Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACRS THE DACKS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS THRU 20Z TODAY...ALONG WITH ADJUSTING FOR LATEST SKY COVER.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY IS A
RESULT OF SFC HEATING...CREATING INCREASED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN 950MB AND 800MB. THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPS...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND SFC TROF
PASSING TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN LESS ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS
FROM NEAR 10F SUMMITS TO 20F SLK TO 30F AT BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST
OF THE GREENS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN
LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT
HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM
THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO
THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV
FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND
KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY
MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF


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