Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Clouds continue to be the main forecast challenge. The low clouds
never scoured out in a finger from Cando to Grand Forks to Thief
River Falls to Hallock. A few hours ago it appeared that they
would, but now it is looking much less likely. Therefore in this
finger the warmer temps expected today will probably not be
realized. Just to the south of the highway 2 corridor, the clouds
did scour out and temps will probably reach their expected highs.
However, the decrease in clouds will be short lived.

There is a lot of upstream cloudiness that will spread SE
tonight, and these conditions will last into the day Saturday.
Forecast had low chances for light rain up around the Lake of the
Woods tonight and that still looks reasonable. The forecast also
had some pcpn chances on Saturday along the ND/SD border on into
west central MN. Models today may be a bit further north with
this, but it still looks to be south of the Interstate 94
corridor. Finally, with steady and cooler northwest winds tonight,
not anticipating fog to cause any problems like it has done the
last couple of days. Much cooler for Saturday highs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The second half of the weekend will bring upper ridging and quiet
weather back to the region. Surface high pressure centered over the
area, and maybe a little bit of clearing, will allow temperatures to
fall back around the freezing mark Saturday night. Even with some
weak warm advection throughout the day on Sunday, returning clouds
will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. With a tightening
pressure gradient as the surface high slides off to the south and
east, increasingly breezy conditions Sunday afternoon will persist
into the overnight hours. This should help keep temperatures mild
again for Sunday night with readings in the upper 30s/low 40s.

The main forecast concern for the period will be precipitation
Monday/Monday night for the Halloween holiday with a wave ejecting
out of an upper low across the Pacific. Surface low pressure
developing across the Northern Rockies will propagate across the
Dakotas bringing the first wave of precipitation with a warm front,
lifting south to north across the area early Monday, and additional
wraparound moisture following a cold front. The ECMWF and Canadian
continue to agree with the northern half of the area seeing the bulk
of the precipitation while the GFS still prefers more of a southerly
path. Will continue with the more northerly track consensus with QPF
values on the order of one-quarter of an inch in this area and
amounts dropping off towards the South Dakota border.

Southwest flow aloft will set up across the area for the remainder
of the period with a broad upper trough across the southwestern US.
Models hint at a possible wave moving through on Wednesday which
will bear watching but for now have left the forecast dry. No real
change in thermal profiles with slightly above normal temperatures
(highs low/mid 50s and lows mid/upper 30s) through the end of the
work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Cloud trends are the main challenge. KGFK/KTVF/KBJI are all on the
edge of the low clouds. However, just nearby conditions are VFR
and therefore much better. Trying to figure out what will happen
the rest of the afternoon is a very tough call. Latest visible
satellite trends seem to show a very short window for all the TAF
sites but KFAR getting into the VFR range early this afternoon.
Upstream the ceilings are all MVFR and IFR, and these will come
down late this afternoon into tonight. Any of this will take
longest to reach KFAR, which did manage to get some clearing. So
for the northern TAF sites along highway 2, VFR conditions will be
tough to get even for a few hours this afternoon. Once the
upstream clouds come down, it will stay that way into Saturday.




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