Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 312347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with
little fanfare early this evening. Seasonably warm temperatures and
low humidity levels will continue into Wednesday. The next chance
for precipitation isn`t until Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures
remain generally seasonable Friday into the weekend.


As of 714 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak cold front moving sewd across nrn
VT and nern NY this evening is associated with a band of mid-
level cloudiness, but will otherwise pass through the area dry
during the next 1-3 hours and usher in a cooler/drier Canadian air
mass. Should see skies become mostly clear toward midnight. While
a period of north winds 10-15 mph is expected for a brief time
after frontal passage, winds will eventually become light and
variable during the overnight period. Patchy radiational fog is
likely in a few of the valleys east of the Greens and within the
valleys of the nrn Adirondacks after midnight given favorable
hydrolapse profiles and light boundary- layer winds. 925 mb temps
dip to around +9 to +11C overnight. Stuck with a blend of MOS-
based and bias- corrected temps for mins this evening, ranging
from the upper 30s/low 40s in the Adirondacks up to the lower 50s
in the Champlain Valley.

Shaping up to be another outstanding day weatherwise on Wednesday
under ridge of high pressure and mid-tropospheric height rises.
Abundant sunshine to be the rule with any fair weather cumulus to
be closely tied to the terrain. Looking at highs once again in the
70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds generally
light northerly and strongly governed by lake breeze and terrain


As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday...We will continue to see pleasant
conditions Wednesday and most of Thursday as a ridge of high
pressure crests Wednesday evening over the North Country. That
high pressure will result in partly cloudy skies with still above
normal overnight lows on Wednesday evening in the low to mid 50s.

Most of Thursday will see dry weather with increasing cloud cover
as an upper level low and associated cold front advancing from the
Great Lakes. There is quite a bit discrepancy between the 12z
suite of guidance. Consensus has the front just east of northern
New York by early Thursday evening however speed and intensity
differ dramatically from there. The GFS presents a fast moving
progressive front that brings showers and thunderstorms but is
clear of the North Country before daybreak Friday. The rest of
guidance depicts a much slow solution. I feel the GFS has a pretty
good grasp of the structure of the front however I feel timing is
better with the GEM and ECMWF. So in collaboration with
neighboring offices I trending towards sensible weather from the
GFS with the ECMWF timing painting a picture of a slower moving
front the just enters northern New York Thursday evening and then
clears eastern Vermont by mid day Friday.


As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Scattered showers should be spread
across the Champlain Valley and eastward early Friday but by mid
afternoon the main threat of precip should be over. Pleasant
weather then returns for the weekend as a ridge builds in aloft
and southerly flow returns. Expect mid to upper 70s Friday through
Sunday for max temps with low to mid 50s for overnight lows.

Coming out of the weekend there has been quite a bit of
consistency in both the deterministic guidance and the ensembles
with a long wave trough developing over the central CONUS and then
tracking east by Monday. The individual details differ about
evolution and track but the general idea is the there will be
showers through the beginning half of the work week as the
synoptic pattern is favourable for slow moving showers with a cut-
off low pressure system.


.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00z Thursday...the aviation challenge tonight will be
fog/br potential at mpv/slk. current surface analysis shows weak
secondary cold front with ribbon of cumulus clouds pushing across
central vt/northern ny. this front has produce some gusty
northwest winds 15 to 20 knots this evening...but these winds
along with the clouds will dissipate after sunset. temperatures
will approach the cross over temps at mpv/slk tonight...but
northwest winds continues to advect drier air into the region. in
addition...we are now two days removed from additional
boundary layer drying has occurred. thinking a brief window of
mvfr is possible between 08z-11z in br at mpv/slk. otherwise...vfr
conditions with light terrain driven winds occur at our other taf
sites. on weds expect some mountain driven cumulus clouds with vfr

Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday...Vfr with surface high
pressure continues for thursday...before clouds and showers arrive
on thursday evening into friday. A brief period of mvfr cigs are
possible along with a few rumbles of thunder, especially mss/slk.
clearing with vfr develops on saturday into sunday...with
northwest winds.




NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
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