Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 280316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST
AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL
CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON
WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF
STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH
GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR
THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND
FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE
MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS,
GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.

DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT
MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE
"WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME
20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER
AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP
IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL
ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION
SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH
AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END,
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY!

SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS
BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR.
WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND
TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT.
SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE
DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE
FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE
TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS
-25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH"
WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT
THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF.

I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A
HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS
AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW
STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH


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