Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 181907
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WORKING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S,
AS CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM (KFVE IS ALREADY DOWN TO 31F). WITH CLEAR
SKIES, THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, THE ISSUE IS THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
GRADIENT AND SLIGHT WINDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MAINE. THIS COULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
COLD POTENTIAL, AS IT WERE. EVEN STILL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COLD, 25 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ANY SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAN DECOUPLE AND WINDS BECOME CALM. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE MORE NORTHERN AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO SEE A
SOLID FREEZE, AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

A CRISP FALL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WE`LL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S. THEN
SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY ADVANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO INTO MUCH OF THE REGION AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING JUST
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT SAID WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NW AND KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MOST PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS GFS AND CANADIAN WANTING TO
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT RIDES UP THE COAST. THE RESPECTIVE
12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW KEEP THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTING WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE DOES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL BE A LIGHT EVENT CHANCE
TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS THEN TEMPS GO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: MOST AREAS STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY COULD SEE MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH COLD AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND IT.
THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET IN OFFSHORE
FLOW.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO NEAR 5
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
     031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/JORDAN
MARINE...HASTINGS/JORDAN








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