Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 241505 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1005 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Overall not much changes needed to the going forecast. A hot
afternoon is in store as the 593DM 500mb subtropical ridge drifts
overhead. As previously mentioned, we should mix out some enough for
some shower development this afternoon while surface front misses our
area just to the northeast. This could help some shower development
in our north but overall north of I-20 looks to have best chance as
PW`s are near 1.5 inches while drier to the S, which should limit
development. Subtropical ridge over top of the region will keep
subsidence strong enough and lapse rates and instability in the
region low enough to keep thunder out of the forecast.

Heat stress will be an issue continuing today and going into the
weekend. Dewpoints should mix out enough today to only keep the
limited going in the HWO but no changes need to the HWO/graphics at
this time. Adjusted sky grids to account for current trends. No other
changes really needed at this time. /DC/


.AVIATION...VFR conditions should prevail at all sites. There may be
a few to scattered clouds below 3kft, but ceilings should remain
above 3kft. Isolated showers will be possible tonight, impacting
HBG/JAN/MEI. Showers should be brief. /7/


.DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

Today through Saturday night...

The subtropical mid/upper level ridge will continue to be the
primary weather influence for the ArkLaMiss region as we go into the
weekend. Recent area RAOBS show that strong subsidence and drying
associated with the ridge has maintained a capped airmass, and this
is expected to remain the case. A weak frontal boundary well to the
north may help to incite diurnal thunderstorm activity over northern
MS that could affect extreme northern portions of the forecast area,
but the most likely scenario is that it will remain north.
Otherwise, isolated showers should account for the only rainfall over
the forecast area.

Heat stress will also continue to be a concern in association with
the ridge. It still looks like we will see surface dewpoints mix out
enough to keep heat indices below heat advisory criteria. Have kept
the heat-related graphics going with a limited threat included in the
HWO, but the overall heat threat seems to be slightly less than was
previously expected. /EC/

Sunday through Thursday night...

Summer heat will continue to be the primary concern for the longer
range. Models and their respective ensembles continue to show that
the subtropical ridge will continue through Sunday. Westerly flow
will help to keep temps well into the 90s for Sunday and Monday as
H850 temperatures reach up to near 21 C. Strong subsident capping
under anticyclonic flow will limit convective coverage during the
day. The subtropical ridge will weaken some from the east on Sunday
night, which will allow some convection to develop from the east with
precipitable water around 1.8 inches.

As we go through the work week, the mid-upper level closed low will
help to develop an upper trough pushing down over the eastern conus.
This has continued to be shown by the models and their perspective
ensembles. This will bring some increase in convective coverage as we
move later later into the upcoming work week. The upper trough will
send a front into the region at midweek. These features will cool
afternoon highs into the lower 90s as we move from Tuesday through
Thursday. Also the northwest flow set up may send strong storm
complexes tracking into the region in northwest flow. The frontal
boundary is expected to stall across the cwa before pushing back to
the north on Thursday.

In terms of heat stress, heat Indices will reach around 105 degrees
for Sunday and Monday with lower 70s dewpoints. Its a little early
for mentioning it for Monday in the HWO since we are looking at some
hwo heat for Friday into Sunday. As we push into the work week heat
indices will relax at lower indices with better chances of rain
around. /17/


Jackson       94  74  96  75 /  10   3  11   6
Meridian      96  73  97  75 /  14   4   8   7
Vicksburg     94  73  95  75 /  10   3   5   5
Hattiesburg   96  74  96  75 /   5   4   7   7
Natchez       92  74  92  75 /   7   6   7   7
Greenville    94  75  95  76 /  12   4   4   3
Greenwood     94  75  94  75 /  19   5   5   5


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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