Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 311156
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION 1200Z ISSUANCE...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING...SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR. BIGGEST IMPACT
ON FLYING WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATE
INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON CREATING TEMPO IFR
VSBYS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT SITES RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL. /08 JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MODERATE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON
AREA WEATHER. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY
TOMORROW AS LAYER PWATS GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.6 INCH
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE...CAN BE SEEN AS
AN IPV ANOMALY IN THE GFS 500 TO 300 MB LYR AND ON WV IMAGERY OVER
WEST TN COUPLING WITH LOW LVL INSTABILITY...TRIGGERING CONVECTION.
ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT ENOUGH FORCING
EVIDENT IN CONVERGENT-Q FIELDS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IF INSTABILITY
WERE AVAILABLE BUT CURRENT TIMING PUSHES FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...KEEPING WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS
CAPPED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP GROWTH IN THE MID-
LEVELS. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I65.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY
STATIC. THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...WITH NO ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
(CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS) AND INTO THE
TROUGH. THIS LEAVES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED SW-NE OVER THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH DRIER...COOLER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DRAMATICALLY
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BUT REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. THIS MEANS LITTLE CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA...LIKELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE A
BALANCE BETWEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEING OFFSET BY A WIDER DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE WITH THE FRIER AIR. IN THIS CASE...NOT QUITE AS HOT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THESE AREAS. ALONG AND SOUTH...THE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE ON THE TIGHTER
SIDE...IN THIS CASE AROUND SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN
ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS STARTS TO SHOW...WITH ENERGY
TOPPING THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE...FLATTENING IT A BIT AND THE EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH FILLING A BIT. THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH PROVES TO SHOW THE GREATEST AFFECT ON THE FORECAST...WITH ITS
WEAKENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF
OF MEX TO BUILD AND BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE FA. THE
RESULT IS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA
BECOMING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
BE OVER THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA. TEMPS START TO WARM UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE...MAINLY
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT TOPPED THE WESTERN
RIDGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A LESS DEEP
TROUGH AS THE ENERGY MOVES EAST...WHILST THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION....WITH A BIT COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION IN THE
NUMBERS. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN
THE MIDDLE...HAVE WENT THAT DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL...AND POPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS GETS SQUEEZED BACK EAST...TO OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED...AND
TEMPS/POPS RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF.

AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...ASIDE FROM VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...NO FLYING WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FCST
CYCLE. /08 JW

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND THEN VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  72  93  70  95 /  50  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   92  75  92  75  93 /  40  30  50  20  50
DESTIN      91  77  92  76  91 /  40  40  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   96  72  94  68  95 /  40  10  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  96  67  95  66  96 /  10  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      96  69  95  67  96 /  05  10  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   94  74  93  69  95 /  50  30  50  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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