Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 242142
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
342 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A vigorous storm system currently moving across the upper Midwest
and into the Great Lakes region will push a cold front across the
forecast area tonight. Since moisture is rather limited across
the region, only isolated to at best scattered showers are
expected with the passage of this boundary late this evening and
during the overnight hours. Some patchy fog will be possible prior
to the passage of the front. In the wake of the cold front, high
pressure shifting east across the region will result in dry and
cooler weather through the weekend with temperatures averaging
closer to normal, even somewhat below average for lows Saturday
night. This cool down will be brief as warm weather returns for
the beginning of the work week with a warm front pushing north
across the area on Monday. Impulses in the fast west southwest
flow aloft out ahead of a broad western conus upper trough will
act on increasing and deepening moisture over the area to yield
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday, with
the best chances across northern sections of the forecast area and
points north. Lower rain chances will be in the offing for Mardi
Gras day with the best chances remaining to the north of the
forecast area. However, as an upper trough traverses the central
conus by mid week another cold front will be pushed across the
forecast area Wednesday resulting in another round of convection
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier and cooler weather is
then expected for the end of next week. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites through
Tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Rain is not
expected with this front only a wind shift is expected. Winds have
been out of the south all day and expect those winds to shift from
southerly to northerly by daybreak Saturday. Expect VFR conditions
to prevail on Saturday. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
No major changes have been made to the forecast. Have issued Exercise
Caution for all coastal waters starting tonight and into Saturday
afternoon. Will have to watch to see if Small Craft Advisory will be
needed as the Small Craft Criteria winds may only last for a brief
time tonight into Saturday. Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots will
continue through this evening. Tonight, a strong frontal boundary
will sweep through the coastal waters resulting in a period of
strong northwest and then north winds of 20 to 25 knots through
Saturday morning. Seas should also ramp up quickly due to these
winds with seas of up to 6 feet possible over the offshore waters by
tomorrow morning.  As high pressure settles over the Tennessee
Valley, winds will relax slightly into exercise caution range of 15
to 20 knots by Saturday afternoon. A decent pressure gradient will
persist over the Gulf, and expect to see winds remain in the 15 to
20 knot range through early next week even as high pressure shifts
to the east and winds turn back to the south by Sunday night.  A
fast moving low pressure system will race from the Southern Plains
into the Midwest Monday keeping a tighter pressure gradient and
persistent onshore flow of 15 to 20 knots in place. Seas will remain
rather choppy at 3 to 5 feet through this period. The wind field may
relax a bit by Wednesday as the pressure differential over the Gulf
weakens, but still expect an onshore wind of 10 to 15 knots to be
the rule. Another cold front is then expected to bring stronger
offshore winds to the coastal waters for the latter part of next
week. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities:

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  63  36  67 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  49  66  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ASD  51  68  38  67 /  30  10   0   0
MSY  55  67  48  68 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  53  67  39  65 /  30  10   0   0
PQL  53  69  37  65 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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