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000
FXUS62 KILM 120256
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING AND LARGE TEMPERATURES DROPS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS LATE
EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE ALREADY BELOW 1000 MB ACROSS MISSOURI WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW. UNTIL THEN...WE ARE ENJOYING THE LAST DAY OF DRY MILD
WEATHER IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE 15Z SREF MEAN
LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 18Z NAM AND GFS WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. BEFORE DAYBREAK ODDS ARE LESS
THAN 50% THAT ANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL... HOWEVER
MY HIGHEST FORECAST POPS (30-40 PERCENT) ARE IN THE
FLORENCE-DARLINGTON-KINGSTREE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THE COAST
POPS RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND TO LESS THAN 10
PERCENT IN WILMINGTON.

CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD DESCEND INTO A MID DECK AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET WITH 1000
FOOT WIND SPEEDS 25-30 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY WITH ENOUGH
INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO FAR THIS EVENING. THE ADDITION OF THICKENING CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE CURVE THEN. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS WHICH RANGE FROM 55-58
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE NEWS THIS PERIOD IS A
VIGOROUS MARCH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A PUNCH OF SHARPLY
COLDER AIR INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY NOT CRACK 50 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NC BUT
OUR SC ZONES SHOULD CRAWL INTO THE LOW 50S UNDER A BRACING AND
STIFF NW COLD ADVECTION WIND...EASING IN SPEED TOWARD EVENING.

THE OTHER HEADLINE UNDER THE HOME AND GARDEN SECTION OF THE NEWS
WILL BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE NEAR
THE VULNERABLE START OF THE EARLY GROWING SEASON FOR FARMERS AND
HOME GROWER AFICIONADOS. THE LATEST SUITE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MAY SPEND MORE THAN JUST 1 OR 2
HOURS BELOW FREEZING. THUS TENDER OR YOUNG OUTDOOR VEGETATION AND
NEWLY OPEN TREE BUDS COULD GET COLD-SINGED BY THE AIR TEMPERATURE.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS APPEAR AVAILABLE TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM WED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SPC GENERAL TSTMS LINE CUTTING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF ZONES. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS DEPICTED BY SPC IS
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE CHILLY MARINE
LAYER WILL BE NON-SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS DEVELOPMENT...ERASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

LASTLY...WINDCHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS THURSDAY IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NW ELEVATED WIND FLOW WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 40S DURING AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RH VALUES AND BLUSTERY WIND WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING AN AFTERNOON UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY YET
STILL A GOOD 10 BELOW CLIMO. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
SATURDAY APPARENTLY MORE A FUNCTION OF SOLAR MODERATION RATHER THAN
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COLUMN. SATURDAY  NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES A
BIT MURKY. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY FLOW THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE ENTERING THE EQUATION. ONE THING THAT PERHAPS MAKES THIS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE IS THAT WEDNESDAY`S ARCTIC FRONT IS GOING TO SHOVE
SOME BAROCLINICITY DOWN INTO THE GOMEX AND A BROAD EXPANSE OF ASCENT
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE WEEKEND RETURN FLOW. THERE IS
SOME SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BOTH WEAK WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF AND SHOWING A DISTURBANCE COMING BETWEEN IT
AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BEING LARGELY ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW THE FRONT MAY
LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD UNSETTLED
ALTHOUGH NO PARTICULAR DAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURE
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...A LITTLE COOL BY DAY AND A FEW DEGREES MILD AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS SOON AS
MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN WIND PROFILE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR AS LOW
CIGS INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO MAY SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KLBT...BUT ANTICIPATE OVERALL
TSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS LATE
EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

QUITE A SEABREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
SOARED TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WHILE MARINE AIR TEMPERATURES MADE IT NO
HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 50S. THIS 20-25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FUELED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. THESE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES COOL...BUT A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF TOMORROW`S INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD
MAINTAIN WINDS IN THE 12-15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
BESIDES INCREASING FORECAST NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 0-3 HOUR
RANGE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE FORECAST
SEA HEIGHTS LATER TONIGHT AS SEAS SHOULD NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY UNTIL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 2-3 FOOT SEAS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS THIS PERIOD...SEAS 5-10 FEET
HIGHEST OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN WIND ON FRIDAY...AS
EARLY PART OF THE DAY TO BRING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THAT WILL VEER
TO ONSHORE BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EAST
FROM THE LANDMASS TO BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE. AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL PASS BY QUITE CLOSE TO OUR NORTH THE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK AND THUS THE WIND QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE VEER. THIS
KEEPS SEAS QUITE DIMINUTIVE AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT ACQUIRE STEEP
FACES NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BIG WIND SHIFTS WHILE SPEEDS ARE
HIGHER. MOST OF SATURDAY BRINGS A SUMMER-LIKE RETURN FLOW REGIME
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN MODESTLY AND ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SOMEWHAT
NORMAL HEIGHTS...SOME 5 FT WAVES MAY AFFECT THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. ITS WIND SHIFT WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOWERING OF WIND SPEED AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
         FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...COLBY
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL