Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 190619
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
219 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through
Tuesday night. Milder and continued dry through Thursday. Rain
chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure
moves northeastward up the Southeast Atlantic coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Gusts near the coast are reading 30-40 mph as the disturbance
moves offshore. Any chances of rain are delegated to Pender and
New Hanover now. Gustiness should decrease within the next
couple hours as the nighttime inversion sets up. Updated
aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well
offshore, while weak low pressure lingers across Appalachia and
the Piedmont. The frontal passage from earlier this morning has
allowed for very dry air to settle at the surface. Dewpoints
this morning were in the mid 50s, and have now dropped into the
upper 20s to lower 30s. Ironically enough, clouds aloft have
filled in over the last couple of hours, as a potent shortwave
aloft starts to drop into the area from the northwest.

Said shortwave will quickly sweep through the area tonight.
Cloud cover will continue to thicken aloft, despite the very
dry air at the surface. There`s a subtle hint of moisture
convergence north of Cape Fear after 10 PM, and the atmosphere
will try to squeeze out whatever water it can. However, the
saturation is very thin, lingering at around 700mb. Surface
dewpoints continue to plummet into the lower 20s, so whatever
falls out of the cloud may dry out before it hits the surface
("virga" being the technical term for that phenomena). Some
folks may see a couple sprinkles at best before 2 AM tonight
across the coastal regions of southeast NC.

Elsewhere, lows tonight bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s. The
temperatures meet Frost Advisory criteria inland, but tonight
looks looks much too dry and windy to actually issue one.
Probabilistic guidance suggests a modest chance (30-50%) of
temperatures actually near or even just below freezing across
certain parts of Darlington and Marlboro Counties. I`m not so
confident on that idea, given the elevated winds, and if anybody
does hit the freezing mark, it probably would only be for an
hour or so. Therefore, holding off on a Freeze Warning tonight.

Plenty of sunshine on the way for Tuesday, but it`ll be on the
chilly side, with high pressure from the Midwest having an
influence. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 50s in what looks
to be the coolest day of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much of note this period with the region under the
influence of weak sfc high pressure, allowing for continued dry
weather over the local area. Some moderation of temps noted as
thicknesses increase...highs in the 60s/70s unlike the 50s
forecasted for Tuesday. A weak front moving through Wednesday
night will lead to slightly cooler temps Thursday than
Wednesday, but still near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Focus in the long term period will be on developing Gulf of
Mexico sfc low pressure tracking northeastward. In general
guidance seems a bit more progressive with this southern stream
system now, however there remains large differences in timing.
Enough confidence to retain likely PoPs for Friday and Friday
night, with the rain moderate to heavy at times and a slight
chance of thunder. A drying trend ensues over the weekend, but
it remains unclear how long the rain will linger especially on
Saturday should the mid-level trough slow down. Temps fairly
close to normal for late March this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with gusty NNW winds. Gusts 20-30kts will remain at the
coast for the next couple hours while gusts inland should be at
or below 20kts. These higher gusts will decrease towards
daybreak. Winds will gradually shift to out of the SW towards
the evening, with gusts near 20 kts in the aftn and possibly
again towards the end of the period.

Extended Outlook... VFR. Flight restrictions possible Friday
through the end of the period due to increasing rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Pressure gradient increases tonight with an
upper level system moving through, bringing stiff northwesterly
winds into the fold. These winds will initiate a Small Craft
Advisory at 11 PM EDT tonight, going through noon EDT Tuesday.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few gusts hit gale criteria
tonight, particularly over the northeast SC coastal waters, but
it`s not quite consistent enough to upgrade these to a Gale
Warning at this time. These offshore winds cause wind waves to
poke up at 3-4ft. After the upper level disturbance moves
through, winds eventually decrease to 10-15kts from the
southwest by Tuesday afternoon. Seas decrease to 1-2ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Couple more SCA headlines
expected this period. First is Tuesday night as the pressure
gradient increases in SW flow ahead of the next weak front.
Somewhat improving conditions then for Wednesday and Thursday,
before winds and seas ramp up Friday into Saturday in
association with developing low pressure sliding up the SE
coast. By early Saturday expect seas up to 8-9 ft and winds
gusting to ~25 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern
North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity tomorrow afternoon
will fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds
will hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest
winds will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later
in the day. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible during the late
afternoon and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry
fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to
increased fire danger on Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/IGB
FIRE WEATHER...


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