Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 041355
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES...

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ABOUT 60
MILES WEST OF CLEARWATER. MOVEMENT WAS EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST IN
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAKE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
SATURATED GROUND AND STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA COULD EXACERBATE
FLOODING.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER SATURATED WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING
PCPW 1.93 INCHES. THIS STILL SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY LATE TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE IN FLOOD DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAJOR RIVER
FLOODING BEING OBSERVED ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER. IN GENERAL...SLIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON MOST RIVERS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
RECEDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



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