Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Above normal temperatures expected today before a cold front
bring a chance for rain showers to the North Country today,
followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. A large
strengthening low pressure system with a warm front extending
eastward into the Northeast will bring another chance for rain
starting Sunday. This system will bring unsettled weather to the
North Country for the first half of the work week.


As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...Increasing clouds with low chance
POPs for mainly the southern half of the forecast area as a mid-
level shortwave moves across the region through midday.
Southerly winds will shift out of the west to northwest behind
the shortwave with a brief period of ridging this evening
through Sunday morning.

Temperatures remain mild today as the day starts off in the 50s
to low 60s. Expect afternoon max temperatures to reach the 60s
to low 70s before winds shift out of the north to northwest and
cooler air begins to filter in. Overnight lows Saturday night
generally in the 30s with clearing skies for the first half of
the night under the aforementioned ridging.

Sunday clouds increase early as the ridge axis at the surface
weakens and shifts east. Warm front associated with large
strengthening closed low in the central USA will influence the
North Country. Models continue to differ on placement of the
front and associated precipitation. Have leaned towards cooler
solution of NAM and ECMWF with clouds spreading across the North
Country earlier and cooler temperatures over the area as the
warm front is draped across the region. Noticeably cooler max
temperatures expected to be in the 40s for northern half of the
area and mid 50s to around 60 for southern portions.


As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Still plenty of uncertainty on
position of surface boundary and associated impacts on weather
and temps across our cwa. Latest trends have been to lift this
boundary north of our cwa on Monday...placing us in the warm
section...except southeast flow around anticyclone over northern
Maine...may keep eastern/central vt cooler. Have utilized a
blend of high res data for grids to show sharp gradient in
thermal fields from highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s
eastern/central VT to near 80f western dacks from Edwards to
Malone. Have noted low level northeast winds at mss on
monday...which may keep the SLV locked in cooler maritime
airmass with highs only in the 60s. As warm front lifts from
south to north across our cwa on Sunday Night...expect some
scattered showers...have placed likely pops along the
international border...where best lift/moisture is located.
Developing mid/upper level ridge and associated mid level dry
air should keep most of Monday dry...before sharp front arrives
on Monday night. Developing southerly winds will help advect
deeper moisture with pws >1.0 and weak instability. Have mention
schc for thunder on Monday Night with likely to Cat pops.
Highest pops/qpf will be western section...with boundary
weakening as it shifts eastward overnight. Overnight lows remain
above normal with values mainly 40s to lower 50s.


As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level trof continues to
develop across the eastern Great Lakes/NE Conus on Tuesday into
Weds...with cooler temps and unsettled weather. The combination
of short wave energy aloft in the stream winds and weak
secondary cold front will produce more terrain focused precip on
Tuesday. Have mention likely pops in the mountains and chc in
valleys with qpf values between 1 and 3 tenths of an inch.
Progged 850mb temps start between 4-6c...but cool to 0c by 00z
Weds...supporting highs with a well mixed boundary layer in the
mid/upper 40s mountains to l/m 60s warmer valleys. Low level
cold air advection conts into Weds with progged 925mb temps
approaching 0c by 12z Weds with breezy northwest winds. Moisture
in the west to northwest flow aloft slowly dissipates...along
with the chances for precip. Expect some lingering
upslope/terrain driven rain/snow showers on Weds morning...with
any qpf very light. After a brief period of dry weather weds
afternoon into large scale system will impact
our region late Thursday into the weekend. This looks to produce
a prolonged period of wet weather with cool temperatures.
Latest ensemble data and 00z ecmwf supports a mid/upper level
low becoming closed off across the eastern Conus with deep
southerly flow advecting a plume of rich moisture into our cwa.
Have increased pops to likely for Friday...with temps near
normal for highs and above normal due to clouds/precip for
overnight lows. Current trends would suggest the unsettled
weather continues into next weekend...with highs mainly in the
mid 40s to mid 50s and lows mainly in the 40s.


Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the period with increasing mid/high clouds lowering to
6-10kft by 12Z Saturday. VCSH included at MPV, RUT and SLK
during the mid to late morning with a chance for some scattered
shower activity as a weak upper disturbance traverses the area.
Winds generally light out of the south to southwest this morning
will shift west to northwest behind the upper disturbance
during the mid-day.


Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Occasional SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.




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