Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 112319
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
519 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another fantastic day is under way in Middle Tennessee.  Everybody
has climbed into the mid to upper 50s and Nashville even reached 60
at the top of the 2 pm hour.  It is breezy however as the surface
pressure gradient remains tightened over the region.  This going to
continue into the overnight hours ahead of the shortwave that will
bring snow chances to the mid-state tomorrow morning.  Yes, I said
it.  Snow.  We`ve been talking about it for the last couple of days
and models continue to be remarkably consistent from run to run
regarding this frontal passage tonight.  The only thing that has
changed since yesterday is the models` QPF output.  There`s still a
couple of hundredths, but not as much as yesterday.  So, this is
going to be a "local expert" forecast (hope it pans out!):  I have
bumped the northern half of the Plateau up to an inch of snow
accumulation for tomorrow morning and I`m going to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for this area.  It`s the first snow of the year,
it`s in the prime morning commute time and I will not be surprised
to hear at least a few reports of more than one inch, to be honest.
Deep layer moisture is readily available and with the orographic
support, I think it`s a pretty good chance to occur.  Forecast
soundings do dry out quickly in the late morning hours, so this is
likely to be a 4-6 hour event, with the focus times of 5 am to 10 am
Tuesday morning.  On the rest of the Plateau, a dusting to a half
inch will be possible during this same time frame.

As I said, moisture quickly dissipates and by noon, any snow that`s
falling should end, but it`s going to remain breezy and very chilly
with everyone struggling to reach the upper 30s tomorrow afternoon.

Two more impulses later in the week will give us more chances at
seeing some of the white stuff (one Thursday morning and another
Friday morning), however I think the Friday morning impulse will be
the best chance to see a very similar outcome to tomorrow morning,
with the focus again being on the Plateau.  I will say though, there
could be a chance for a dusting a little further west, for counties
along the KY state line.  Still plenty to be worked out there.

The weekend forecast is still really up in the air.  The GFS and the
Euro couldn`t be farther apart in solution, so I`m just going to
continue to carry a slight chance PoP Saturday night into Sunday. It
does, on the whole, still look like we`ll see a warmup for the
weekend, similar to what we`re seeing today.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Clipper system to move across the area late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Light snow shower activity is possible across the
Cumberland Plateau area. WIll include vcsh for the CSV taf.
Otw...higher clouds to move in this evening with low clouds
after midnight. Otw, look for winds to shift to west-northwest
between 02z and 08z. It will be on the breezy side by Tue
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM CST Tuesday for
Cumberland-Fentress-Overton-Pickett-Putnam.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION DISCUSSION........21



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