Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 232108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED...ESPECIALLY IF OVER-RUNNING
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION
TO A WARMER AIR MASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL
EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND
WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND
WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS
THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT
LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY
LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE
GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH
ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER
INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO
BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III
GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORCROSS
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS



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