Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY..BRINGING DROPS IN CIGS/VISBYS TO MVFR...THEN
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A RETURN OF MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65 LATE TONIGHT AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE
REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. /13

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND FOR LOWS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS.

THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PLAINS.
THIS WILL WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASING FURTHER. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE ABUNDANT ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETS THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FIELDS...WHICH
BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE THREAT FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A STRONG VORT MAX THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS MO/IL IN THE FORM OF A 994 MB SFC LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS FOCUSES ON AN OCCLUDED LOW NEAR THE CORNER OF
SD/NE/IA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE THREAT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THINGS BECOME EVEN
MURKIER BY TUE-WED AS THE GFS THEN QUICKLY PUSHES THE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT FRONT EAST...WITH A ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE FLOODING RISK OVER THE
AREA GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
SINCE MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF (ESPECIALLY WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A SECONDARY SFC LOW MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT DEVIATE
TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TUE-WED AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY BASED OFF THE 12Z ECMWF.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION/SCOPE OF THE
UPCOMING EVENT. AT THIS POINT...EVERYBODY SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THE
FACT THAT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILS AS WE DRAW CLOSER IN TIME.
34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REDEVELOPS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  81  60  83  63 /  05  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   65  80  63  80  64 /  05  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      64  76  64  77  65 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   60  83  55  87  59 /  10  10  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  62  82  54  86  62 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      61  82  54  86  59 /  10  10  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   61  84  55  87  57 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












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