Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
304 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mild weather will prevail through today before chillier air behind a
cold front comes crashing into the eastern Carolinas tonight. The
weekend will be characterized by seasonably cool temperatures with
lows in the 40s and highs remaining below 70 degrees Saturday and
Sunday. A brief warm-up Monday will be followed by a reinforcing
shot of dry and cool air Monday night. This will set the stage for
dry and fair conditions in the upcoming week with temperatures
near normal for the season.


As of 3 PM Friday...Despite the strength of the cold front coming
into western zones and the dynamics accompanying it the air is
just too dry to support any more than 20-ish POPs. These will be
confined to mainly NC zones and only into the evening with FROPA.
Cold advection slated for the remainder of the period to yield a
breezy night and low temps in the upper 40s to 50.


As of 3 PM Friday...A crisp Fall airmass will build into the area
over the weekend. Expect full sunshine and decreasing winds but also
temperatures below climatology by roughly 5 degrees by both day and
night as highs fall short of 70 and nighttime lows dip into the 40s.


As of 3 PM Friday...Dry cold front will sweep across the forecast
area Monday followed by surface high building in from the north,
pushed south by 5h trough exiting New England early next week. Temps
Mon, ahead of the front, will end up above climo. Surface ridge axis
is quick to move east despite flow aloft that isn`t fully zonal.
Surface flow will veer from northerly at the start of the period to
southerly late in the period. Aloft the flow transitions from
northwest flow Mon to westerly flow Wed as weak 5h ridge to the west
expands east. Ridge is of limited strength but combination of
southerly low level flow and slight increase in heights later in the
week will bring about a gradual warming trend.

Late in the week the GFS/ECMWF are split with respect to strength
and location of shortwave trough. ECMWF keeps the 5h ridge a bit
stronger which results in the wave passing north of the region.
Trailing cold front would push across the area sometime Fri but
would do so dry. GFS maintains a weaker mid level ridge which
results in the shortwave moving across NC/VA Fri with unsettled
weather to end period. For now favor the ECMWF solution given the
tendency for the guidance to underestimate the strength of ridging
aloft. Temps Tue and Wed will run a little below climo before
returning near climo Thu and Fri.


As of 18Z...Widely scattered showers and tstms expected as a cold
front pushes off the coast later this afternoon. Included VCSH at
all terminals as a result. VFR conditions expected for the remainder
of the night into Saturday with decent drying through the column.
Gusty northwest winds are expected with frontal passage for a few
hours then and increase in gusty winds with mixing Saturday morning.

Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday.


As of 3 PM Friday...Winds still rather light across the waters
but cold front bearing down on the area from the west. This
boundary will bring an abrupt wind shift and increase in wind
speed this evening, followed by a cool surge that has caused us to
raise a Small Craft Advisory that will remain in effect overnight
and beyond.

As of 3 PM Friday...Fairly robust cool advection and high
pressure moving in through Saturday morning before the gradient
starts to ease. Advisory flags likely to be flying until afternoon
or evening, with northern zones likely abating a bit after their
southern counterparts. The high to our west starts to move
eastward Saturday night and should sprawl across a good part of
the Carolinas and Gulf States by Sunday allowing for wind speeds
to drop off especially later in the day.

As of 3 PM Friday...Cold front will cross the waters during Mon
with cold advection Mon night and Tue leading to northerly flow in
the 15 to 20 kt range. Cold advection and gradient weaken later
Tue with winds becoming more northeast and dropping to 10 to 15
kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Mon could approach 5 ft well away from the
coast Tue afternoon. Decreasing winds during the second half of
the period will allows seas to drop back around 3 ft Wed.


As of 615 AM Friday...Looks like between the hours of noon and 5
pm for the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out
of it`s banks. At this point, it could breach the Moderate
flooding thresholds of 6.7 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the
downtown Wilmington gage. Expect the next advisory or warning to
be issued within the next 3 to 4 hours. the following are high
tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River of downtown
Wilmington thru Sunday...

High tide 2:57 PM on Fri.
High tide 3:23 AM on Sat.
High tide 3:56 PM on Sat.
High tide 4:22 AM on Sun.
High tide 4:53 PM on Sun.


NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252.



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