Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 132205
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER TX AND THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LEADING TO MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUN INTO MON LEADING TO INCREASING
MID TO UPPER CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUN AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 1-10 CORRIDOR WILL
EXPERIENCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET/ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT
AND THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 30S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
THE COAST. 32/EE

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A BROAD MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MONDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
OUR REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS VARY ON THE AVAILABILITY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE AGAIN
MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS SEEM A GOOD BET
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 35-45 KNOTS.
AS MENTIONED...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN A LIMITING SEVERE
WEATHER FACTOR GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING 500 J/KG OR
BELOW...AND THE NAM SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH ITS HIGHER VALUES. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO STEEPEN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD TREND TOWARD A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
STILL LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL/LIMITED ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AT THIS
POINT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...BUT IS SOMETHING WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. /21

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING GENERALLY WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE COAST...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SEND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUNDAY...SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
MOSTLY SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE MON NIGHT LEADING TO
A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST LATE TUE AND EARLY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT WED THROUGH EARLY THU.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      31  60  49  69 /   0   0  20  80
PENSACOLA   36  60  50  68 /   0   0  10  80
DESTIN      39  57  51  67 /   0   0  10  80
EVERGREEN   26  59  42  67 /   0   0  20  80
WAYNESBORO  26  60  45  67 /   0  10  30  80
CAMDEN      26  59  43  65 /   0   0  20  80
CRESTVIEW   28  60  42  70 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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