Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 231748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN
DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH
RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...







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