Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221544
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1144 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather for the weekend with
below seasonal temperatures expected. Low pressure will approach
the state on Monday with scattered showers expected before high
pressure builds back in for Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 am update...
Lower dew points continue to filter southward behind the cold
front. Coastal zones will have the warmest high temperatures
today with the onshore flow. There is a weak trough near the
coast that could set off a few late afternoon sprinkles in
coastal Hancock County, but currently expect activity to stay
west of the area. Lows tonight may drop into the upper 30s for
some of the usually colder valleys in Aroostook County. Lower
50s are forecast tonight on the coast.

Prev discussion blo...
1015mb surface high pressure is building thru srn Canada as of
06z. Initial cdfnt has pushed offshore with secondary cold front
now moving into northern Maine. This front is accompanied by
lower dewpoints with l/m 50s currently, mainly to the north of
Katahdin. Further upstream in Quebec lwr 40 dwpts are common and
wl be making headway into CWA tonight.

Showers hv all but dissipated tonight as little frcg exists. Hv
added in patchy fog for this mrng as some rvr vly fog is dvlpng
acrs the north at this time per latest nighttime microphysics
imagery. Expect that this wl not last too long as dry air
continues to filter in fm Canada.

Sunny skies are expected acrs most of the area tda, allowing for
gusty nw winds on the order of 15-20 kts in the aftn. H8 temps
progged to range fm +6C acrs the St. John Vly to +12C along the
coast, yielding temps arnd 70F in the north to lwr 80s for
Downeast in offshore flow.

Not expecting much in the way of sensible wx ovrngt with hipres
continuing to build in. Mins expected to be in the l40s under
clr skies acrs the north tho wud not be surprised to see an upr
30 somewhere in the CWA by Sun mrng.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather is expected for the second half of the weekend as
high pressure will remain the dominant feature. Clouds will
increase through the day, especially in southern sections, as
low pressure pushes eastward across the NY/PA region. Sunday`s
highs will be in the lower to mid 70s in most spots, with
interior downeast approaching 80. Sunday night will be mainly
dry as well with lows in the 40s north and the 50s south.

For Monday...the aforementioned low will continue its eastward trek.
This will allow showers to spread into our area, starting late
Sunday night/early Monday morning and continuing through the day.
The bulk of the precipitation should occur south of a Houlton to
Jackman line, though even the Crown could see a few showers. Highs
will be cooler than the previous day, mainly in the mid 60s to
around 70.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period looks fairly unsettled, though there are
model differences, as usual. The discrepancies start early, with
the GFS and ECMWF disagreeing on the handling of the upper
trough that will move through Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS
has a flatter and more progressive trough, whereas the ECMWF
has a deeper and slower solution. The result is that the GFS
keeps Monday night and Tuesday fairly dry while the ECMWF
produces decent QPF. Have gone with chance PoPs to account for
the uncertainty. Regardless, high pressure looks to build in
Tuesday night and linger through Wednesday night. Then a cold
front will approach and cross the state Thursday and Thursday
night, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Thereafter the models once again disagree on the handling of the
upper trough associated with the low; have kept chance PoPs in
for now. After a cool Tuesday, temperatures will be seasonable
through the rest of the week.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours as high pressure builds in behind
cold front. Northwest winds may gust this afternoon btwn
15-20kts before diminishing after 00z.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail 12z Sunday to 12z
Monday as the region remains under high pressure. Rain showers
will spread from west to east thereafter, with MVFR conditions
likely through 12z Tuesday. Conditions will improve back to VFR
thereafter, with dry weather resuming by Tuesday afternoon and
continuing through Wednesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain well below SCA
levels through tonight as high pressure builds toward the waters.


SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated into early next week as both
winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Farrar/MCW
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/MCW/Hastings



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