Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EVENING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS
HIGH WILL PROVIDE OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES
MONDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ONLY PROBLEMATIC ISSUE IS THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT ERODES AS
BACKSIDE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH DEPARTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. USED A BLEND OF MODEL 850
RH/LAYER CLOUD PROGS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION BEST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
PESKY STRATOCUMULUS HANGING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BEFORE LARGER SCALE CLEARING OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW UPPER 30S IN FAVORED NRN MTN HOLLOWS AND
LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN MILDER SPOTS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS LIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE LATE IN MOST FAVORED
LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM (THOUGH NEXT
WEEKEND FOR THAT MATTER) WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUGE DEEP
LAYER RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH
MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA. THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME INCONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S ECMWF/GEM AND
GFS/NAM CAMPS IN REGARD TO THE INLAND PUSH OF A COASTAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE NON-
AMERICAN CAMP SUGGESTING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH SUCH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY THIS THREAT FOR NOW CAPPING POPS IN THE 15-20 PCT RANGE
FAR SOUTH...AND LEAVING REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAINLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH MAINLY LOWER 50S IN
MILDER SPOTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THESE
RANGES ARE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL VALUES...THOUGH
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN
FAVORED LOCALES AS LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIVE EFFECTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT VERSION -- MODELS STILL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO. BIG RIDGE SO DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL FRONT SLIDES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, THEN BACK TO DRY AND
SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY.

WANT THE LONGER VERSION??

FRIDAY: AT THIS POINT DISCOUNTING THE MORE NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND OF A COASTAL LOW, SO WITH DEEP RIDGING IN PLACE,
SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN. EVEN IF THE EURO IS CORRECT, THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DRY SO SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST
THING FRIDAY WOULD BE ABOUT IT.  WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO 925MB (ABOUT 2000FT) IF NOT A BIT HIGHER. THUS THE
12-14C TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG I SUPPOSE, BUT MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL -- 40S TO 50S.

SATURDAY: STRONG RIDGING FROM SURFACE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION. SO CONTINUED WARMING AT LOWER/MID LEVELS, WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 16-17C OR SO. THIS SHOULD READILY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 80F (IF NOT A BIT HIGHER) IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, MID/UPPER 70S FOR EVERYONE ELSE. MOS GUIDANCE STILL
LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS IT`S PROBABLY BEING INFLUENCED BY
CLIMATOLOGY. THUS FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S THOUGHT OF GOING
WARMER.  SATURDAY NIGHT, SHOULD BE VERY MUCH LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY: SEE SATURDAY.

MONDAY: AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL SEE A
COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, BUT THEY ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. SO
HAVE ONLY PAINTED IN 15-30% POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT DO COOL DOWN, AS DEPICTED IN 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELD WITH
VALUES FALLING TO 7-9C DURING THE DAY -- MEANING HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S (WARMEST SOUTH). COULD END UP BEING A TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS FAR OUT IS IFFY AT BEST. ALSO
OF NOTE, THE EURO IS A LITTLE MORE "AMORPHOUS" WITH THIS FRONT, AND
SLOWLY OOZES IT DOWN MORE LIKE A BACKDOOR FRONT LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EURO, THOUGH BOTH SUGGEST DRY.
EURO HAS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS WASHING OUT OVER
THE AREA. GFS IS BUILDING IN A SURFACE HIGH. BOTH SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. STUCK WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE BLEND, SO HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR,
WITH EVEN SLK SOCKED IN WITH IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM
THOSE LOW CLOUDS. AS TYPICAL IN EARLY FALL, THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. STILL FEEL THAT WILL HAPPEN NEAR
SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE), LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY FORECAST, THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE SLK AND MPV TO
TANK DOWN TO LIFR SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MSS
AND PBG MAY ALSO SEE A TOUCH OF FOG. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A
TEMPO FOR MSS AS THEIR WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME FOG OVER THE RIVER ADJACENT TO BTV, BUT HOPEFULLY
THAT WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD, THUS NO MENTION IN THE TAF.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE VFR
EVERYWHERE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH





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