Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 300232 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD


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