Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 230547
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX IS FUELING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL SPREAD WARM-
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT-RANGE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL SET UP...WITH A FEW TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WOULD MOST LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS...PERHAPS SOONER AT CSV. AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20-21Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS US AND ONTO THE NORTH...SE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SSW BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHWARD QUICKLY...BUT HELD ONTO IFR CIGS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MOST CIGS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUT LOWER CIGS NOTED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
LATEST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 00Z GRAPHICAL SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE LITTLE TOO COOL AS WELL.
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...H-TRIP-R SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAKING A RUN AT OUR SOUTHWESTER CORNER
AROUND 12Z.

FOR THE UPDATE...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW POPS THAT ARE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





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