Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230223

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
923 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE 2...
Quick update to the forecast for tonight. The showers have ended
over the mainland areas, and the showers over the Atlantic waters
will continue to move slowly to the east through the overnight
hours. Therefore, the shower wording has been removed from the
mainland areas and most of South Florida waters for tonight,
except for the Atlantic waters.

Patchy fog has also develop around the Lake Okeechobee region this
evening. The fog should continue to develop over rest of the
interior and west coast metro areas through the overnight hours,
due to the low level moisture in place along with light winds and
skies becoming partly cloudy. Therefore, patchy fog wording has
been added to the interior and west coast metro areas for late

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 740 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017/

early evening radar data shows the bulk of the shower activity has
shifted into the Atlantic coastal waters as a low pressure system
over the eastern Gulf continues to approach the Florida
peninsula. For the rest of tonight, most of the remaining showers
over land will remain light, but a localized downpour is still
possible. Best chances of rain and even a few brief thunderstorms
reside over the eastern half of South Florida, including the metro
areas. Only included minor adjustments to overall rain coverage
to better reflect latest radar data. Otherwise, forecast
philosophy remains on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017/

The winds will be light from the westerly direction tonight at
most of the taf sites, except for KAPF taf site where they will be
light and variable. The VCSH will continue at all of the taf sites
until 03Z tonight before going dry for rest of tonight. The
ceiling and vis will also remain in the VFR conditions tonight
over the east coast taf sites.

There could be some fog formation over the interior and west coast
metro areas late tonight which could lower the vis down into MVFR
conditions between 09Z and 14Z. Therefore, this lower vis has been
put into the taf site of KAPF for late tonight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017/

Short Term (Tonight-Saturday)...low pressure circulation can be
observed on satellite, centered over the eastern Gulf waters,
producing a large swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms
across South Florida. Expect widespread showers with occasional
thunder to continue through the evening hours, but with the bulk
of the rain concentrating over the Atlantic coast metro areas.
Isolated downpours could generate between 1-2 inches, but
accumulations in general should remain around half an inch. Best
chances for thunderstorms remain over the Atlantic coastal waters

Latest model solutions show the aforementioned low and associated
trough aloft gradually moving across the Florida peninsula and
eventually into the Atlantic waters through Thursday. Satellite
and radar data show a swath of abundant moisture wrapping around
the low, along with a rather weak sfc frontal boundary moving
across the region.

As the low/trough complex moves further away from the area, the
current isentropic lifting event will end and high pressure
quickly begins building in its wake. Drier and slightly cooler
air advection will descend upon the region with morning lows on
Thursday some 5 to 8 degrees cooler than previous days. But the
cooler temps will be short-lived as a warming trend begins
Thursday night. Afternoon highs on Friday climb back into the
lower 80s, and mid 80s by Saturday with prevailing dry and
pleasant conditons.

Long Term (Saturday night-Wednesday) general, expect dry and
benign weather to continue on Sunday as a weak front moves across
the area. Easterly flow returns Monday as surface high settles
into the region, which may allow for some moisture and isolated
coastal showers to begin to affect the Atlantic coast by the
middle of next week.

MARINE...winds remain in the Small Craft Exercise Caution range
tonight over the Atlantic waters, along with continuing showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Seas are forecast to build slightly
for portion of the week, currently to around 4 to 6 feet in the
Gulf stream. Early next week, a weak front moves through the
region building seas once again close to 6 feet, then subside
quickly into Monday.

BEACH FORECAST...the risk of rip currents will remain moderate
tonight along east coast beaches, especially for Miami Beach.
The threat of rip currents is expected to diminish quickly
later on Thursday behind a weak frontal passage.

Low pressure system continues to impact the region with bands of
showers with embedded heavier rain and a few rumbles of thunder.
Periods of MVFR and intermittent IFR flying conditions will
continue, with the best chance for IFR through 20z. Rain should
continue to impact the east coast sites through early evening,
before becoming more VCSH in nature. KAPF should remain largely
dry but have continued to carry VCSH into the evening hours.
Precip chances should end across the region by around 06z with a
general clearing trend. Sea fog will be possible late overnight at
KAPF. Winds will primarily be out of the southeast at 10-20
knots, occasionally southwest at times, before becoming light and
variable tonight as the low moves across the region. Late in the
period, winds will increase out of the southwest at 5-10 knots.

West Palm Beach  61  78  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  62  80  65  82 /  20  10  10  10
Miami            63  80  65  83 /  20  10  10   0
Naples           60  75  64  80 /  10  10   0   0



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