Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 021537 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR GTR/MEI
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA./15/


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO
BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGION FROM AN UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWED AN MCS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION AND LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE NORTH AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED RISK ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...UP TO QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS
CROSSES THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE AHEAD
OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PWATS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO AROUND 2 INCHES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION. MESO SCALE PROCESSES FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
CATALYST OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SEVERE GRAPHICAST FOR THAT PERIOD AT
THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED HIGHS WILL BE 91-93 FOR TODAY THEN
COOLING TO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER POPS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. /17/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING LOOKS TO PENETRATE EVEN DEEPER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY RELENTING TO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS TROUGHING WILL HAVE UNFORTUNATE
WET CONSEQUENCES ON THE WEATHER AROUND HERE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THIS INCREASED ENERGY ALOFT AND A BOUNDARY
COMING INTO NORTHERN ZONES AND STALLING SHOULD YIELD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20) WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY NOT JUST LIMITED
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS (AS IS TYPICAL AROUND HERE
IN SUMMER). ONCE AGAIN...WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SETUP LOOKS
TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO EXPECT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALTHOUGH
THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD
VERY WELL YIELD A FEW SMALLER COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY. OF COURSE SOME
STRONG AND GUSTY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SMALLER
COMPLEXES BUT...AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PRETTY LOW GIVEN ANTICIPATED
PARAMETER SPACE. FOR NOW THE HWO WILL BE KEPT CLEAR OF THREATS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME LIMITED RISK
MIGHT NOT ULTIMATELY BE ADVERTISED FOR SMALLER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS THE WEEKEND ENTERS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE
OF MESOSCALE EVOLUTION INCREASES.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES...BUT EXPECT A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NOSES IN
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEPARTS...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE LESS
ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MORE SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP. CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS NO RADICAL STRETCH OF HEAT NEXT WEEK
CONSIDERING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY WILL ONLY HAVE A TENUOUS
HOLD ON THE SOUTHEAST SINCE TELECONNECTIONS MAY VERY WELL FAVOR AN
EXPANSE OF ANOTHER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AGAIN BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...PEAK HEAT INDICES NEXT WEEK COULD DEFINITELY
EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT TIMES AND IN SPOTS. OF COURSE THIS IS NOTHING
OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN JULY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  74  91  73 /  21   9  15  36
MERIDIAN      92  71  91  71 /  31  14  18  33
VICKSBURG     92  73  91  73 /  12   8  16  37
HATTIESBURG   93  74  93  73 /  32   8   9  25
NATCHEZ       91  74  90  74 /   8   8  10  26
GREENVILLE    92  74  88  73 /  23  56  51  56
GREENWOOD     91  72  87  70 /  26  55  48  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.