Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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427
FXUS64 KJAN 240957
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
457 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Models seem to be in good
agreement in the short term. Looking for moisture to continue to move
around the upper ridge. Much of the convection will be across the
south and southwestern zones this afternoon and early evening. Left
the best rain chances along the highway 84 corridor. The oppressive
heat will cotinue across the the Delta and both sides of the river
through today. Still looking for heat indices to approach 110. The
upper ridge was expected to shift to the east slightly over Thursday,
so more convection is possible across the northwest zones. Looks
temperatures will be a little cooler also. Went with guidance on
temps and pops through the period. Overall, no real changes to the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday
There appears to be some potential that a tropical cyclone may
develop and affect our weather by the end of the long term period
but overall, little has changed from the previous forecast as model
consensus still indicates that warmer than normal temperatures and
lower rain chances will occur through the long term period for our
CWA. Our normal afternoon highs run near 90F and our normal morning
lows run near 70F. Friday the large 594dam high will become centered
over the southern Appalachains and the Carolinas. This high will sit
atop of a >1018mb high that will ridge southwest across the Gulf
coast states. Together these ridges will work to limit convection
and allow for warmer afternoon highs at least through the weekend.
The surface ridge across our CWA Friday will result in a low level
northeast to east flow that models suggest wl bring in a drier air
mass lowering PWATs to below and inch and a half with upper 60
degree dew points mixing even lower during peak heating. This lower
humidity will offset the higher mid 90F afternoon temperatures to
result in peak heat index values in the lower 100s Friday and
Saturday. The best chance for an afternoon or early evening storm
will be around the periphery of the mid level high, over our western
zones each day. Models differ with the strength and position of the
mid level high Monday and Tuesday while trying to develop a tropical
feature in vicinity of the Florida Peninsula. Our forecast for
Monday through Wednesday will generally remain warmer than normal
with lower than normal rain chances but may significantly change if
later model runs point to a tropical system impacting our CWA. /22/



&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog may develop for a few hours this morning...so
continued mvfr conditions at most sites from 10-15z. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely again this
afternoon...mainly south and east. Added a tempo group to
JAN/MEI/HBG for thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Winds across the
area will be light...south/southeast for much of the day with mvfr
conditions possible for ceilings and visibilities. Activity should
diminish in the evening with fog possible in the usual locations
again tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  76  92  75 /  39  21  35  25
Meridian      97  75  93  74 /  35  13  30  22
Vicksburg     95  76  93  74 /  34  17  39  42
Hattiesburg   93  75  92  74 /  42  24  34  25
Natchez       92  75  90  74 /  48  24  47  43
Greenville    94  76  94  75 /  21   8  31  37
Greenwood     95  76  94  75 /  21   8  32  26

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>042-047-053-059.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

7/22



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