches the far
western portions of the forecast area. Therefore...I`ll maintain an
overall dry forecast through the short term portion of the forecast
period. /19/

Thursday through Monday...At the beginning of the period, mid level
ridge, which will have been somewhat persistent by this time, is
showing signs of buckling as flow has increased overtop and system
moves into the Rockies. Nevertheless, dry/warm air remains entrenched
over eastern areas in the lower levels as flow remains weak
southerly. These conditions look to remain in place at least through
Friday with isolated to scattered convection remaining confined to
the northwest half of the forecast area.

By Saturday, ridge axis will have pushed far enough east for a
broader southwest flow regime to setup over the area. This combined
with better low level moisture will mean a better coverage of
diurnal convection being possible. Varying solutions begin creeping
into the Sunday and Monday timeframe. ECMWF/Canadian want to
maintain weak southwest flow over the area as the system moves out
of the Rockies into the northern Plains while the GFS wants to
reestablish the mid level ridge. Diurnal convection still looks to
be the case regardless of which one verifies given surface dewpoints
in the 60s and lower 70s. /26/


.AVIATION...High clouds will continue to traverse from west to east
across the region through much of the forecast period. Still...VFR
flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites over the area
through Wednesday morning.  Winds today will be southerly between 5-
8 knots. These winds will subside to light to calm this evening and
overnight. /19/


Jackson       89  65  88  68 /   3   3   6   6
Meridian      88  60  88  63 /   3   3   3   2
Vicksburg     89  67  89  69 /   7   5  11   7
Hattiesburg   88  62  89  66 /   3   3   2   3
Natchez       88  69  87  70 /   7   5  13  10
Greenville    89  69  89  70 /  11   8  11   8
Greenwood     89  66  88  69 /   5   6   8   7


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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