Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271849
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
249 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Thursday Night)...Upper ridging
continues to build over the region from the Western Atlantic with
limited moisture to keep this afternoons precip delayed and only
in the isolated to scattered range into this evening. Small but
very dry slot aloft to move from the Bahamas this evening to over
FL tomorrow to significantly suppress convective activity to mainly
20% areawide, except about 30% in SW FL. With sunny conditions and
easterly low level flow expect above normal daytime temps and heat
index values well above 100 degrees but should hold below advisory
criteria.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Friday)...In the upper levels, a closed
low resides over Quebec with troughing extending southwest over the
Great Lakes region and along the Mississippi River Valley. Closer to
home here in Florida, broad upper level ridging continues to extend
from near Bermuda west southwest over the southeast U.S. and into
the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will continue until
Saturday when an easterly wave moves over the Bahamas toward the
Florida peninsula. The wave moves west of Florida by Monday and
Atlantic ridging builds back in from the east through the end of
next week. On the surface, high pressure centered northeast of the
Bahamas ridges west over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This will
keep a predominant east southeast wind flow and daily afternoon sea
breeze thunderstorms. Models are in agreement for the beginning of
next week until Wednesday. At that time, GFS is depicting a closed
low moving toward Florida and then curving north along the eastern
seaboard, while ECMWF is keeping this feature as an open wave. This
is still at the end of the long range period, but either way, we
will keep a close eye on this feature over the coming week.
Temperatures will continue to run above climatic normals through the
period with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day and
overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue this afternoon with isolated to scattered
convection developing after 20Z with brief restriction in/nr TSRA
until 01Z. VFR conditions all areas overnight and Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure over the region to keep gradient weak the rest
of the week and weekend for light winds and slight seas. Main
concern will again be late afternoon or early evening showers and
storms where conditions may be locally rough in the vicinity of
any thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak high pressure will remain over the region with above normal
temperatures and only 20-30 % rain chances Thursday while RHs
will be lower than summertime normals but still above critical
values. Moisture to return into the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  94  79  92 /  30  10  10  30
FMY  76  94  77  93 /  20  30  30  40
GIF  76  96  77  95 /  30  10  10  40
SRQ  77  92  78  91 /  30  10  20  30
BKV  74  95  74  94 /  30  10  10  30
SPG  79  94  80  92 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn


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