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000
FXUS64 KOHX 210944
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
444 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Patchy morning fog will again start our day. Upper high this
afternoon will be centered over srn IL by afternoon. This feature is
not very strong but ridging does extend ne across the Great Lakes
region. Northerly ul flow will again be in place. This will combine
with a favorable cape to cap ratio by afternoon. Thus, shower and
tstm chances to the tune of 20-30 percent will again be in play.
No pops for Friday as subsidence takes over by 00z.

Near term temps still looking quite warm with high temps near 90 and
lows upper 60s. This is a good 7 to 10 degrees above normal.

In the ext fcst, hurricane Maria will turn north and be a non factor
for the US coastline. A weak easterly wave will slide westward
across the deep south by Sunday but much of the moisture to work
with will be stolen by Maria. Upper ridging will then rebuild over
the south around mid week.

Our extended temps continue to look quite summer-like. West of the
Plateau, highs will be in the upper 80s with lows generally in the
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Steady pattern of last few days continues largely again today.
Patchy fog will bounce vsbys up and down at a few site but clear
rapidly after 13z. Isolated storms again expected to develop later
today. Have included VCTS for the time being. Convection to die
off quickly after sunset but fog development again likely tonight
...especially toward 09-10z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07