Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 232034
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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