Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

POPS/WX have been updated for potential of scattered showers
tonight across South Florida. An approaching trough/front system
from the Gulf will bring better chances for rain and thunderstorms
on Thursday. Forecast will carry chances for thunderstorms
beginning at 12z Thursday, but a stray storm or two could briefly
develop overnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017/

The winds will be light and variable tonight over all of the taf
sites, before going to a southeast direction around 10 knots on
Thanksgiving day. The only exception to this is at KAPF taf site
where the winds will go southwest in the afternoon hours of
Thanksgiving day.

The weather should remain dry tonight over all of the taf sites,
but showers will develop during the morning hours of Thanksgiving
day and become more widespread over the taf sites of KPBI, KFLL,
KFXE, and KAPF tafs sites by afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH for
all of the taf sites on Thanksgiving day with any SHRA conditions
in the afternoon hours for the sites of KPBI, KFLL, KFXE, and
KAPF. The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions through
Thanksgiving morning, but should fall down into MVFR conditions
for the mention taf sites above during the afternoon hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017/

Short Term (Tonight-Friday)...a decaying frontal boundary extends
across Central Florida, while model data keeps depicting an
amplifying mid-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This trough will send a series of energy impulses across the
region, which will enhance shower activity and increase the
potential for thunderstorms starting late tonight and into

The trough will also push an associated front across the area on
Friday, supporting convection, gusty winds and periods of heavy
rainfall. Models are depicting enhanced thermodynamic parameters,
with moderate CAPE, increasing vertical wind shear and PWATS
around 1.5 inches. Best dynamics seem to remain over the northern
half of the state, however, can not rule out a strong storm or
two over South Florida Thursday and Friday.

All in all, expect a rather wet Thanksgiving Day with shower and
thunderstorm activity continuing through Friday afternoon.
Localized brief downpours are possible with the strongest cells.

Temperatures remain relatively warm with afternoon highs in the
low 80s across much of the area, morning lows in the mid-upper
60s away from the coast, and low 70s near the coastal metro areas.

Long Term (Friday night-Tuesday)...models show drier air filtering
into the region on Saturday in the wake of the trough/front
complex. Remnant moisture could still support some light showers,
but mainly in the morning hours.

Drier and cooler conditions will spread across the region through
early next week with morning lows on Sun and Mon dropping into
the low-mid 50s interior and low 60s near the coast. Afternoon
highs will struggle to reach 80 over much of the area.

MARINE...mainly benign weather conditions will prevail across the
coastal waters until the front passes later in the week, expect i
the vicinity of any heavy shower or thunderstorm that may form
Thursday or Friday. A frontal boundary moves across the area
Friday, with increasing winds and seas behind it during the
weekend likely bringing some hazardous marine conditions.

AVIATION...Both seabreezes moving inland this afternoon with
speeds 8-12kts. Occasional SHRA possible after 20Z, mainly over
interior. Approaching system may allow additional SHRA to develop
after 02Z, so have included VCSH in most of the TAFs as activity
lifts from the south. Light SE winds after 02Z, with MVFR fog a
concern again after 06Z. Winds pick up out of the SSE after 14Z
10-15kts with potential for gustiness. SHRA coverage increasing
through the day tomorrow with approach of Gulf system.

West Palm Beach  70  81  67  81 /  40  60  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  72  82  70  82 /  30  50  60  40
Miami            72  82  70  82 /  30  50  60  40
Naples           68  81  68  79 /  20  80  60  40



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