Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230921
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area will develop along the mid Atlantic coast
today and will move slowly northeast and be just south of Cape
Cod by early Tuesday night. This low pressure area will bring
snow and sleet and some freezing rain to the north country late
tonight and Tuesday. This low will then move northeast into the
Canadian maritimes by Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 421 AM EST Monday...An upper ridge combined with a
surface ridge of high pressure will keep low cloud cover in
place across the north country today, with cloudy skies expected
and high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Models have continued trend of slowing the arrival time of
precipitation into the region tonight, with the models starting
precipitation between 7 PM and midnight across south central
Vermont, and then after midnight tonight across northern Vermont
and northern New York. Thus, have had to lower QPF amounts and
pops for tonight from the previous forecast, due to slower
onset of precipitation tonight. Expecting a mix of mainly snow
and sleet later tonight, with mainly snow on Tuesday. Expecting
mainly 3 to 7 inches of snow across the region through Tuesday,
with some locally higher amounts up to 8 inches possible.
Although some areas may see snow approaching winter storm
warning criteria, have held off on doing any upgrades at this
time as models have continued trend of slowing start time of
precipitation tonight. Thus, forecaster confidence in upgrading
advisories to warning at this time is low. Expecting snow
slowly to wind down Tuesday afternoon as GFS model showing a mid
level dry slot moving into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system
off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north
and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect
the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder
air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while
eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in
sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to
filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low
moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow
possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of
Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches
possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures
in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring
precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated
with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to
our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or
snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as
eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level
trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout
the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler
but remain above normal by about 5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Expect MVFR to LIFR ceilings across the
area through about 12z before lifting into the MVFR category for
the remainder of the period. Visibilities will generally be
VFR...but through 12z there will be periods of IFR and MVFR
visibilities in fog. Eventually visibilities will begin to lower
once again back into the MVFR category after 00z as some
snow...sleet...and fog develop over the region. Of note will be
strong downslope winds at KRUT after 04z where wind gusts to 35
knots will be possible from the southeast creating rather
turbulent conditions through much of the period at KRUT.
Elsewhere winds will eventually become more east and northeast
on Monday into Monday night with some gustiness as values get
into the 10 to 20 knot range.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Expecting a wintry mix of
precipitation to develop Monday evening and continue into Tuesday
with the potential for moderate icing and major impacts to the
aviation community. A mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain is
expected...with the heaviest precip occurring between 03z-15z
Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr cigs/vis with periods of lifr vis in
the heavier bursts of snow/sleet. Also...gusty southeast/east
winds are likely at Rutland during this time period...with areas
of wind shear and turbulence areawide associated with 925mb to
800mb winds of 50 to 60 knots. Improving conditions with
lingering rain/snow showers on Weds into Thursday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/Taber


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.