Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 260618
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
218 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
Drier air will gradually spread into the area overnight and lead to
a rain free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through
the week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...The cold front will drift farther south and
is now off the Cape Fear coast and through GGE. Drier mid-level air
per water vapor imagery is poised across the Mid-Atlantic region and
will slowly push across the Carolinas. In the meantime, could see
isolated to widely scattered showers into the early morning hours.
The more robust convection is offshore and will remain offshore
through the remainder of the period. Could see fog in a few places
but better chances with some stratus developing or spreading in
overnight with low-level E-NE flow. Other than to hold onto slight
chance POPs a little longer, no major changes are needed to the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.
LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest