Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230736
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTON COUNTY. RAP/HRRR SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND TO A FEW MORE
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITTING
UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THIS
MORNING EXITING TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNSET. WILL HAVE MENTION IN
FORECAST. ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE CWA UP FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS WELL GOING LGT/VAR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE AND AMT OF QPF RECEIVED OVER THE CWA WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
EXPECTED. EASTERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT STILL WILL AFFECT FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN FORECAST...CARRYING AREAS OF FOG
EAST...PATCHY FOG WEST TO JUST OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
NORTHERLY FLOW TAPERING TO LGT/VAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID
40S.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...CWA WILL SEE A FEW MORNING HOURS OF FOG
DISSIPATING BY 15Z AS LGT/VAR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A SSW
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID
MORNING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CARRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. 850/500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO AREA ON SSW FLOW.
WITH 925 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20C-23C RANGE...CWA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.

WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.

AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.

SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU 08Z-09Z THURSDAY AT
WHICH TIME AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP.  VISIBILITY AT KGLD IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 4-5 MILES...BUT KMCK WILL DROP TO LIFR IN
CIGS/FOG AFTER 08Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF...SCT120/SCT200 WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF



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