Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 270459
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1159 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
Local water levels continue to recede as cooler temperatures
prevail and runoff decreases. Monday will be quiet
weatherwise...but expect periods of rain with much above normal
temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday. The potential for
additional hydro concerns will need to be watched closely. Much
cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances
for mainly mountain snow showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
As of 852 PM EST Sunday...Quick update to the rest of tonights
forecast to adjust sky cover and temps again. Skies cleared out
over the area this evening allowing temps to fall below
previously forecast mins with a weak surface and mid-level ridge
currently cresting overhead. Not too far upstream though mid-
clouds are fast approaching on the nose of mid-level warm air
advection so still expect sky cover to increase and temps
stabilize around midnight before slowly warming toward sunrise.
Overall min temps will be realized almost everywhere in the next
hour or two with low/mid teens in the Northeast Kingdom,
mid/upper teens in the Adirondacks and ranging through the 20s
On Monday we continue under moderate low level warm air advection as
progged 925mb temps climb to 0c by 18z...with brisk 850mb winds of
25 to 35 knots. Expecting a dry forecast with highs ranging from the
mid 30s to mid 40s depending upon location. A spot rain or snow
shower associated with westerly 850mb flow and some mid level
moisture possible...especially mountain zones.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EST Sunday...Another active period of weather anticipated
especially tue afternoon into weds with more rain and much
above normal temperatures. Large scale pattern shows building
heights/thickness values as se conus ridge develops ahead of
digging trof across the central Plains/Great Lakes. Expecting a
period of rain mixed with snow/sleet on Tuesday
afternoon/evening associated with leading edge of very warm air
mass and ribbon of enhanced mid level moisture. QPF mainly
between 0.10 and 0.25 with warm front feature...with maybe an
inch or two of snow...mountains/northeast kingdom.
Progged 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles surge above 0c by 06z
Weds...associated with 850mb southwest jet of 45 to 50 knots. This
low level jet...combined with 500mb winds of 50 to 60 knots from the
southwest...helps to advect deep layer moisture back into our region
by 12z Weds...as pws approach 1.0". This moisture will interact with
a sharp convergence line/front and potent energy aloft to produce
more showers with embedded rumbles of thunder by 12z
Weds...especially SLV. Will increase pops across our western cwa to
likely/cat with some localized heavy downpours possible...and taper
to chance toward the CPV.
Temps will be challenging during this time period...especially
with strong low level warm air advection on breezy
south/southwest Tuesday Night. Progged 925mb to 850mb thermal
profiles near 0c Tuesday support highs well into the 40s to near
50f valleys with mid/upper 30s mountains. Expect a wide range in
temps Tuesday Night...with sheltered valleys east of the greens
falling into the upper 20s/lower 30s...and some cooler air
filtering down the SLV. Meanwhile...as low level warm air
advection develops...expect western dacks and parts of the CPV
to fall early before increasing well into the 40s to near 50F by
12z Weds. Have tried to show sharp gradient in grids.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 251 PM EST Sunday...An active period of weather returns
for the Wednesday/Wednesday evening time frame as vigorous low
pressure tracks from the northern Great Lakes to the mouth of
the St Lawrence River. General good model agreement exists on
the mean cyclone track, which will put the forecast area solidly
in the warm sector in an unseasonably mild airmass (50s to
locally near 60). I wouldn`t be surprised if daily high
temperature records will be threatened once again in a few spots
on Wednesday afternoon under breezy south/southwest flow. Will
maintain higher chances for showers (60-80 pct) during this
period as well, tapering values off toward Thursday morning as
accompanying cold front and colder/drier cp airmass sweeps east.
Could see some additional minor hydro issues due to
rainfall/snowmelt, but at this point I`m not as concerned to the
degree of our current event.
By later in the week a return to seasonably colder weather is
expected. Lingering flurries/snow showers on Thursday should end by
Thursday night with mainly dry weather and weak high pressure
building atop our area from Friday onward into next weekend.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will be
over the region overnight. The high pressure area will move east
of the region by Monday morning. Expecting surface pressure
gradient to tighten across the region by Monday morning with
west-southwest surface wind gusts at or above 20 knots expected
to develop during the day on Monday, and diminish after 22Z
Monday. Expecting VFR conditions through the period.
Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
06Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions.
18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers
with variable cigs from VFR to IFR depending on time period as
low pressure crosses the region.
06Z Thursday onward...Scattered snow showers/flurries and
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions early trend mainly VFR after 18Z
As of 320 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested with latest
hydro graphs showing water levels receding...therefore the
flood watch has been cancelled. See local flood statements for
latest crest information on our web page.
We continue to watch Tuesday afternoon through Weds time period
closely for the potential for additional river rises associated
with several rounds of showers and embedded downpours. This
expected rainfall along with much above normal temperatures will
result in additional snow melt and the potential for sharp river
rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news
is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep
snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less
runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential