Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230843
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  30  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



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