Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 252117
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
417 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure has settled over the Gulf coast region with low
humidity persisting with clear skies. Temperatures were warm, in
the lower 80s, but this is below the seasonal normals which are
upper 80s for highs. Friday will be the transition day as temps
will warm to the mid to upper 80s. It will be more humid, but
still not oppressive as dew point temperatures are expected to be
in the low to mid 60s until Friday evening when southerly winds
will begin to bring the warm muggy conditions back. Everyone will
retire Friday evening with rather nice conditions and wake up
Saturday morning to dew point temps back in the low to mid 70s
which will be noticeable. These muggy conditions look to persist
through the majority of next week if not longer.

The pattern will be progressive with a shortwave trough moving
from the northwest states east-southeast into the central
U.S./upper to mid Mississippi valley over the weekend. This will
push a frontal boundary south that will be approaching or moving
into the forecast area on Memorial Day. Temperatures will be
warming above normal with most areas in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Friday through Sunday, except for some cooler mid 80s in some
coastal areas. Sunday is still expected to see the first chance of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing, but these should
remain isolated in coverage in most areas. Higher rain chances are
still forecast on Memorial Day with the frontal boundary sliding
into the region. With the warmer temperatures will be a chance for
a few stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms, possibly in
northern areas Sunday and across the area on Memorial Day.

The cold front should move south and stall near or just inland
from the coast late Monday or Monday night. Once the front
stalls, some weak jet support will keep showers and storms in the
forecast Monday night as well. The trough that is left along the
coast will remain a focus for convective development helped along
by the daily collision of a sea breeze. This diurnally driven
cycle should last through Friday. Temperatures should remain
fairly close to the seasonal normals. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. 35

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will remain
dominant over the eastern to central Gulf into the weekend.
Lowering pressures and a cold front sagging south over the
southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley will result in
southerly winds across the central Gulf coast, mostly 10 to 15
knots, but up near 15 knots or a bit higher at times over the
western waters Friday morning, and cycling up near 15 knots over
much of coastal waters at times at night Friday night through
Sunday night. Seas will be mostly in 2 to 4 feet range through
early next week. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring Mississippi River flooding

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  89  70  90 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  65  89  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  64  87  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  69  87  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  67  84  74  85 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  62  85  70  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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