Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1244 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

A Bermuda high remains in control, keeping the wind out of the
east to southeast through the period. This keeps the potential for
an isolated shower, especially at night along the Atlantic coast.
However, chances are too low for a mention in the TAFs. A Gulf
breeze is forecast for KAPF tomorrow. This may allow some shower
develop near KAPF tomorrow, but again, uncertainty is too high to
place in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/

Few showers associated with Gulf breeze will impact metro Naples
this evening, and a few showers/Bahamanian streamers could impact
Miami-Dade County. Have adjusted POPs upward in these regions.
Otherwise, generally dry night aside from a few Atlantic showers
impacting the east coast mainly after midnight. Temperatures will
fall through the 70s (and eventually 60s in the interior). Updated
hourly weather grids to reflect current/near-term
observations/guidance; no other changes to the forecast this

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018/


SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)
Persistent deep-layer ridge that has dominated South Florida for
the past week continues in control today. Breezy east wind with
very warm temperatures and only a rogue shower or two are
occurring this afternoon. Conditions will change little this
weekend, with maxima into early next week in the 80s with minima
in the low 70s east coast urban areas, 60s elsewhere. These
temperatures are well above normal and see climate section below
on records.

For the start of next work-week, the ridge will weaken and shift
southwestward, allowing for the peninsula to be more affected by
mid-latitude westerlies. First way this will be apparent is by
weak cold front shifting into northern Florida Monday. Across
South Florida, weaker wind flow will allow for more distinct sea-
breeze development Monday, and scattered showers may develop
along the boundaries and where they collide over the interior
during the afternoon. Otherwise, only expect the occasional
Atlantic shower spreading inland through the short term.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)
Aforementioned front will settle over Central Florida or perhaps
near Lake Okeechobee Tuesday. Moisture pooling in the warm sector
could lead to isolated to scattered showers across the region,
before drier air moves in Tuesday night and continues through the
remainder of the week. Another front, a bit stronger, is poised to
move through the region on Friday, although latest guidance
reveals discrepancies between the global models in its passage.
GFS depicts southern stream shortwave trough associated with the
front phasing with northern stream energy/shortwave trough to
induce stronger frontogenesis and thus faster, cooler passage
early Friday. ECWMF on the other hand has the troughs remaining
distinct, forecasting instead a weaker FROPA perhaps not until
Saturday. Regardless, both models suggest dry passage with
temperatures generally only returning to near normal. Ahead of the
front, warm conditions will prevail with highs in the 80s and low
in the 60s to low 70s.

High pressure moves further overhead while weakening through the
early part of next week. This will lead to lessening easterly wind
flow and calmer seas. Aside from a few showers over the Atlantic,
generally dry conditions are expected. Overall easterly flow will
gradually switch southerly by mid-week, with speeds remaining
below 15 KT through the period.

High risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches has been downgraded
to a moderate risk for overnight. Wind is beginning to diminsh
and should be fairly light for Sunday and through early week.
Still, residual conditions will likely warrant a moderate risk of
rip currents Sunday and possibly into Monday.

Naples broke or tied their record high for the fourth consecutive
day., reaching 88 this afternoon. The old record was 87 degrees,
set in 1997. West Palm Beach is on pace to tie their daily record
warm minimum of 73, also from 1997. Additional records,
especially high minima, are possible over the next couple of days
as temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees above average for the end
of February.

West Palm Beach  84  71  85  68 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  83  73  83  71 /  10  20  10  10
Miami            84  72  84  70 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           84  68  84  68 /  10  10  10  10



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