Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 232041
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
241 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Deep layer northwest flow will remain in firm control of the Gulf
South through the weekend. A strong vorticity maxima and
associated reinforcing cold front will slide down from the
northern Plains Saturday, and then pass through the region
Saturday night. This system will be moisture starved, so only some
passing mid to high level clouds are expected as it moves through.
Otherwise, continued dry air advection will keep skies clear and
humidity values low through the weekend. A combination of clear
skies and light winds should allow for strong radiational cooling
tonight. A light freeze may occur over parts of the Northshore and
Southwest Mississippi, and have opted to issue a freeze warning
for a light freeze in the aforementioned areas. Temperatures will
remain below average tomorrow with highs only warming into the
middle 60s. Some modification of temperatures is expected tomorrow
night and Saturday in advance of the next approaching short wave
feature, but this slight warming will only push readings closer to
seasonal averages in the 40s at night and the upper 60s and lower
70s during the afternoon hours. Temperatures on Sunday should dip
back below average in the middle 60s as some colder air advects in
behind the reinforcing frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...

A deep layer ridge axis will build over the area on Monday and
Tuesday. This strong ridging will keep clear skies in place as the
atmosphere remains dry and stable. A lingering 925mb cold pool on
Monday should also keep temperatures around 5 degrees below
average on Monday with highs once again only rising into the
middle 60s. Monday morning lows should cool into the upper 30s and
lower 40s at most spots. By Tuesday, the 925mb cold pool should
shift east of the area, and expect to see temperatures climb back
to seasonal averages.

All of the guidance is in agreement that another short wave trough
should affect the region Wednesday into Thursday, but the models
differ on the exact timing and strength of this storm system. The
GFS shows and faster and slightly stronger vorticity max sliding
through the area compared to the weaker and slower European model.
At this time, have opted to go with a blend of the solutions for
the middle of next week. Have a low end chance of showers moving
through the area as this short wave trough axis and surface front
approach on Wednesday, and then keep a slight chance of showers in
place through Thursday closer to the Louisiana and Mississippi
coasts as the front begins to push offshore. Temperatures should
remain near average both Wednesday and Thursday with highs around
70 and lows in the 40s. Little in the way of cold air advection is
anticipated with this next storm system since the airmass moving
in is coming off the Pacific as opposed to northern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CAVU conditions to prevail all terminals next 24-30 hours.
24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the north gulf will remain in place, becoming
re-enforced over the next several days. This will maintain relatively light
winds and low seas for the next 5 days. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  31  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  34  66  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  33  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  36  65  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  33  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for LAZ037-039-040-
     071-072.

GM...None.
MS...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for MSZ068>071-077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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