Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 061937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOTHERS DAY. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT FRIDAY...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AND SLIDING AROUND THE
CWA. MOST LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN BACK IN SOUTHERN NE AND WON`T BE A
FACTOR UNTIL OVERNIGHT FOR OUR REGION. WITH THAT TEMPS ARE WARMING
AT FASTER PACE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60`S. WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH GUSTIER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED WEST OF THE GREENS AND NO MODEL ENCAPSULATED THAT DYNAMIC
AT ALL. THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN WEAKEN AFTER 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT, I MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT BY AND LARGE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER LOW GYRES AROUND THE DC AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD, HOLDING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS BUT
NOT SIGNIFICANT. UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 60S, PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS FROM THE LATEST SREF AND 12Z GFS/ECMWF SUITE POINT TO A
06-18Z PERIOD WHERE THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST WITH POPS
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL LINKED CLOSELY TO THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE (PWATS NEARING BUT JUST UNDER AN
INCH), WHICH IN TURN WITH OVC SKIES AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALSO
LIMIT INSTABILITY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MODERATE 12-H HEIGHT
FALLS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL DYNAMICAL FORCING MAY OVERCOME THIS IN
OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. RATHER
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP QPF IN THE .25"-.40"
INCH RANGE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM CLIMBING MUCH IF AT ALL ON SUNDAY, AND WILL ALSO HELP TO
DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30 MPH RANGE.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAY ONLY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES AS CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS GOVERNED BY PRESENCE OF DEEP UPPER
LOW RESIDING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS LOCKED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION, LEADING A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHEAST IN MID-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW. TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO TREND
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BACK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. IT ALL ADDS UP TO A GENERALLY DRY BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BREAKS
DOWN TO BE REPLACED BY A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE THAT SHOULD ALSO
KEEP UP ON THE DRY SIDE, EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. SKC TO A FEW CIRRUS TO START THE PERIOD WITH
LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 00Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR BUT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD SHIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR TO KRUT/KMPV/KSLK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MORNING
ALL STATIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL STATIONS EXCEPT KMPV/KRUT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS UNTIL 00Z THEN ALL STATIONS SHOULD FALL
TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z SAT - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS.
06Z MON - 00Z WED: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MV
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MV


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