Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
119 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Upper low will lift northeastward, out of North Dakota and into
southern Manitoba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the western states and push a previously cut off
area of low pressure eastward across Texas through the day on
Thursday and into Friday. Upper flow will transition to a west by
northwest direction as the H5 ridge becomes very amplified and
nearly stationary over the southwest on Friday and Saturday,
reaching all the way into southern Alberta. An upper low will move
into southern California late on Saturday and moderate as it is
influenced by the blocking ridge. Upper flow will gradually become
north northwest as we head into Sunday. Temperatures will warm
significantly as the ridge influences the region and superblend is
coming in gradually higher with each iteration. I would not be
surprised to see areas in the southern portions of the CWA rise to
90 degrees or higher on Friday and Saturday. The upper low will help
moderate the amplification of the ridge on Sunday and Monday,
pushing it slowly eastward at the same time. Overall, the pattern
will remain warm and dry through Sunday with PoPs increasing
slightly as we head into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will develop around mid afternoon near the
Kansas and Colorado border then move east and become numerous in
the evening hours. KGLD could see a thunderstorm impact the
terminal from mid afternoon to early evening...while KMCK will
probably be impacted from early evening to around midnight. Brief
gusty winds, hail and reduced visibility in heavy rain or blowing
dust will be possible. Storms will gradually end after midnight.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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