Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 252129
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
429 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Remnant mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) from earlier convection is moving across south central
MS this afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers and storms
firing over much of interior southwest and south central AL east of
this feature and also along axis of deep layer moisture under an
upper level trough stretching westward across the area. The upper
trough axis will remain in place across our area tonight, along with
associated precipitable water values between 2.0" and 2.25". Showers
and storms should become more scattered in coverage into this
evening, and will maintain 30-40% POPs across the entire area
through 06Z. The axis of deeper moisture gradually sinks farther
south toward the coast and adjacent offshore waters tonight, where
additional scattered development may occur during the overnight and
early morning hours. Coverage should be much more limited farther
inland. The upper level trough axis shifts eastward a bit toward
southern GA and northern FL Wednesday, as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds eastward from the southern Plains to the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region. A bit more subsidence and
slightly drier airmass will spread over our region Wednesday, but
with precipitable water values still lingering between 1.7 and 2.0",
will maintain a low chance of showers and storms (mostly in the 20-
30% chance) range over the area Wednesday with POPs most favored
over eastern areas and closer to the coast. Temperatures should
trend warmer Wednesday, with highs forecast to reach into the lower
to mid 90s inland, and around 90 near the immediate coast and
beaches. Dewpoints in the 70s will result in maximum heat indices
between 100-105 degrees. /21

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Wednesday
night into Thursday night, the upper trough that has been
persisting over the forecast area the last few days moves off to
the east. An upper ridge centered just east of the Rockies builds
a ridge east from over the Southern Plains to the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. With this, a combination of a drier
airmass being pushed over the forecast area from the west along
with increased subsidence from the upper ridge dries out the area
as it brings temps well above seasonal. One last day of around
seasonal chance of rain occurs Thursday as the drier air begins to
push in, but with the increasing subsidence, temps well above
seasonal expected. a slight chance to chance of rain is expected
with lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 70s. Highs Thursday
in the mid to upper 90s are expected and with the driest air not
moving over the forecast area until late Thursday into Thursday
night, dewpoint values will be high enough to bring Heat Indices
generally rising into the 102 to 107 degree range.

The rest of Thursday night through Friday night...A shortwave
moves into the upper trough that has set up over the East Coast.
Even with a decrease in moisture levels, guidance is advertising
enough vigor to bring a chance of shra/tsra to the area late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Lows Thursday and Friday night
remain around seasonal (low to mid 70s). Highs Friday are also
expected to be above seasonal (mid 90s), with subsidence form the
upper ridge combined with decent heating before the tsra fire.

/16

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...A front associated with
the shortwave energy moving into the East Coast trough pushes
across the forecast area late Saturday through Saturday night. The
GFS is advertising a stronger push with the front then the ECMWF,
pushing in a drier airmass behind. Both are consistent in timing
though, along with a chance of rain Saturday into Saturday night.
After, the GFS dries the area out for the rest of the extended.
The ECMWF is painting a more difficult to forecast picture. With
the less enthusiastic push behind the front, the front stalls just
south of the coast Sunday. More energy moving into the East Coast
trough develops a weak surface circulation over the north-central
Gulf Monday. With southerly flow east of the MS/AL state line and
northerly flow west, a PoP gradient over the western half of the
forecast area results for late Sunday night into Monday night. As
the surface low dissolves, a surface ridge builds back west over
the northern Gulf into Wednesday results, bringing back Gulf
moisture to the area.

Fore the forecast, have consensus went with a toned-down ECMWF
solution. This results in highs around seasonal (around 90 to low
90s), with overnight lows in the low 70s, a bit high close to the
coast. PoPs a bit below seasonal (lower to the west of the AL/MS
state line with the drier air) with the East Coast trough shifting
west a bit (putting the forecast area in a less favorable position
for precip).

/16

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high pressure will gradually build
westward across the Gulf of Mexico through the week with light to
occasionally moderate west to northwest flow generally prevalent at
night and in the morning, and light to moderate west to southwest
flow during the afternoon and evening. The best coverage of marine
storms will mostly occur at night and during the morning, with
locally higher winds and seas and frequent lightning. Isolated
morning water spouts also remain possible. A slight increase in seas
is expected late in the period. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  94  78  94 /  30  40  20  40
Pensacola   76  90  79  93 /  30  40  40  40
Destin      77  91  80  90 /  30  50  30  40
Evergreen   72  92  76  95 /  30  30  10  40
Waynesboro  72  94  76  96 /  30  30  10  20
Camden      73  92  77  95 /  30  30  10  30
Crestview   73  94  76  93 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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