Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 281739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A DEEP DRY LAYER PREVAILS IN AN
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE SKY WILL BE FREE OF CLOUDS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH COOL SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 OVER
OUR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT TODAY AND STAY AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES FURTHER EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
DEEP DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S IN
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LOWER 40S ALONG BEACHES. 77/BD

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SEMI-ZONAL MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL WARM TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEND A POLAR FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE MIDSOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
AT THE DOORSTEP OF OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL)
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BRIEFLY PUSH INTO AREAS LIKE
BUTLER AND WAYNESBORO...BUT THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT
ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
28.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES OF LESS THAN VFR ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLE SMALL AREAS OF MIST IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MARSHES
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. 77/BD

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE FLATTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD RESULT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER BAYS...
SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING IN THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REGIME WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
INTO MID MORNING TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST
THEN EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND OPENING A WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE MARINE
FOG NEAR SHORE SUNDAY. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  44  68  54  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   58  49  67  55  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
DESTIN      56  47  65  55  70 /  00  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   56  33  68  46  72 /  00  05  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  58  35  69  51  73 /  00  05  00  00  05
CAMDEN      55  34  67  47  71 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   58  32  68  45  73 /  00  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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