Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 020448
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015


.AVIATION...
02.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
BAY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHERLY AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROF MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WAS
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS AT THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AXIS. IN ADDITION TO HIGH LEVEL ENERGY FORCING ASCENT...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH 02.00Z
RAOB DATA INDICATES DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WRAPPING IN AT THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWER TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHILE TO THE EAST...HIGHER
VALUES WERE NOTED RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM ALABAMA AND
POINTS EAST. MOVING INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES...RADAR DATA INDICATES ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
AND WITH THESE TRENDS...HAVE MADE A LOWER ADJUSTMENT TO RAIN
COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE MOISTURE TRANSITION ZONE AND GIVEN ANY SUBTLE IMPULSES
ALOFT PASSING THROUGH AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF...
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. MID/UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ON TUESDAY DUE TO LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH MID AND UPPER
80S IN MOST AREAS. /13

[TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 2 TO 3 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.2
ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.

ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65...WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST PAST MIDNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ENVIRONMENT AGAIN BECOMES UNSTABLE. ONLY THIS TIME MAINLY BE
CONFINED ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST ALONG A SEABREEZE MOVING
NORTHWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
AREAS...RANGING FROM 88 TO 92 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM 83 TO 87 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND
AREAS WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EASTERN UPPER LOW GETS AN
EASTWARD SHOVE FROM AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
EASTERN SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING A WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS RISE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE COAST OR OVER EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN SYSTEM JOINS WITH MORE
UPPER ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO FORM AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND STARTS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WORKING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN...TO AROUND SEASONAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A MUCH SLOWER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
THE RESULT IS A WETTER SCENARIO IN THE GFS AS THE UPPER ENERGY
PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE FA. THE RESULTANT TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...SO HAVE JUST SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE. FOR POPS...THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER. WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN...WITH
NEAR SEASONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THE RESULT.

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY...WITH THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  66  86  67  89 /  60  20  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   85  69  85  71  87 /  60  20  30  40  30
DESTIN      85  73  82  73  86 /  50  20  40  30  20
EVERGREEN   85  66  88  65  90 /  70  20  30  30  05
WAYNESBORO  84  64  87  63  90 /  60  20  20  05  05
CAMDEN      84  65  87  65  89 /  70  20  20  20  05
CRESTVIEW   87  67  89  66  91 /  60  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.