Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 271405
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers later today,
followed by drier and slightly cooler air through mid week.
Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into
the weekend with a few thunderstorms in the mix.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Tuesday...A very weak surface pressure pattern resides
over the area this morning with a fairly potent vort max expected to
move through the area this afternoon into early evening.  There is
limited moisture with which to work and surface convergence is
lacking attm so we are not expecting much in the way of coverage of
showers and storms. Overall, going forecast was in good shape but
did make a few tweaks to reflect a relative lack of clouds
presently. Temperature forecast with middle to upper 80s today and
lower to middle 60s tonight still looks good as do 20 pops and
partly cloudy skies later this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Unseasonably dry and cool conditions will
draw few complaints as the muggy feel remains absent from the
sensible weather regime, as continental high pressure born from
the upper US plains sinks SE into the Carolina skies. This short
lived visit however will give way to in the inevitable return
of summer as the surface high center slips offshore by Wednesday
night. As a result, Thursday maximums will reach near normal
values for late June, with dewpoints climbing back well into the
60s after the brief dry dip into the 50s Wednesday. The
moisture profiles suggest diurnal cumulus is likely each day,
but very dry air above 8000 feet will be unsupportive of any
mentionable precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the
return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high
pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the
period. Lows will increase into the lower 70s for remainder of
the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 010...VFR this TAF cycle as clouds remain at 5 KFT or
higher. A disturbance aloft will bring isolated -SHRA between
19Z and 00Z later today, but TSTMS will be few to none as
moisture is limited. Overnight SKC-SCT100 with N-NE winds 5 KT
or less. With falling dewpoints, mist and fog not expected to
cause VSBY restrictions.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Tuesday...Expect light N winds to become E to SE this
afternoon, then south tonight before becoming northerly again as a
surface trough moves off the coast.  Speeds look to remain 10 KT or
less through tonight though 15 kt is possible closer to the coast
this afternoon due to the sea breeze.  seas of 2 feet or less are
expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Veering 10-15 KT winds start NE then E
then SE late Wednesday as the center of high pressure over land
slips offshore. With dry air aloft showers or TSTMS are not
expected. By daybreak Thursday the high center will migrate to
a position between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. This will
prompt an E-SE flow Thursday and thursday night, with seas 2-3
feet and winds 15 KT or less. A few outer water showers are
possible late Thursday but not of hazardous consequence. Seas SE
in direction with mixed periods of 9 and 6 seconds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...S to SW WINDS by Friday and prevailing
through Saturday, speeds could top out around 15 kt Saturday.
Seas around 2 feet are expected most of the period with a few 3
footers possible Saturday as winds increase slightly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...8



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