Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 230115 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE... A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MCV IS CROSSING JUST NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. MEANWHILE CLOSE TO THE COAST A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HEAD BACK NORTH TOMORROW IS KICKING UP A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN...OUR REGION REMAINS PLEASANT AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RETURNING FRONTAL ZONE...BUT
MINOR RAIN CHANCES DOWN THERE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER ON
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR CWA UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR CWA
TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS EAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S. BY SUNRISE THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. OUR WINDS ALOFT
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW
MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BUT HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT BACK NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S. SUNDAY MORNING THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR CWA
WILL BE SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN. WARM BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL HELP
INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MODELS ARE
DRIER OR A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING RAIN BACK OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MOST SITES WILL SEE RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST WHILE
THE RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT COVERAGE OF RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO EXPLOIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
THE DELTA AGAIN MONDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST CONVECTION...BUT
AS MAIN TROF IN THE WEST LIFTS OUT TUESDAY AND FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR THE
WEEK AS NOT EXPECTING ANY WARMER THAN MID 80S. INCREASED MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH VARIABILITY IN TEMPS AS
MINS ONLY FALL TO NEAR 70. /26/22/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NE LA
AND SW MS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IN THOSE SAME
AREAS A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  86  68  87 /   3   6   7  44
MERIDIAN      54  86  65  86 /   2   5   5  43
VICKSBURG     59  86  69  87 /   3  11  17  47
HATTIESBURG   59  89  69  87 /   6   8  13  50
NATCHEZ       61  85  70  86 /   5  28  21  46
GREENVILLE    58  84  68  85 /   6   8  11  52
GREENWOOD     55  85  67  85 /   3   5   7  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/26



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