Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 032330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE SUFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DEALING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TODAY WIND SPEEDS WERE
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE WINDIER
SITES WERE POKING UP BRIEFLY INTO CRITERIA. EXPECT THE WINDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW SITES
BRIEFLY INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MAINLY NOT. DID SEE A FAIRLY
LARGE SMOKE PLUME SHOW UP ON RADAR FROM NEAR THE PEMBINA/KITTSON
COUNTY BORDER...BUT HOPE MOST ARE FOLLOWING BETTER JUDGMENT AND
ARE NOT BURNING TODAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR MOST OF
OUR COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. THERE WERE SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UP AROUND THE
MANITOBA LAKES REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT THESE HAVE FADED AWAY
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A CLEAR NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS...AND COOL BY WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FOR WED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH LIGHT PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MOST WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION. OTHER
MODELS HAVE EITHER NO PCPN OR VERY MINIMAL PCPN...SO AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. THU LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND
HIGH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL AGAIN
BE PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO BISECT THE FA SOMEWHERE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR DURING
PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
FRONT...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONABLE TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT/SUN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING SHUNTED EAST OF THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DIMINISHING WIND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR WITH NO
CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. OBS AT FIRE SITES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ARE SHOWING 26 PERCENT RH AND WINDS GUSTING
ABOVE 30 KTS...SO WITH COORDINATION WITH MIFC AND LOCAL FIRE
OFFICIALS...EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO
KITTSON...MARSHALL...AND ROSEAU COUNTIES. GRASSES HAVE BEEN GREENING
UP NICELY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT WITH WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRUSH FIRES...WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG GOING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JR



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