Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO
OUR WEST TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ONLY MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY
EASTWARD TONIGHT. THUS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WILL EXIST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...AGAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL JUST
TO OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A CHANGE FINALLY TAKES PLACE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND PRONOUNCED
DRYING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR
AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN
ENDING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO JUST A CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME
TEENS IN THE COLDER AREAS. WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS WED AND WED PM WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH FRI WILL
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...REGION IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER
TROF STILL UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. OVC SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
OF OUR TERMINALS...WITH VARIABLE CEILING HEIGHTS AND FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. EXPECT ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT
00Z...THEN VFR BY ABOUT 06Z. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN GUSTY TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN VCSH AT SLK HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW
WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES


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