Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 071327 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
727 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Updated for morning discussion.


The forecast was updated to include areas of drizzle in all locations
this morning, to better match up with observations. A very moist and
saturated lowest 3 km of the troposphere in a regime of weak low
level lift is squeezing out this drizzle and some locations could
actually measure more than a trace. Low clouds and drizzle should
break up in many areas by this afternoon but it is not inconceivable
the sub-par conditions stick around northern zones through the bulk
of the day. Will do another update later this morning to catch
trends. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...early morning surface analysis had a dry cold
front just southeast of our southeast most zones with high pressure
centered northwest of our CWA spreading southeast across our region.
This cold front has pushed a little farther south than previous
model runs suggested and models are now a little drier with
tonight`s weather. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
showed the broad circulation around a closed low spinning over
Ontario. This was resulting in southwest mid level flow across our
region which will help maintain cloud cover today and a potent
shortwave dropping over the Rockies that will swing east and help
bring rain chances back to our CWA tonight.

Normal afternoon highs run in the upper 50s north to lower 60s
south. Under a light north wind and mostly cloudy skies today,
temperatures will be held below normal across the north but near
normal central and south. Light rain chances will increase tonight
ahead of the shortwave trough and a much stronger cold front that
move into our northwest most zones before sunrise. Breezy north
winds in the wake of this cold front will usher in much colder and
drier air knocking temperatures down into the upper 30s across our
north. Morning lows in the upper 30s are normal this time of the
year for our northern zones. /22/

Thursday through Tuesday...For Thursday the strong cold front will
be pushing out of the region by the afternoon. It will be accompanied
by some very light rain...which will quickly move out of the region
by the afternoon. Breezy north winds in the wake of this cold front
will usher in much colder and drier air with highs mainly in the 40s.
For Thursday night strong cold air advection will bring some of the
coldest temperatures of the season with lows in the lower to middle
20s. A north wind of 5 to 10 mph will for Thursday night will result
in wind chill temperatures in the teens. The center of the cold
airmass, a 1040mb high will become centered over the central plains
by Friday morning. Although these wind chill temperatures will be
above local advisory criteria precautions should be taken to limit
exposure to outdoor pets,animals,and tender vegetation. The large
surface high will shift east centered over the southern Appalachians
by Saturday morning. Lows for Saturday morning will once again be in
the lower to middle 20s. Though a few locations may reach the upper
teens with clear skies and light winds. Models continue to show that
Friday and Saturday morning will be the coldest of the period. As the
high continues to retreat to the east low level southerly flow will
come back to the region. This will cause temperatures to moderate
some. Our next shortwave will affect the region on Sunday into Monday
along with a cold front. The GFS continues to show a little more
amplitude and is faster with the system over the Euro. Opted to lean
toward the slower Euro. Either way some rain will affect the region
for Sunday into Monday and will exit the region by Monday night in
the wake of the cold front. On Tuesday a weak disturbance coming out
of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico in zonal flow will affect the region
through midweek with some rain. The Euro shows a weak surface wave
developing over the old frontal boundary in the Gulf. Both the GFS
and Euro seem to have similar timing with this weak system./17/


12Z TAF discussion:
lowest flight conditions at 1130Z were being reported over cntrl MS.
IFR cigs will continue to prevail at most taf sites with MVFR vsbys
this morning. VSBYs wl improve by 14z but IFR cigs will be slow to
improve to MVFR. MVFR cigs wl prevail this aftn and continue this
evng. /22/


Jackson       57  40  46  25 /  16  18  30   3
Meridian      57  40  48  24 /  15  10  28   4
Vicksburg     57  39  45  25 /  16  26  33   3
Hattiesburg   64  44  52  27 /  10  13  34   4
Natchez       60  41  46  27 /  15  25  39   4
Greenville    51  37  43  24 /  10  28  13   1
Greenwood     51  34  44  22 /  11  17  16   1





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