Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 180234
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
934 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region this evening and
move east later tonight. A weak area of low pressure will
cross the region Monday. Another low will cross northern
areas later Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
935 pm update...
High clds are spilling into swrn Maine attm with low cigs acrs
the St. John Vly. Temps in this area hv had a hard time dropping
in this area with PQI down to -8 as of 02z. Clds hv mvd into the
Caribou area and temps hv only been able to drop down to 0F.
Will likely hv a wide range of mins by mrng btwn vlys and ridges
with strong inversion just off the sfc as evidenced by 00z
Canadian soundings. Made some adjustments to mins by mrng with
wider ridge/vly split in moclr areas bfr clds mv into ern zones
around 09z. No other chgs needed at this time.

Prev discussion blo...
High pressure, decreasing winds, clear skies and an Arctic air
mass will equate to plummeting temperatures this evening through
later tonight. Temperatures will level out when a cirrus shield
arrives in conjunction with a shortwave upper ridge axis after
midnight. Before that cirrus arrives, some of the normally
colder locations in northern zones could drop towards minus 15-20F.
Most of the area will drop below zero except along the coast.
The cirrus will likely arrive in the southwestern portions of
the area first and then spread towards the northeast before
daybreak. Have entered lows around 4am rather than the usual
7-8am timeframe for this time of year. Areas such as Bangor and
Ellsworth may have tonight`s lows even earlier. The current
expected low at Houlton will be close to a record low for the
date...which is minus 16F. For Monday, a weak shortwave will
arrive from the Great Lakes region and a weak surface low will
be induced near the coast where a decent thermal gradient will
exist. Light snow will develop during the morning in the
southwestern portions of the forecast area and spread eastward
through the afternoon. Around an inch of snow could fall towards
coastal Hancock and Washington counties by Monday evening.
Amounts will taper off inland...and no measurable snow is
expected north of a line from the Moosehead Lake region towards
Millinocket and Danforth. However, it will be cloudy across the
forecast area on Monday. Temperatures will moderate slightly
with highs a few degrees higher than today and winds will be
light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak low pressure will exit across the maritimes early Monday
night. Could still have a chance of light snow Downeast early
Monday night. Otherwise, generally expect mostly cloudy skies
Monday night. Intensifying surface low pressure along with an
upper level disturbance will approach northern Maine later
Tuesday, then cross the region Tuesday night. Light snow will
develop across northern areas Tuesday, then persist early
Tuesday night before tapering to snow showers overnight. Several
inches of snow are expected across northern areas Tuesday into
early Tuesday night. Lesser snow chances will exist southward
across the remainder of the forecast area. The snow could mix
with rain toward the Downeast coast Tuesday afternoon. The low
will lift toward Labrador Wednesday drawing a cold front across
the forecast area. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Wednesday,
with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at near
normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build toward the region Wednesday night, then
cross the forecast area Thursday. High pressure then exits to
the east early Friday while low pressure across the Great Lakes
begins to draw a warm front north. Expect increasing clouds
Friday with light overrunning snow starting to develop during
the afternoon. The low will track toward Quebec province Friday
night while the warm front lifts north across the region.
Temperatures will warm Friday night. Snow will transition to a
wintry mix then eventually begin to mix with rain across
Downeast areas Friday night. Precipitation will generally remain
in the form of snow across the remainder of the region Friday
night, though a wintry mix could begin to develop across
central areas late. The low will track northwest of the region
Saturday which will eventually draw the warm front north of the
region. However, how rapidly the low level cold air is eroded
Saturday remains uncertain. Thus, expect snow to transition to a
wintry mix then eventually rain. Precipitation amounts and exact
types Saturday remain uncertain. The precipitation will then
taper to snow showers Saturday night. High pressure will cross
the region early Sunday. Cloud cover will increase later Sunday
with a chance of snow showers late. Temperatures will be at
below normal levels Thursday/Friday. Above normal level
temperatures are expected Saturday, with near normal level
temperatures Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR thru next 24 hours at northern terminals. HUL may
see MVFR cigs after 21z Mon as low clouds move in from the
south. IFR snow at southern terminals after 18z thru end of TAF
valid time.

SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are possible early Monday night
Downeast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Monday night.
Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across northern areas
Tuesday, with VFR/MVFR conditions Downeast. Occasional MVFR
conditions will occur across the north and mountains Wednesday,
with VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across
the region Thursday through early Friday. Conditions will then
lower to IFR/LIFR levels later Friday into Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected on the water
through Monday except light snow...which will be in the late
morning into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be below small craft advisory
levels Monday night through early Tuesday. Small craft advisory
conditions are then expected later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Visibilities will be reduced in snow early Monday night. Could
have a slight chance of rain Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Norcross
Marine...Farrar/MCW/Norcross



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