Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 280419
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1119 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

With minimal instability, storms are having a tough time
sustaining themselves this evening. There are a few sources of
lift floating around the mid-state, including one outflow boundary
oriented north-south from Tullahoma northward to Scottsville, KY,
that are helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms, but without
the sustaining instability or any shear to speak of, they will
continue to be weak and short lived. All convection should wane
over the next hour or two as we lose the rest of the day`s
heating. Otherwise, some (eventually) light showers currently over
the MS River could trickle into our far-western zones prior to
midnight and this should be the extent of any precipitation over
the next 6-8 hours. Will bump pops a little over the
aforementioned outflow boundary, otherwise the rest of the
forecast is on track this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms have been working north over
the last several hours in a corridor about 30 miles wide in
eastern Middle Tennessee from Tullahoma and Manchester areas
northward up through Hartsville and Westmoreland into Kentucky
east of Bowling Green. This activity has begun to decrease in
coverage over the last hour with the last lightning strikes
confined right along the Kentucky border north of Westmoreland. I
think we can expect generally vfr conditions at terminals over the
next 24 hours but there will be some late night fog especially at
Crossville. I included vicinity showers at Clarksville and
Nashville after 12z as a minor short wave works up through the
area on 00z GFS model. Showers should affect mainly areas west of
interstate 65 through 18z with activity becoming more isolated and
scattered in the afternoon as short wave lifts north of my cwa.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd



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