Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 280731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION....13/SI



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