Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE
LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE
SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY
INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A
FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR
ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS
DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG
RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY
LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE
ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS
THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM.

THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY
ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY
CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY
DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT.
THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT





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