Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 251606
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1106 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...Temperatures running a little ahead of the forecast and
with the southwestern half of the CWA looking like it will remain
out of the cirrus canopy temperatures will likely continue to
slowly rise with a few areas likely topping out in the lower 90s.
Otherwise the forecast is running as expected. Still watching for
the possibility of an isolated storm or two this afternoon,
especially if temps run into the 90s. Grids and zones have already
been sent out. /CAB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 821 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning is capped with an inversion at 825 mb.
This should keep the area rain free today although there is at
least a chance an isolated storm or two could fire with peak
heating this afternoon to the northwest and in the Baton Rouge
area. Most unstable CAPE is near 2000 J/KG. Another subsidence
inversion is aloft at 425 mb. Winds are southerly from the sfc to
800 mb then become northwest. PW is near average at 1.26 inches.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Dew pt gradient will still exist today from moist west to dry
east. Precip water values in sounding profiles also show this from
1.90" near Baton Rouge to near 1.5" at Picayune. General flow
will still be parallel to this gradient. The difference today will
be slightly better upper jet support. An area of divergent flow
and the nose of a slightly stronger 55-60kt 300mb jet will move
out of east Tx directly over the base of the moisture gradient
helping to induce some gentle lift on subsequently lower atmos
layers. This area will be located mostly along and west of a line
from McComb Miss to Lake Maurepas to Pierre Part La which is
colocated with the higher moisture content. 20% will suffice for
coverage since it will be difficult for anything to get going. The
problem is "if" something is able to get going...there will be a
better chance of a severe thunderstorm being generated. There is
no tornadic or hail threat but downburst winds would be possible
if a storm is capable of producing lightning which means it will
have broken through the lowest inversion and taken advantage of
good sfc heating. This also means that it would be deep enough to
entrain dry air from a dry air tongue at 700mb which is what would
cause the higher density from evaporational cooling. This is of
course all conditional which is the reason for the low
probabilities.

Isolated chances of thunderstorm activity should begin to move
into the scattered variety possibly by next week. The heat will
continue to be on the rise but slowly. Temps have rarely been in
or around the 90s so far until yesterday. This should become a
little more common over the next several days as summer begins to
make its presence known.

LONG TERM...
This general pattern looks to take over most of next week. Hot and humid
with scattered thunderstorms along with isolated severe never
being ruled out. Sounds a lot like a normal summer regime around
here.

&&

.AVIATION...

All TAF sites currently experiencing VFR conditions. Can`t rule out
a brief period of MVFR ceilings around sunrise, primarily at KMCB,
KHDC and KBTR. These conditions should improve to VFR shortly after
sunrise. VFR conditions should be the rule during the day.
Probabilities for low ceilings increase late tonight into Thursday
morning. 35

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure remains centered over the Carolinas this morning.
Onshore flow should remain in the 10 to 15 knot range into Friday.
May need some Exercise Caution headlines by Friday. With the
persistent southeast winds, a bit of swell may build up toward the
end of the week. This may also enhance tides, which will need to be
monitored the second half of the week. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  88  71 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  91  73  88  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  88  71  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  89  74  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  85  74  85  75 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  85  66  85  68 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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