Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 230929
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface lows centered over western North Carolina and northwest
Georgia, with weak high pressure centered over Texas. With a 25+ mb
pressure gradient between the two, it`s a quite breezy early Monday
morning across the area. Precipitation has departed the area, and
the west edge of low cloud cover is approaching the Atchafalaya
River Basin. Temperatures were in the mid and upper 50s across the
area, with dew points ranging from the mid 40s west to lower 50s
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Much more benign weather for the next few days, as strong low
pressure moves away from the southeast. Wind advisory was allowed to
expire at midnight. Main forecast problem for today will be the
timing of the clearing from the west. Expect that most significant
cloud cover will depart the area by early afternoon. Winds should
gradually subside as well this afternoon. Dry weather should
continue through at least Tuesday night. Next deep low pressure
system will move from Colorado tonight to near Lake Erie by
Wednesday evening. This will push a cold front through the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The airmass will be fairly dry, but
could still see scattered showers just ahead of the frontal passage.

Arctic air was not involved with the current storm system, so even
with the cold front passage, temperatures today will still be
slightly above normal, with overnight lows tonight near normal.
As winds return to an onshore component Tuesday, temperatures will
warm to well above normal levels again. Highs Tuesday will be near
70 and well into the 70s on Wednesday. Not a lot of variance in
guidance temperatures through Wednesday, and have taken the blended
solutions. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

With the departure of Wednesday`s upper trough to the Atlantic
coast, upper flow across the southern states will be zonal for
Thursday and Friday. Upper low closes off over Arizona and
northern Mexico over the weekend, while impulses rotate around
large upper trough over the east coast. This will reinforce the
cool air in place across the eastern half of the country. If there
is any precipitation at all over the weekend, it is likely to
remain just offshore.

Temperatures for Thursday through the weekend will be much cooler
than we have experienced for the last couple weeks, but even so,
won`t be very much below normal, with any subfreezing temperatures
likely limited to the usual well protected river basin drainage
locations. Little variation in high temperatures, and have
accepted those. Have trended toward the cooler low temperature
guidance, may take a couple days for the blended guidance to catch
up. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Wrap around clouds continue yielding MVFR conditions at all
terminals this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR today. Winds
will remain a little bit gusty especially at KNEW and KMSY. VFR
conditions should prevail through the rest of the TAF period after
this mornings low cigs. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

A Gale Warning continues through 9 AM this morning as the low
pressure system continues to move out of the region. The pressure
gradient should relax a little bit and winds should fall into strong
small craft advisory criteria. Low Water Advisory will continue
through noon this afternoon. Tides will run around 1/2 to 2 feet
below normal which can be just as dangerous for the marine industry
moving through protected water systems such as bayous, canals,
lakes, and rivers. Conditions greatly improve tonight into Tuesday
as winds abate as we return to more normal state across the entire
coastal waters for the rest of the week. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Gale Warning. Small Craft Advisory.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  40  70  53 /  10   0   0  10
BTR  63  42  72  56 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  66  43  70  54 /  10   0   0  10
MSY  64  47  71  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  64  43  66  58 /  10   0   0  10
PQL  67  41  68  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538.

&&

$$



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