Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KPAH 120524

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Issued at 830 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Will stick with the SPS approach for the overnight. We thought
about a Winter Weather Advisory for a portion of the area given
the late night, early a.m. timing. But this event will be really
no different than the last, which was also handled with a SPS
(message consistency). Would like to see at least a few more
spots with 2" potential before a WSW. Overall, per the hi-res
data anyway, the axis seems farther south, somewhere from NW of
KCGI to just north of KPAH to KHOP, and about 50-60 miles either
side of that line. Lesser amounts expected per the latest data up
across the KEVV tri-state area, though some minor accumulations
still possible there. Seems like areas from KPOF to KUCY will see
little to nothing. Will update the gridded and public forecast
products to account for a southward shift and update some of our
web/social media graphics.



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

The primary forecast challenge is the placement of the axis of max
qpf tonight, with the incoming snow band. The model trend is a
shift of the primary axis to the south and west. However, the
models still vary greatly, and many paint two swaths, one north of
the other. It is too uncertain to pinpoint, but fortunately, with
qpf amounts generally less than .05", we are talking about less
than an inch for most even with robust LSR (avg 16 to 1).
Probably around a half inch or so in the heaviest swath with
lesser amounts to one quarter inch elsewhere. In other words, very
similar to the previous night in the PAH vicinity, but this time,
a little further north and east.

Model timing confidence is good with pcpn onset after 06Z, best
accumulating period 09z-13/14z, tapering off/ending by 16-17z. We
have issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the northeast
half of the region or so, for potential morning commute issues for
untreated road or walk surfaces. Once the event is ongoing after
midnight tonight, a better read on model qpf and location can be
determined for any particular counties that might need a higher
impact statement (Advisory).

This system`s passage will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air
that will last/really kick in as we head into the weekend...with
Saturday highs largely in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

The largest discrepancy among the models would be the available
moisture. The 00z thu ecmwf still seems to be the outlier with the
most precipitation. The GFS...Canadian and NAM are in a little
better agreement. Also the extended init cut back snow/qpf a
little more than yesterday. Now it`s yielding from around an inch
in the southern Ozarks up to two and half for the Evansville tri-
state area. Otherwise the timing is in fairly good agreement. The
forecast sounding shows the best available moisture may be a
little earlier than what the pops would indicate. The sounding
shows the best moisture Sunday afternoon and evening...while the
pops are higher overnight Sunday. Bufkit would even suggest a dry
period between 6z and 12z Monday. Bufkit and forecast soundings
also indicate changing over to all rain after 12z Monday
especially south may be a mixture along the Interstate 64 corridor
at least in the morning. There may be a lingering chance of snow
Monday night east of the Mississippi River. There is a ripple in
the strong northwest flow aloft Wednesday that the models are
starting to pick up on but should be a light event and most areas
will be well above freezing at that time.

Now for the good news...after a frigid weekend we will begin a
warming trend. Temperatures should be getting back to near normal
starting Tuesday and possibly above normal by the end of the week.
That would place highs around 50 and lows around 30 for most
areas. A little cooler along the I-64 corridor.


Issued at 1123 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Little change from the 03z Friday update to the 00z Friday WFO PAH
TAF issuance. Given the narrowness of the band of snow expected
within the first six hours, kept visibilities in VFR category, but
transitioned toward MVFR ceilings along the edges of the
precipitation bands.

Clearing may occur faster across the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB TAF sites
Friday afternoon, but the departure of the clouds may also be
prolonged through the end of the period at these locations.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.