Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300121 CCA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NASHVILLE TN 820 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH MAJORITY OF SCT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...
MENTIONED SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU REMAINDER OF EVENING HRS. HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF WALL CLOUDS WITH SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR THE
TN/AL BORDER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND 0.5 INCH HAIL HERE PRESENTLY
AT THE NASHVILLE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN OLD HICKORY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND WASH OUT BY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED ALSO AS
THE NIGHT-TIME HRS PROGRESS. THOUGH DIURNAL AFFECTS WILL BE
SUBSIDING...ACTIVITY SCT SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENING HRS. WITH SOME ACTIVITY REMAINING
STATIONARY AND BACK BUILDING ALSO...AND ARE MONITORING RAINFALL
RATES FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS IF NECESSARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HRS ALSO. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING CURRENT TEMPS GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 712 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
OTHER THAN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
AREA 30/18Z-30/24Z IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION PATTERN 30/12Z-
30/24Z...SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
PLAYING A MAJOR DEVELOPMENTAL ROLES...ALONG POSSIBLY WITH SUBTLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHAT THIS ADDS UP TO IS...ALTHOUGH
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT TAF SITES AT ANY TIME/MULTIPLE TIMES
THRU 30/24Z...VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTAL AND LOCATION TIMING.
THUS...WILL GO WITH SCT CB`S AROUND 4KFT...SCT AC 10-12 KFT...AND SCT/BKN CI
20-25 KFT...WITH CONVECTION 30/00Z-30/03Z/REDEVELOPING AGAIN 30/18Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE TWEAK TO TEMP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY FOR ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH REGION
WITH BETTER COVERAGE LYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS AREA LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...BUT WITH THE
CURRENT INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK
COVERAGE MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY SPC... BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS.

THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT DECENT MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASING PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...
AND WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW AND A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAIN...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEK COULD
EXCEED 4 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-STATE...THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  87  68  82 /  30  40  20  70
CLARKSVILLE    67  86  68  81 /  30  40  20  70
CROSSVILLE     65  80  64  78 /  30  60  30  60
COLUMBIA       68  87  67  83 /  30  40  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   68  86  68  84 /  30  40  20  60
WAVERLY        68  86  69  82 /  30  40  20  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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