National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KTBW 240834
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
434 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SETUP NORTH OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS
FLORIDA...GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 1.25 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...PREVENTING EXTENSIVE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA WITH RATHER
LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST TO NEAR 90 OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR BOTH
DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW DEVELOPING LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING TO
THE THREAT OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
20 POPS FOR EACH DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 3000-5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SEA BREEZE STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY AROUND
1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  82  68 /   0  10  10   0
FMY  87  66  87  66 /   0  10  10   0
GIF  87  67  87  65 /  20  20  10   0
SRQ  80  63  82  64 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  86  58  85  60 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  82  68  82  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE