Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 250523
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE
DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-
IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW
SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND
THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE
SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY
MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
VEERING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE
DAY IF NOT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD





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