Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
867 FXUS62 KILM 160001 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 801 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .UPDATE... Tweaked POPS for the remainder of this evening, with convection dissipating. However, expect the nocturnal Atlantic machine to rev up and as a result looking for periodic onshore movement of mainly low topped scattered tropical showers during the predawn hrs and continuing thru mid to late daytime Wed morning. PWs remain 2.00 to 2.25 inches, ie tropical in nature. The coastal counties will feel the brunt of this. Look for the addition of thunder as the days insolation increases and resulting instability. Lows generally in the mid 70s with upper 70s to around 80 along the immediate coast given onshore flow having gone across Atlantic SSTs in the 80s. Winds over the waters to run SSE-SSW 10 to occasionally 15 kt. Wind directions the result of the sfc ridge axis extending from the Bermuda high to extend WSW to the SE States Coast, just south of the local waters. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft overnight, generally comprised of SE fresh/pseudo swell at 6+ second periods. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fairly weak weather features impacting the area during the near term period. Scattered showers and storms will develop on features like the sea breeze, a weak surface trough inland, and storm outflows through Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Typical summer time conditions expected as mid level ridging builds in through the period. The subtle mid level zonal flow to the north of the ridge allows a very warm westerly flow through the lower levels to develop thus the heat switch will be on. We see this synoptic pattern frequently across our area. With convection limited hence the building ridge...highs will build into the middle 90s and with juicy dewpoints the chances for a heat advisory increase in time. Lows will be in the middle 70s perhaps upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Heat related headlines will once again be possible Saturday and perhaps again Sunday as the mid level configuration of the strong ridge and westerly warming flow to the north remains more or less intact. It appears the pattern begins a subtle change later in the period and into early next week via a more Northwest flow as the main ridge pushes to the west. This shift allows a more conducive environment for convection and thermal profiles to decrease slightly. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR for the remainder of this evening with dissipating showers in the vicinity of the inland terminals thru 02Z. Scouring convective debris mid to high clouds to dominate the remainder of the overnight. Except included a MVFR stratus ceiling around daybreak for LBT only and may need to be included at FLO at later updates given the trends of GFSLamp guidance. High res models not as robust with onshore movement of pcpn prior to daybreak and into the daytime morning Wed hrs. Will include prob30s for the coastal terminals during this time line. Otherwise, more or less a repeat of Tue. Days heating will result with increasing instability and the better threat for tstorm activity, mainly across the inland terminals and ILM. By early to mid afternoon, main tstorm threat will reside across the inland terminals but will include VCTS for the coastal terminals given how pcpn evolved Tue. SSE-SSW flow 5 to 10 kt will diminish to 5 kt or less during this evening. S-SSW at 5 to 10 kt except gusts 15+ kt possible at the coastal terminals,mainly the afternoon into the evening. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and possibly early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...expect S to SE winds of 10 KT into tonight before winds become more southerly at 10 to 15 KT for Wednesday. Seas will run 2 to 3 FT. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Summer time pattern will be in place through the period for the coastal waters forecast. Winds will be from the south/southwest in a range of 15-20 knots at least Thursday and Friday when the inland trough is enhanced. This feature dissipates slightly for the remainder of the period with speeds walking down to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the higher seas generally early on with the stronger winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/31