Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 270500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...
VFR conditions except for some patchy fog expected in the morning
hours before sunrise. After which we could see gusty winds as early
as mid- morning lasting through the afternoon. Winds will be
primarily from the south to southeast through the rest of the
forecast period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 939 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...No significant changes made to the current forecast...just
a few minor tweaks to account for current hourly trends. Upper level
ridge over the region will keep convection west but we should see increasing
mid and high level cloud cover spilling into the forecast area
tonight which will provide for warmer overnight lows than we`ve
experience lately. Forecast appears on track with forecasted lows
bottoming out in the low 70s along coastal areas and mid to upper
60s at more interior locations. Cloud cover should also inhibit
overnight fog development so will continue with only patchy fog
wording for locations generally inland from the coast./08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...Generally VFR conditions expected except more inland
sites could see fog develop overnight creating IFR to MVFR
conditions but it`ll burn off quickly in the morning. Kept TAF sites
VFR but can`t completely rule out some intermittent fog creating MVFR
conditions around sunrise. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Very little change in the
overall pattern through Friday as an upper level ridge axis remains
across the area. This will maintain the hot and dry conditions with
occasional bouts of mid and high clouds spilling over the ridge.
Scattered CU will develop during the peak afternoon heating hours.
While a very isolated shower/storm is possible during the afternoon
hours, the chances are less than 10% and not enough to include in
the forecast. Lows continue to trend upward as humidity levels
increase with mid and upper 60s expected tonight. Coastal areas will
likely bottom out in the low 70s. Highs on Friday will warm into the
upper 80s with low to mid 80s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A surface ridge
extending westward across the southeast states from the surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic will shift northward and
eventually erode as surface low pressure area moves northward from
the Bahamas. An upper level trough over the central plains will lift
northeast over the Great Lakes over the weekend, with the upper
energy passing just off to the northwest. As a result...maintained
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Saturday
and Sunday afternoons across our inland zones northwest of I-65.
Dry weather conditions will persist elsewhere. Patchy fog development
is also possible late each night.

Low temperatures over the Memorial Day weekend will range from 65 to
70 degrees inland areas...with lower 70s along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Saturday will range from 84 to 89
degrees. High temperatures Sunday will range from 87 to 92 degrees
inland areas...with mid 80s along the immediate coastal sections.

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The Great Lakes upper trough
Monday morning will move eastward followed by a larger upper trough
digging south from the northern plains to New England. Meanwhile the
surface low will continue to meander off the southeast coast through
midweek. As a result, isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours through the
long term as the environment becomes more conducive for convection. A
gradual warming trend will occur through the period with inland highs
ranging from 90 to 95 degrees Monday through Wednesday...with upper
80s along the coast. Lows will range from 68 to 73 degrees with mid
70s at the beaches. /22

MARINE...High pressure will continue to extend from the western
Atlantic into the southeast through the weekend...and will maintain
a generally light wind flow. Little change in seas expected through
the period. /13


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