Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 300047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
2100 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT ABOUT 6.7 C/KM. STORMS
WERE MARGINALLY SEVERE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT
1.93 INCHES AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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