951
FXUS64 KLZK 170020
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
720 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A trof over the southern Plains, extending into northern Mexico, was
advancing eastward and ejecting several minor waves over the
southern US.

At the surface, the warmest and most humid air was bottled up south
of a warm front along the Gulf coast, and a difuse cold front
stretched from the Great Lakes region, into southern MO, and down
into Texas.

The upper trof will continue to push eastward, bringing additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight thru
tomorrow. The weak cold front will largely wash out, although
residual  while the warm front to the south never makes it into the
state.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the
area tonight and tomorrow. Moderate levels of instability will
also contribute to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Long term begins with a storm having departed to the east with a
brief period of dry weather forecast to start the long term.  A
ridge of high pressure will build into the region with high
temperatures on Sunday forecast to warm about 10 degrees above
normal with highs ranging from the mid 80`s to lower 90`s. This
ridge will remain in place through the first half of the week with
these above normal temperatures forecast to continue.

Conditions will shift late in the day on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches the state with the ridge departing to the east. This
front will eventually become parallel to the upper level flow
aloft...keeping rain chances in the forecast through the end of the
long term. Beyond the long term there remains some discrepancies in
the models on if the front will remain stalled across Arkansas over
several days and bring repeated rounds of rain resulting in a heavy
rain event. At this point the ECMWF remains the most optimistic that
the front will clear the state.  This will need to be watched in the
coming days to see how the models evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail overnight with CIGs lowering
towards 12z. Some SHRA are possible over Srn sites overnight,
otherwise scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible on Fri afternoon.
Conds should gradually improve through the late afternoon with
CIGs lifting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  77  61  82 /  90  80  50  40
Camden AR         64  81  64  83 /  70  50  40  30
Harrison AR       60  74  59  81 /  60  80  30  20
Hot Springs AR    64  80  63  84 /  60  70  50  20
Little Rock   AR  67  82  66  84 /  60  80  50  30
Monticello AR     66  83  66  84 /  80  50  40  40
Mount Ida AR      63  80  61  84 /  60  70  40  20
Mountain Home AR  61  75  60  82 /  60  80  30  30
Newport AR        66  77  63  82 /  80  80  50  40
Pine Bluff AR     66  81  65  83 /  70  70  50  40
Russellville AR   64  80  63  84 /  50  80  40  20
Searcy AR         64  79  62  83 /  80  70  50  40
Stuttgart AR      68  80  66  82 /  80  70  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...70