Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 290831
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
331 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
A relatively quiet day is in store as middle TN is under the
influence of higher pressure at multiple levels. Within the upper
level ridging this afternoon, there is a very weak impulse that
may kick off a few showers in the afternoon over western areas.
Hrrr concurs with this as well but the precip will be on the light
side if at all.
All eyes are on the next potent weather system which will continue
to organize over the southern plains today. This system will be
heading our way and will begin to impact our area late tonight.
Impressive storms will likely be firing to our west late tonight
and some of the storminess will make its way into western middle
TN around sunrise on Thursday. The storms will track east during
the morning, but though they will weaken, strong storms, a few
possibly severe will occur west of I-65 between 6 am and 11 am.
A second and much more potent storm threat will begin Thursday
afternoon over western TN. These storms will track eastward and
encounter much more instability. In fact, phasing of omega fields,
the 850 mb jet max, suitable LI values, and appreciable helicity
values all lean toward a potent spring time storm system for the
mid state. Timing looks as though it will be from 3 pm far western
areas, to 10 pm to 1 am eastern Plateau. A rather lengthy and
stormy situation appears to be at hand. SPC has upgraded our area
to a mdt risk west and enhanced for much of the remainder of the
cwa. Note that forcing along the main frontal boundary is weak and
the sfc low itself will be taking a northeastward track. However,
multi staged prefrontal forcing looks apparent and is rather
impressive. A solid mixture of wind damage, hail and isolated
tornadoes all looks possible. Will include severe weather wording
in the zones for both the 3rd and 4th periods.
Moving on, shower chances will continue into late Thursday night and
into Friday. The precip will end by Friday night with a day or
two of dry weather expected. Then, the next system of interest
will move our way and take the form of a rather strong upper low.
This low will track across TN and bring a rather prolonged chance
of showers and tstms from Sunday night through Tuesday. It becomes
rather unstable on Monday so again, will have to watch for more
strong to severe tstms.
Taking a look at our temps, values will be about 10 degrees above
normal for a good chunk of the period. The only exception will be
Friday and Saturday as a brief period of cooler high pressure
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Skies have cleared out and while only MVFR vis is being seen at
KCKV, KCSV should start to see similar reduction in VIS as dew
point depression fall. KBNA should remain VFR throughout the
Winds will be light to calm overnight and pick up out of the
southeast Wednesday afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 79 59 78 54 68 / 10 10 50 90 30
Clarksville 74 58 75 51 64 / 10 30 70 60 20
Crossville 73 57 76 57 64 / 10 10 30 80 50
Columbia 81 60 77 54 69 / 20 10 60 70 20
Lawrenceburg 81 59 78 55 69 / 10 10 50 90 20
Waverly 78 59 75 52 65 / 20 30 80 60 20