Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 041419

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
919 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

Easterly flow continues with shallow cloud layer from off the
Atlantic keeping skies relatively cloudy for eastern sections of
the region. Aside from a few sprinkles, dry conditions should
prevail with temperatures in low 80s for maxima.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/

Generally VFR conditions will prevail. ESE wind of 12 to 15 knots
expected through the day, then 5-10 tonight. Few gusts in excess
of 20 knots this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/

Large mid/upper level high pressure extending across Florida from
the northwestern Caribbean Sea will gradually lose its grip across
our region as the work week progresses. A closed mid/upper level low
over NW Mexico today will move NE across the southern U.S. through
Tuesday, helping a low pressure/cold frontal system to move east
across the Gulf of Mexico and enter the Florida peninsula Tuesday.
This front is then forecast to stall across South Florida on
Wednesday as the mid/upper low moves well to our N and E. Another
stronger cold front will then plunge south down the Florida
peninsula on Thursday and looks to clear the area late Thursday or
early Friday.

Near-term (today): surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic
states and the old front over the central Bahamas will keep a
moderate east wind flow along with slightly more clouds compared
to yesterday. Moisture still too shallow for any mention of
precipitation. Highs today will range from near 80 east coast to
mid 80s interior portions of SW Florida.

Short-term: (tonight through Tuesday): winds become SE on Monday
then S/SW on Tuesday as the high departs and the Gulf of Mexico
cold front approaches. GFS model has a shortwave trough moving
through South Florida on Monday which then aids in the development
of showers across the area. Moisture remains shallow and models
are in some disagreement on rain chances for Monday, so went with
a 20% area-wide to account for the possibility of showers.

Main band of convection with the front approaches the area on
Tuesday, however with the mid/upper level low pulling away from
Florida and rather weak dynamics, any showers across South
Florida will be limited and confined mainly to the Gulf coast and
Lake Okeechobee areas. POPs range from 30% SW Florida and Lake
Okeechobee area to 20% east coast.

Temperature/humidity increase in the southerly wind flow to above
normal Monday and Tuesday, with lows in 60s/lower 70s and highs in
the 80s under muggy conditions.

Long-term (Wednesday into next weekend): Front stalls over South
Florida on Wednesday as the mid/upper low leaves the front behind
with no further push to the south. Scattered showers are expected
to linger over most of the area, mainly during the day on
Wednesday. Bigger changes appear to be in store for the end of the
week as a stronger cold front plunges across the southern U.S. and
into the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Current model timing of
the frontal passage for South Florida ranges from during the day
Thursday to early Friday. Air behind this front is of Arctic
origin, so current indications continue to point to a noticeable
cool down Friday into next weekend. The center of the Arctic high
pressure probably remains along 35N longitude as it moves S and E
across the southern U.S., which would result in the core of the
coldest air staying north of our area and a rather short-lived
cool snap. For this forecast package will indicate lows by next
Saturday in the 40s west and 50s/near 60 east which is a bit
warmer than yesterday`s forecast. Highs for the end of the week
are forecast in the 60s to lower 70s.

East winds around 15 knots today veer to the SE and increase a
little tonight and Monday, with caution conditions possible. Winds
come around to SW on Tuesday and could reach 20 knots in the
Atlantic before decreasing on Wednesday as the front stalls over
South Florida. Next significant marine impact will be with the
stronger front late-week which looks to increase winds to 20 knots
or greater by Friday.

Moderate to strong rip currents were reported at the Atlantic
beaches yesterday, and with similar winds forecast today we
decided to keep the high risk of rip currents in effect through
tonight. THe rip current risk will remain elevated on Monday with
moderate SE winds. SW winds on Tuesday diminish the rip current
risk on the Atlantic side but will increase some at the Gulf

Through yesterday, Naples Municipal Airport has gone 58
consecutive days without measurable precipitation (going back to
October 7th). This is the second longest streak without
measurable precipitation on record at Naples. The record longest
streak is 61 days set in early 1949. It will probably be a close
call as to whether the record is matched or broken as Tuesday
would be the day when the record would be tied and there is a 30%
chance of rain for Naples that day.

West Palm Beach  80  74  82  74 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  74  81  75 /  10  20  20  20
Miami            82  74  82  75 /  10  20  20  10
Naples           84  70  84  72 /  10  10  20  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.


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