Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 108.2W AT 20/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 145 NM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 NM S-
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N86W 10N95W 12N103W
13N125W TO 12N131W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 6N TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
12N BETWEEN 91W-97W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 118W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W ANCHORED
WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR
AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW



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