Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN


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