Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251032
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
532 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is expected on Sunday with freezing rain and
sleet moving into northern New York during the early to mid
morning hours before changing over to rain. Light ice
accumulations are expected. At the same time snow is expected
across Vermont and will become mixed with sleet over eastern
Vermont in the afternoon while the snow changes to rain across
western Vermont. In addition...gusty southeast winds are
expected across the western portions of the northern Adirondacks
and along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. Winds will
gust as high as 45 mph across these areas. The winds and
precipitation will taper off Sunday night with dry weather
expected on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 AM EST Sunday...No big changes with this forecast
package. Precipitation is pushing into the region from the
Southwest, right on the edge of our forecast area currently.
Thermal profiles still suggest warm nose aloft pushing into the
area and changing mix of sleet and snow over to freezing rain
during the morning hours across Northern New York. There will be
light ice accumulations before changing over to rain this
afternoon. In Vermont, cold air will stick around longer, so
mainly expecting sleet and snow through the morning with about 1
to 3 inches. There will be warmer air near the surface making
it into Western Vermont and changing the snow over to rain late
in the morning. From the Greens eastward, the low level air will
hold on longer, so after some morning sleet and snow, there
will also be a chance for freezing rain late in the day as the
warm air aloft moves in.

Downsloping southeasterly winds will also be a concern
especially this morning. Parts of the western slopes of the
northern Adirondacks and the west slopes of the Green Mountains
will see 35 to 45 mph wind gusts from the southeast during the
morning hours. This will likely have an impact on some areas and
the ability to see any noticeable precipitation as the stronger
winds will limit the snow and sleet accumulations.

Precipitation should be ending by about 00z across the whole
area. There may be some lingering drizzle or freezing drizzle
after 00z for a bit. Quiet weather will then return for tonight
and Monday with no further precipitation and temperatures well
above seasonal normals. Lows will be in the 20s and lower 30s

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Dry weather is expected for
Monday night and Tuesday as ridging prevails at the surface and
aloft. A fast-moving shortwave will traverse across the region
Monday but don`t anticipate much more than an increase in clouds.
Lows will be in the 20s for most, though the Northeast Kingdom will
drop into the teens. Tuesday will be relatively mild for late
February under a mix of sun and clouds; highs will be in the lower
to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Mainly dry weather is
expected through the middle of the week. High pressure centered to
our south will gradually shift offshore, resulting in southwest flow
across the Northeast CONUS. A weak front will slide south out of
Canada later Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may result in a
few rain or snow showers in the northern Greens and Adirondacks.
Uncertainty increases thereafter as the model solutions diverge on
the evolution of an upper low crossing the Midwest into the
Northeast. A primary surface low looks to develop somewhere over
the IN/ON/MI area Thursday, giving way to a secondary low off the
East Coast Friday morning. The question is where this secondary low
develops; the GFS is by far the furthest north and west, producing a
985mb low just off Long Island. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian NH
are further offshore, keeping the secondary south and east of the
benchmark. The GFS solution would bring a messy mix of wintry
precipitation, moderate at times, to nearly all of our forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. The further-offshore solutions would keep
precipitation limited to mainly southern Vermont and primarily in
the form of snow. Have stayed close to a model blend for this time
frame for temperatures and PoPs for now, and limited weather type to
rain/snow, though if the GFS is correct, a period of sleet and/or
freezing rain would be possible.

From Friday night on...a drying trend can be expected heading into
the weekend, though some wrap around showers may be possible as the
low wraps up to our east. Temperatures look to remain above seasonal
normals heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...The TAF period will start quiet with some
scattered mid to upper level clouds and light winds from the
north. Between 08 and 10Z, clouds will thicken and lower and winds
will become southerly/southeasterly at around 10 knots with
some gusts to 20 kts expected. By 12Z, widespread precipitation
will move into the region starting as snow, then transitioning
to sleet and then rain throughout the morning. As precipitation
moves in, expect ceilings and visibilities to deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR. Gusty southerly winds will increase throughout the
morning and peak between 16Z and 20Z at 15 to 25 kts with gusts
30 to 35 kts and turbulence expected aloft. KMSS will be the
only exception with lighter northeasterly winds prevailing for
most of the TAF period. After 20Z, the widespread gusty winds
will start to decrease and precipitation will taper off.
Ceilings will start to improve to MVFR/VFR towards to end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ004-
     007-008-010>012-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ026>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Neiles/RSD



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