Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 132005
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As snow continues to diminish across the North Country this
afternoon and evening, cold and blustery weather is expected
overnight into Thursday before winds abate. Thereafter a slow
moderation in temperatures is expected into next weekend with a
few snow showers expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EST Wednesday...Overall trends for the next 36
hours will be towards quieter conditions as a brief ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies this afternoon will trend towards a brief period of
clearing skies this evening, but will be short-lived as a weak
secondary clipper low passes to our south after midnight into
Thursday morning. Nothing more than an increase in mid/high
clouds overnight is expected, but will likely have an impact on
meteor shower viewing tonight. If you`re planning on braving the
bitter cold and winds, the best shot at clear skies is likely
between 10 PM and 2 AM. Make sure to bundle up as well as lows
tonight will range from the single digits above to single digits
below zero with wind chills falling into the negative single
digits to teens.

Thursday starts partly cloudy to the north and mostly cloudy to
the south, but as the aforementioned clipper exits off the
eastern seaboard skies will clear again towards mid-day as high
pressure takes control. The airmass is quite a chilly one with
mean 925-850mb temps in the -15C to -20C range, offering highs
only in the single digits to teens above zero, and lows Thursday
night again in the single digits +/- zero, but winds will be
lighter. Atop the high peaks though, temps Thursday will barely
touch zero, and winds will be brisk in the 20-30 mph range, so
if you`re planning on going to enjoy all this great snow we just
got, make sure to bundle up as wind chills will push into the
-20 to -30 below zero range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...Digging shortwave in broad cyclonic
flow will back flow for favorable SW flow and potential lake
effect banding moving northward into St. Lawrence by Friday aftn
into Friday night ahead of surface clipper/front which after
passage early Saturday morning the band will retreat south
again. The flow indicates longest duration parallel or west of
Route 11 then slipping quickly SE-S as clipper and front push
through.

Our thinking matches closely with WFO BUF and thinking several
inches along-South of Route 3 in Adirondacks with perhaps 3-6+
locally along and West of Route 11 in SW St. Lawrence county.

However...upper shortwave and surface clipper along with moisture
fetch from Lake effect banding will bring about light snow/snow
showers late Friday night - early Saturday especially for northern
NY and mountains of VT. Snow squalls a good possibility along the
frontal boundary Sat morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST
Wednesday.... Surface clipper and shortwave moves through NY/VT
Saturday morning with some enhanced upslope flow snows
dissipating during the afternoon. Widespread dusting to less
than inch but several inches possible along western
slopes/mountains and an inch-2 in NE VT hilly terrain.

Quiet Sat ngt-Sunday with slight ridging at all levels then backing
return flow will bring about some warm air advection precipitation
Sunday night-Monday. ECMWF and Canadian are in agreement with a more
amplified robust system, still yielding light pcpn whereas GFS is
outlier with continued ridging and nothing. WPC similar to
ECMWF/Canadian thus following these solutions.

Differences continue Monday night-Tuesday as well but at least have
similar thinking of a northern stream shortwave and weak front
moving across in the Tuesday timeframe with perhaps coastal
development after passing our area although GFS sooner/closer with
coastal development and will back off on this solution for now.

Temperatures near freezing with sub-freezing surface layer may mean
some freezing rain as part of the light wintry mix for Monday-
Tuesday.

Temperatures gradually moderating throughout the period with above
freezing highs in the Monday-Tuesday period and slightly cooler
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Overall looking at improving conditions
this afternoon from MVFR to VFR as skies slowly clear out. Winds
will remain an issue gusting from the west at 20-30kts producing
areas of blowing and drifting snow. So far, restrictions to vsby
have been localized to KMPV and KSLK in the MVFR to IFR
category, and expect this to continue through 00Z. After 00Z
winds begin to abate to 5-10 knots and skies briefly clear.
After 06Z a disturbance passing south will bring an increase of
mid/high clouds from south to north through 12-14Z, before skies
trend back to SKC for the remainder of Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Lahiff


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