Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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254
FXUS61 KCAR 231959
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
359 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the north tonight then stall along the
Downeast coast on Monday. Low pressure will approach from the
southwest Monday night into Tuesday then slide south of the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunshine has finally reached the entire CWA, though it is being
filtered through high clouds up north. It will remain dry for
the afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front currently
pushing southeastward across Quebec will approach the
northwestern border around 00z/8pm. This front is likely to
bring some isolated to scattered showers north of Katahdin that
will start off as rain this evening. Any showers lingering after
midnight could mix with or change to snow, especially behind
the front. Precip amounts will be light for most areas, with
minimal snow accumulation mainly over higher elevations. The
precip associated with this front is forecast to dissipate over
northern Maine by 2 am or 3am, while the surface boundary
continues south to the coast by sunrise.

Ahead of this front, moist onshore flow under clear skies could
allow for some patchy fog to develop after midnight, which would
then clear out as the front pushes through. Clouds are likely to
clear behind the front, with breezy NW winds and highs 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to our north will bring a mostly clear and cold night
Monday night with lows ranging from the low 20s north to upper 30s
Downeast. Clouds will then increase Tuesday night ahead of low
pressure lifting north from the Southeastern states. This low is a
large but weak system with deeply stacked low pressure, but no
strong cold intrusion for support. The low will weaken as it moves
north. Rain will move onto the Downeast coast on Tuesday then reach
northern areas Tuesday night. Rain will continue into Wednesday. The
rain will push east Wednesday afternoon as some mid level drying
lifts into our area ahead of a large frontal system approaching form
the Plains. Rain amounts will range from over an inch Downeast to a
quarter to a half inch across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday night will remain mostly cloudy as low clouds linger
across the area and warmer air begins to move in aloft. Warmer air
will surge north across the area on Thursday. However, with a
southerly wind off the water, much of the warm air will likely
remain aloft with only moderate warming at the surface. Clouds will
give way to come breaks of sunshine Thursday afternoon. Thursday
night will be mild as a warm southerly breeze continues ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move through Friday, possibly
with some showers. High pressure should then bring sunny and
seasonable weather for Saturday. A ridge will be building along the
east coast late in the weekend. Moisture topping the ridging and
tracking along a frontal boundary will then bring increasing clouds
on Sunday with a chance for some rain.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions Sun aftn will deteriorate to
MVFR and perhaps localized IFR CIGS late Sun eve and overnight
for KPQI to KFVE as a front with scattered showers pushes into
the area. KHUL may have a period of MVFR CIGs between midnight
and sunrise as well. KHUL to KFVE are expected to return to VFR
CIGs between 07z and 10z Mon, with VFR conditions expected the
rest of Mon. KBGR and KBHB should continue with VFR conditions
through this evening. MVFR to IFR vsbys are possible overnight
in patchy fog, with fog clearing out between 10z and 12z as the
cold front pushes to the coast. VFR conditions then expected for
the remainder of Mon.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night into
Tuesday. Conditions may lower to MVFR in lower clouds Downeast
Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will then lower to IFR from south
to north in low clouds, fog and rain Tuesday night and remain
IFR on Wednesday. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR
Thursday morning as clouds lift, and possibly reach VFR Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SW`ly winds will increase this evening and overnight,
with gusts possibly approaching 25kts. Winds will drop off
significantly between 3am and noon and may briefly turn offshore
as a weakening front pushes off the coast. Gentle onshore
breezes return in the afternoon and evening, and seas that
briefly reach 3 to 5 ft tonight will drop back to 1 to 3 ft by
Mon afternoon.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday
for southerly winds up to 30 kt. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft by
late Wednesday in response to the southerly winds. The wind
should diminish Wednesday night into Thursday allowing seas to
subside.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Kredensor
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Kredensor/Bloomer
Marine...Kredensor/Bloomer



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