Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 231855
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend along the East Coast through Thursday,
maintaining comfortable conditions. An upper ridge will expand
overhead late in the week and into the weekend, bringing a return
to seasonable heat and humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
may return this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Ridging at the surface and aloft will be the
name of the game through the period with low level northeast flow
helping spread moisture in the area this afternoon. This has
resulted in a healthy field of flat cumulus but with very little in
the way of vertical development. Clouds will quickly dissipate this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Low level northeast flow
will continue overnight with winds generally under 10 mph. Overnight
lows across much of the area will dip below 70 degrees tonight,
bringing an end to ILM`s days with temperatures above 70 degree
streak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface and mid level ridging will remain in
control of the region through the period. Elongated surface high
pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic coast to off the New
England coast will slowly shift east through the period, maintaining
low level northeast flow through Thu night. Meanwhile ridging aloft
will move from the Gulf Coast Wed AM to over the Carolinas later
Thu, strengthening a little as it moves north. Increasing subsidence
under the ridging aloft will limit deep moisture and likely suppress
any convection. Mixing is likely to keep low level moisture limited
during the day, especially on Wed, despite low level onshore flow.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A broad ridge at the surface and aloft
will dominate the pattern through the long term, although there
is a bit of uncertainty at the end of the period which will
depend upon the state of any tropical development and movement. At
this point ensembles do not show any tropical systems influencing
our area, so we are looking at fairly benign weather through the
period. Subsidence under the upper ridge in combination with
moisture-starved upper levels will keep a lid on convection,
although the odd diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with
afternoon cu developing each day, with skies clearing at night. A
blend of guidance keeps temperatures a notch above seasonal levels
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Short TAFs today with FM groups merely addressing the
diurnal loss of our cumulus ceilings towards sunset and the winds
growing lighter due to shallower mixing. Cumulus clouds likely
return tomorrow but may be more hard-pressed to form a ceiling due
to some drier air.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface high to the north will maintain
northeast flow across the waters tonight with speeds on the high end
of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas around 3 ft with potential for
isolated 4 ft near 20 nm. Seas will generally be wind swell
dominated with wave periods of 4 to 5 sec.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow continues through the period as
the surface high to the north becomes elongated as it retreats
northeast. Gradient will remain unchanged with speeds on the higher
end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft with
isolated 4 ft near 20 nm possible.

LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A broad and weak high pressure system
extending across the waters will keep winds NE to E at around 10
kts or so through much of the period, with seas of right around 3
ft. However, seas on Sunday may build to 4 or 5 ft as long-period
swell from distant tropical systems impinge upon the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Wilmington has broken its record for the most
consecutive days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer. It
remains to be seen if we make it down below 70 before sunrise,
potentially tacking on one more day to this record-breaking string.
Wilmington`s temperature records began in 1874.

Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees
#1  57 days 6/27/2016 to 8/22/2016
#2  56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012
#3  52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941
#4  48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986
#5  46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991

In Florence, SC the record for consecutive 70+ degree low
temperatures has also been broken. Florence temperature records
began in 1948.

Florence`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees
#1  62 days 6/22/2016 to 8/22/2016
#2  60 days 6/26/2005 to 8/24/2005
#3  55 days 7/ 6/1975 to 8/29/1975
#4  46 days 7/10/2010 to 8/24/2010
#5  45 days 6/11/2015 to 7/25/2015
#5  45 days 6/28/1991 to 8/11/1991

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III
CLIMATE...TRL



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