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000
FXUS62 KTBW 062002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO METEOROLOGICAL
RETURNS AT THIS TIME. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.

THE STRONG UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AREAS
OF FOG IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INLAND FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOWING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LINGERING IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BISECT THE PENINSULA KEEPING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STARTING
TO LINE UP A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER
THE REGION IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF IS A FEW
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS THE SAME.
DEEP RIDGING OFF THE SURFACE WILL HELP LIMIT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
SOUTH. EXPECT A SLIGHT RELIEF IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR INTO THE EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE A GUSTY SW FLOW.
WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW CIG/VSBYS
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEA FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  83  66  83 /   0  10  10  10
FMY  65  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  10
GIF  65  84  65  83 /  10   0  10  10
SRQ  65  82  65  83 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  59  84  57  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  68  82  67  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
AVIATION...GARCIA
LONG TERM...BARRON