Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 050201 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
901 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUIET EVENING SO FAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION. SEA FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AND HAS SPREAD ASHORE IN THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS THE FOG IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE NATURE
COAST TONIGHT. FORECAST CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...THOUGH
THE LATEST LOCAL VISIBILITY GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF THE EXTENT OF
THE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS WHICH BRINGS IT
INTO CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY INLAND WHERE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. DENSE SEA FOG IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND AFFECT THE COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PREDICT
ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF KEEPING FOG
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOME OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST...INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND BAY WATERS MAY NOT BE AFFECTED BY SEA FOG
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  80  66  77 /   0  10  20  30
FMY  66  85  66  83 /   0   0  10  30
GIF  66  85  64  78 /   0  10  10  30
SRQ  65  78  64  78 /   0  10  10  20
BKV  60  82  60  75 /   0  10  30  30
SPG  68  80  66  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
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