Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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