Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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991
FXUS64 KLIX 232051
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Cooler and drier high pressure is currently building into the
region at the surface while sharp trough axis aloft swings
eastward. Cool to mild conditions will be in place Monday and
Tuesday with steady moderation of the air mass Tuesday.
Temperatures are consensus of model guidance, with pretty good
agreement overall. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
Models are showing better troughing with some minor negative
orientation in the base of the trough per ECMWF over east Texas
Wednesday. The GFS is farther north and less amplified with the
system. A compromise solution appears best, thereby bringing some
slight rain chances to the area Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Very shallow and weak high briefly builds in the front`s
wake but erodes quickly during the day Thursday for onshore flow
in response to a much deeper system developing in the Plains
States next weekend. It appears most of the activities taking
place across the forecast area next weekend with be unaffected
aside from perhaps moderate to strong southerly winds, with the
bulk of weather impacts holding off until later in the evening and
overnight hours. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
rontal system and precipitation have moved away from the area.
There is a band of fairly thick clouds over central Mississippi that
may rotate through the area this evening, but as sun angle lowers
late this afternoon, expect much of the cloud cover to dissipate,
with VFR conditions expected overnight into Monday. North to
northwest wind gusts above 20 knots are likely to affect KNEW and
possibly KMSY...late this afternoon and overnight before abating. 35

&&

.MARINE...
Will hold on to marine headlines as is, since Small Craft Advisory
conditions are still several hours from kicking in. Headlines are
likely to need extended through much of the day Monday for at least
the eastern waters before the cold advection relaxes. High will move
eastward, bringing return onshore flow back to the area by late
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Likely to need Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines for some or all of the coastal waters for the
second half of the work week as storm system as storm systems rotate
through the middle of the country. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  50  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  54  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  47  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

24/RR
35



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