Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 272358
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
658 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS IN THE MID MORNING FOR
ALL TAF SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT DURING THE DAY...BUT LOOK TO
BE VFR INTO THE EVENING ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...AREAL COVERAGE SHWRS TUE NIGHT THRU
THU...TEMPS.

GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION THRU MON WITH SOME
SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO MORNING FORECAST REASONING...PRODUCTS.
EXPECT THE MID STATE TO BE DRY THRU TUE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES MID STATE FROM THE W. BELIEVE BULK OF THE LIGHT SHWRS
SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL AREAS. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE IN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN AS IT MOVES EWD...WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE
BEST LOCATIONS FOR LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS ERN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. IN THIS DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF ISO W TO SCT SHWRS PLATEAU TO THE MID STATE ON THU.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER ACROSS THE AREA FRI
THRU MON OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS...BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY WITH WARMER...ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
W OF PLATEAU...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU...EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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