Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
931 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N115W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the axis between 120W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northwest winds over the Gulf of California near
Los Cabos, between low pressure over central Mexico and high
pressure west of Baja California Norte, have likely diminished to
20 kt or less as the pressure gradient weakens. An earlier
altimeter pass indicated seas may be reaching 8 ft between Los
Cabos, Cabo Corrientes, and Socorro Island leftover from the
earlier fresh to strong winds. These seas will subside later this
morning as the winds continue to diminish. The high pressure
will shift eastward through early in the week, allowing winds to
diminish further to light to gentle breezes. A weakening cold
front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern
Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a
brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt westerly gap
winds to the northern Gulf of California early Tuesday. Looking
further ahead, northwest winds will strengthen starting mid week
as strong high pressure builds north of the area.

Farther south, fresh winds are likely pulsing through the Gulf
of Tehuantepec early this morning then diminish through late
morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through the
southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, allowing strong gap winds
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, possibly reaching gale force by
Thursday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters
of the eastern Tropical Pacific extending northeast into the
western Caribbean. This is producing light to gentle breezes
across the region. Strengthening trade winds across the
southwest Caribbean will support fresh to strong gap winds into
the Gulf of Papagayo starting late Sunday night into early
Monday, with nocturnal pulsing of the winds expected through the
upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap
winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes
will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front reaches from 30N130W to 23N140W. Winds were stronger
earlier ahead of this front, but have since diminished as the
main dynamic support aloft for the front as lifting to the
northeast. Long period northwest swell follows the front with a
recent altimeter pass indicating wave heights to 9 ft. A few
showers are likely near the front. The front will continue to
move eastward through early in the week, reaching from off Baja
California Norte to 25N125W by late Monday. The swell will decay
below 8 ft by tonight. Seas will build to 6 to 8 ft farther
south from 10N to 15N west of 130W, the result of a mix of the
effect of moderate trade winds and a component of the longer
period northwest swell through early Monday.

A persistent surface trough is analyzed from 04N114W to 09N110W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side
of this trough. The trough will continue west reaching near 120W
by late Monday before dampening out.

Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build north of the area
through mid week, allowing northeast 15 to 20 kt winds across
the entire region west of 120W with seas building 8 to 9 ft
mainly in a mix of northeast wind waves and northwest swell.

$$

CHRISTENSEN


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