Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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689
FXUS64 KJAN 250218
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
918 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The only change made for this evening is the addition of patchy
fog to the northeast region, around Columbus, for the early
morning hours. As mentioned below, moist soil from previous rain
showers and cooler temperatures create the perfect ingredients
for some patchy fog. Otherwise, clear conditions for the rest of
the night for the CWA and winds start to prevail from the south.
/12/


Prior discussion below:


This afternoon through Tuesday,

In the near term, a cooler weather pattern continues, but a big
pattern change and warm-up will begin to take shape with return flow
developing Tuesday over the ArkLaMiss.

For this afternoon, the upper low to our east has been slower to
exit the area and this is helping to maintain the cold advection
pattern and stratocumulus field a bit longer. In fact, the cloud
envelope actually expanded westward this afternoon as low level flow
veered slightly to a more northerly direction over central MS. With
that said, the upper low is going to be forced eastward as a major
trough and vigorous jet stream energy drive eastward toward the MS
Valley.

So expect clearing skies and chilly temperatures overnight with weak
high pressure bringing light wind. Some patchy areas of fog will be
possible, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area
where less drying took place today and where greatest cooling is
expected tonight. As we go into Tuesday, southerly flow will begin
to increase ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures should
respond in the well-mixed airmass with highs getting back to above
normal values in the low-mid 80s. /EC/

Tuesday night through Sunday...

On Tuesday night we will have shortwave ridging across the region
with high pressure to the east. This will bring return low level
flow into the region. Meanwhile our next storm system will be
approaching from the plains. As we push into Wednesday surface winds
will become rather gusty as surface low pressure in the Southern
Plains deepens as it tracks to the northeast. Some of the winds
could reach Wind Advisory criteria as model soundings shows the
winds mixing to 850 mb. So have put a limited risk of gusty winds
to 40 mph in the delta region for Wednesday. Pwats will rise to
around 1.6 inches in our western areas by Wednesday evening.
Convective rain chances will start to develop across the west
during the day. There looks to be some severe potential for
overnight Wednesday night. As the upper trough track across the
ArkLaTex a squall line will push across the region overnight.
Models show that good persistent instability, strong forcing, and
good shear will be on the menu for the overnight hours. The
primary risks will be damaging winds, and quarter sized hail.
There may be some risk for tornadoes. There is a good chance that
the slight risk graphic will be extended farther east toward
Alabama by early Tuesday. The squall line will exit the region by
early Thursday. The rains will exit the east by Thursday
afternoon. High pressure will move into the ArkLaMiss by Thursday
night. Surface high will push to the east as we get back to return
flow on Friday. Convective rain chances will return to the region
on Friday through the weekend. Meanwhile our next system will be
approaching from the Southern Plains on Friday. Pwats will
increase to around 2 plus inches which is very anomalous for this
time of year with some heavy rain potential. There is also some
severe potential for late Saturday through Sunday night with good
instability, forcing and shear. Will hold off on a graphic for now
and keep the focus on the midweek system./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow. Low
clouds lingering in the GTR area will clear through the evening.
Winds will be gusty tomorrow out of the south with gusts to near
20kts. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  84  60  87 /   0   0   2   5
Meridian      48  84  58  85 /   0   0   1   3
Vicksburg     51  83  63  87 /   0   0   3  13
Hattiesburg   50  85  60  84 /   0   0   2   5
Natchez       52  82  64  87 /   0   0   2  10
Greenville    53  83  64  86 /   0   0   4  25
Greenwood     51  83  61  85 /   0   0   2  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

12



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