Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 140802
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable weather will return today and last through the
weekend with only a brief cool down on Saturday. Low pressure
approaching from the Gulf will bring an increasing chance of
rain, and a warming trend through early next week. A cold front
will push through the area by mid week with drier weather to
follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Stiff SW winds have brought temps up
about 10 degrees overnight in WAA ahead of yet another clipper low
getting pushed along by shortwave riding through broad trough
over the eastern CONUS. Guidance has not captured this much of
quick rise with most temps 35 to 40 inland and up to 45 along
the coast.

The shortwave will move off the coast later this morning
leaving a more westerly flow across the area. This deep westerly
flow will help temps rise up near 60 degrees for high temps this
aftn and will maintain dry weather across the area.

High pressure will build down behind cold front through tonight
with a light northerly flow reaching down into the Carolinas.
Models show a rise in 850 temps through early today leveling off
and then falling a few degrees in the more northerly flow
through tonight. As winds drop off tonight, expect better
radiational cooling conditions with only a few clouds expected.
This will produce a cool night with temps dropping into the mid
30s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Some changes in the longwave pattern
aloft this period, with the question of whether it becomes
established for a time. The large amplitude upper trough
affecting the FA at the start of this week, has mellowed out by
the time this period commences. Models indicate active northern
and southern branches of the jet stream that will meet overhead
across the FA at the start of this period but then models have
the northern stream retreat back to the Mid-Atlantic states and
the NE States by the end of this period. This leaves the
southern branch of the jetstream to expand northward.

At the sfc, models indicate a stalled front well south and east of
the FA at the start of this period. A s/w mid-level flow
tracking east-southeast will develop a sfc low just off the
Carolina Coasts early Fri along with it`s associated frontal
system. The sfc low will accelerate northeast away from the FA
Fri aftn and night. Progged Sounding moisture profiles indicate
some mid and upper level moisture however, the low levels remain
dry. As a result, will continue with no pcpn.

In it`s wake, clearing skies with CAA occurring across the FA thru
early Sat before becoming Neutral. This will just re- enforce the
cold air across the FA from the recent CFP prior to this period.
Thus, temperatures for both days will near the seasonable norms for
this time period with mins at or just below the norms and the maxes
at or just above the norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Expect a warming trend into early next
week, as ridging aloft ensues. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
and strength of ejected Baja short-wave Sunday, but both agree
on a milder and wetter pattern after the weekend. The first
chance of rain by Sunday night, as this features ejects offshore
early Monday. Despite ECMWF/GFS differences even into Tuesday,
it seems we can infer a mild pattern prevailing and rain chances
ahead of an upper trough, that in both models appears along the
east coast next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06z...A stiff southwest wind will continue overnight into
Thursday. Have included some gusts in coastal terminals and
tempo gusts inland. Although dewpoint temps have been increasing
overnight, air mass remains dry overall. Only some passing mid
to high clouds expected through the period with VFR conditions.
Winds will veer to the west through today and further to the
north tonight as another system passes by to the north and high
pressure builds in from the north behind it.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR Sun night into Monday
associated with low pressure system moving across the Southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Stiff SW winds 20 to 25 kts with higher
gusts have brought seas up to Small Craft Advisory thresholds
with sea heights up to 4 to 7 ft across the local waters. A
Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until noon today.

This tightened gradient flow ahead of a weak cold front will
diminish this afternoon to 10 to 15 kts as winds veering around
to the west. As high pressure builds down behind the front
tonight, winds will veer further to the N-NW. Seas will subside
in this weakening off shore flow down to 2 to 4 ft by late this
afternoon and will continue to gradually decreasing through
tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Friday thru Friday night will be the more
active time period for winds and significant seas due to sfc low
development just offshore that deepens as it accelerates northeast
away from the local waters Fri night. Looking at SW-W winds
increasing during Fri to SCEC levels, then veering to the NW-NNW at
SCEC levels Fri night as the sfc low accelerates away.
For Sat thru Sat night, no caution or advisories expected. Winds
will drop to 10 kt or less during Sat aftn and to around 5 kt Sat
night as the center of sfc high pressure moves overhead.
Significant seas will maximize at 3 to 5 ft Fri aftn and evening
followed by a subsiding trend for the remainder of this period to
less than 2 ft. Wind driven waves will dominate Fri thru daytime Sat
with periods at 4 to 5 seconds. An easterly 1 foot ground swell at 9
to 10 second periods will dominate toward the end of this period as
wind induced waves subside.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...A manageable marine period. No
advisories are expected as weak high pressure moves farther
offshore on Sunday. SW-W winds expected Monday as high pressure
settles offshore and SE of the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...RGZ



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