Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281918
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
318 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity
to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down
over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Heat wave continues and the upper ridge will
for one more day quash any convection. Excessive Heat Warning
continues for the Cape Fear region and while ILM ASOS has shown
falling dewpoints all day most mesonet sites have not and feel that
the Warning is likely verifying for the most part. This may be some
local effect as the ASOS is in such an open field. Even so, KLTX
showing the marine layer creeping into the area and dewpoints are
likely to rise. Any place within the Warning seems fair game to meet
criteria between now and about 6 pm. The Warning goes till 8 mainly
to avoid having to "step down" to an Advisory for just a few hours
this evening. Tonight will be muggy with lows in the mid 70s inland
to around 80 most coastal locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...While not exactly a refreshing cooldown by any
means there actually may not be any heat products needed tomorrow.
Piedmont trough pushes east enough to advect the higher dewpoints
offshore. Heat indices generally in the 100-104 range. The mid level
ridge is also beaten down by broad, weakly cyclonic belt of
westerlies across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This means that a few
spots may actually be able to support some diurnal convection. The
Cape Fear area sea breeze appears to have the best shot while a
secondary max should be far NW zones in association with the trough.
Places farther south still look too capped. Saturday is starting to
look interesting. The Piedmont trough closes off a weak low and
forecast soundings show a lessening of the mid level dry air that
has been so instrumental in squelching convection. Also interesting
is that guidance shows that afternoon temperatures get warmer again
and we are looking at a Heat Advisory again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Mid level pattern will have transitioned to
troughing by the start of the period, with the strength of the 5h
trough increasing slightly Mon and Tue. A cold front will move into
the region during the middle of next week but this feature is likely
to stall just north and west of the area. This will leave the
Piedmont trough and the daily sea breeze, along with the Bermuda
High, as the most significant surface features during the period.
Mid level cooling and deep moisture, PWATs will be around 2 inches
Sun into Tue, will lead to a steady increase in precip chances Sun
and Mon. Likely pop is warranted across the region Mon and Mon night
before the mid level axis moves overhead Tue. The trough axis brings
an increase in dry air aloft and weak downward motion, causing a
decreasing trend in precip chances for the middle of the week. Pop
will still be on the high side Tue as deep moisture holds on but by
Wed PWATs drop down near 1.5 inch and remain there through Thu.
Temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above climo Sun and Mon will trend back
to climo for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR through the valid TAF cycle. Runway gusts to 19
KT between W and SW through 0z. WSW-SW winds diminishing to 8 KT
or less coastal terminals AFT 1z, and 3-5 KT inland airports. AFT
15z Friday, W-WSW gusts 17-19 KT, Tonight, ISOLD 5SM BR BTWN 09z-
12z inland, although anticipated coverage and confidence level
does not warrant inclusion at terminals.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLD/SCT afternoon convection Sunday and
onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...A low level jet will develop tonight and add
to the gustiness if not outright add a few kt of sustained wind
speeds. This could open up sea height forecast just a bit to include
some offshore 4 footers.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Southwesterly flow continues between high
pressure and the Bermuda high. Low level jet from the near term will
persist but also weaken and move further offshore. This could cause
the 4 ft seas to drop out of the forecast. Saturday looks like a bit
of a repeat with light SW flow through the day and then a nocturnal
jet at night that kicks up the winds and may even feature a return
of 4 ft seas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Marine conditions will continue to be
driven by the interaction of the Piedmont trough and the Bermuda
High. SOuthwest flow will continue through the period with speeds
closer to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to a solid 15 kt in the
afternoon and evening. Seas continue to run 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-110.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-
     099-105>109.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC



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