Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250014 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST HIRES HRRR GUIDANCE SLOWS THINGS DOWN A LITTLE FOR
THIS EVENING. THIS IS REFLECTED BY AREA RADARS. IT STILL SHOWS A
GOOD LEWPING BOWING SEGEMENT PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH HALF FOR
LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE GOOD
LOWER AND UPPER JET ENERGY AND DEEP STRONG SHEAR. SO HAVE REMOVED
ALL SHOWERS AND KEPT IT ALL CONVECTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME FOR THIS EVENING. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
IN THE NORTH HAVE MODIFIED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AS WE WATCH THE STORM
CROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...445 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE DIMINISHED AS THEY
HAVE MOVED EAST BUT HAVE BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT THESE ARE MUCH MORE SCATTERED.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS THANKS TO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
FROM THE COAST. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
50S BUT EXPECT THAT THESE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AS SOME MODELS EVEN SHOW UP TO 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELTA AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES....PARTICULARLY AFTER 8-10PM. AT THIS POINT VERTICAL
TOTALS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING(WITH SHEAR
VALUES APPROACHING 60-70KTS) AND SHOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. IT APPEARS THAT THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MIGHT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS A SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DELTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. IT BRINGS THE LINE THROUGH MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MY CWA FROM ABOUT 03-10Z WITH SEVERAL LEWP
STRUCTURES AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WE
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED OUR HWO PRODUCTS ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA
WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
GREATER THAN 75MPH WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. /28/

ON SATURDAY THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAVE A
BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE AREA AND THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM...LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STILL CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO BUT HAIL AND WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. EXPECT ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN./15/

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO GET QUITE
AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY AS THE PREVIOUS TROUGH ENERGY BRINGING INCLEMENT
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM BECOMES PART OF A CONSOLIDATED AND LARGE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS WILL BE
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE NORTH SUNDAY LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SHOULD SPELL A VERY WARM
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY DISTURBANCES SHOULD
START EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
LOW...UNDERCUTTING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN THE PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
HINTING IN THIS PATTERN THAT BAROCLINICITY AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING SOUTHEAST AND BLENDED GUIDANCE IS
CATCHING ON TO THIS. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT POPS ARE MOST STRONGLY
FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN (AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN) ZONES AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE POPS COULD TREND EVEN MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COAST.
IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW SHOULD COME
OVER THE REGION AND POSITIVELY FORCE SOLID RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORM
OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSRA AND LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HEZ-JAN-GTR CORRIDOR IN
THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR WILL BECOME TO MOVE BACK IN
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR
TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
/EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  85  67  87 /  71  40   8   7
MERIDIAN      68  84  66  86 /  66  50  11   7
VICKSBURG     70  87  66  87 /  74  26   8   9
HATTIESBURG   71  85  68  89 /  42  45  10   8
NATCHEZ       71  85  68  86 /  53  31   7   7
GREENVILLE    67  86  63  82 /  97  22   5   9
GREENWOOD     67  86  63  83 /  96  34   8  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/28/15/BB/EC


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