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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200753
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...CLOUDY START TO EASTER SUNDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS PROVIDING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH MID 70S IN LEVY COUNTY
RANGING TO MID 80S IN INLAND SW FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN SW FLORIDA EARLIER THAN AREAS TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD...PROVIDING SOME HEATING TODAY. GUIDANCE WAS SPREAD
MINIMALLY...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS MAV...00Z ECMWF AND
00Z NAM MET MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH
WHICH IS SEASONABLE. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ONCE THIS MORNING/S
SPRINKLES DISSIPATE.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY - TUESDAY)...
A SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL PUSH A WEAKENING BACK-DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MAINTAINS DRY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO SOME 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES UNDER A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL STRADDLE VFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT TPA/PIE/LAL. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND
THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE WATERS
TODAY. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
RETURNING MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES COULD CREATE SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG CONCERNS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  62  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  63  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  79  61  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  61  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  78  55  81  54 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  77  65  79  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL