Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 281842
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
242 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)...
Pleasant dry and warm weather will continue across the entire
forecast area during the short term period. Surface high pressure
building down the eastern seaboard combined with a broad area of
low pressure over the western Caribbean and southeastern Gulf
will maintain a breezy persistent northeast to east wind flow
across the region. Shallow Atlantic moisture advecting into the
region combined with upper level moisture streaming in from Gulf
associated with the low to the south will continue to result in
partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies through the period with
no measurable rainfall expected.
Temperatures will remain some 3 to 6 degrees above normal for this
time of the year with lows tonight falling into the lower 60s
across the Nature Coast, and mid to upper 60s central and south,
with highs on Saturday again climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)...
Models in good agreement with warm FL fall conditions continuing.
Upper trough moves north of the region to end the weekend then
upper ridge over the Gulf builds eastward over the region early
through mid week.
At the surface, several high pressure areas will remain stretched
from the Western Atlantic into the Deep South to keep easterly low
level flow in place with generally dry and warm sensible weather
Models indicating pattern change late in the period with upper low
dropping into the SE U.S. pushing surface cold front into the
area at the end of the work week.
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24 hours.
Northeast to east winds in the 12 to 15 knot range with gusts up
to 25 knots this afternoon will diminish to 8 to 10 knots after
02Z tonight, then increasing and becoming gusty again after 15Z on
Saturday as the gradient remains tight over the area.
Surface high pressure building down the eastern seaboard combined
with a broad area of low pressure across the southern Gulf and
western Caribbean will maintain breezy northeast to east winds and
elevated seas over the Gulf waters through much of the upcoming
weekend with cautionary and small craft headlines continuing.
During early next week high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will get reinforced by a stronger high building down the eastern
seaboard which will keep the gradient tight across the region with
cautionary or small craft conditions likely to continue across the
Elevated 20 foot winds and transport winds combined with mixing
heights in the 3-4KFT range will continue to support high
dispersion indices across the forecast area into the upcoming
weekend, otherwise no other fire weather issues are expected at
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 68 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 70 85 71 86 / 10 10 0 10
GIF 67 84 68 86 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 70 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 65 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 70 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis