868
FXUS62 KMHX 100003
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
803 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be
followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push
across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of
the work-week. A backdoor front approaches the area this
weekend, keeping an active pattern in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Small potential for strong to severe storms to move into the
   coastal plain this evening

All is quiet across ENC this evening, though a large complex of
severe thunderstorms continues over central NC and VA. Almost
all model guidance keeps this activity west of the forecast area
until it weakens early tonight. However, there is still a small
chance that convection makes further eastward progress than
anticipated, and this would bring a threat for strong to severe
storms to the coastal plain later this evening.

Additional shower and thunderstorm activity may move into the
area overnight or early tomorrow morning both from the west and
south, but with a stable nocturnal environment, the severe
threat is looking minimal to none with these storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...
Upper level troughing sets up as the ridge weakens, when paired
with a moistening environment, sets the table for increased
storm coverage tomorrow afternoon/evening. For this reason,
elected to not deviate from NBM with this update. Locally heavy
rainfall could result in minor flooding concerns, and gusty,
sub-severe winds are possible with the strongest of storms. If
the cluster of storms in the morning moves through, it is
possible initiation of the afternoon convection is delayed or
suppressed with subsidence and/or stable lower levels behind
the initial morning convection possible. Increased cloud cover
will keep highs a degree or two cooler than today, mid to upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0445 Wednesday...Overall, summertime pattern with SFC
thermal trough inland and high anchored offshore. Upper levels
have multiple troughs and/or closed lows streaming through
Great Lakes and off the NE coast but at our latitude, ridging
dominates offshore to the E and over WCONUS. A series of
midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to
late week continuing to keep the moisture influx off the Gulf
at least somewhat tapped from midlevels downward across
SECONUS. Typical diurnal PoP pattern unless a stronger storm
cluster persists and drifts into the FA from further inland in
the early overnight hours before dissipating. With high PW
values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy
rainfall. WPC currently has at least part of the FA in a
marginal ERO for the remainder of the work week. Instability is
what you would expect around this time of year, 2-4kJ/kg
depending on what guidance you trust. Shear parameters do not
look overly impressive given the departure from upper level
jet(s) well to the N and offshore high expanding its effective
area Ward at the end of the week. With that said, water loading
of strongest updrafts could lead to some gustier wind potential
should the bottom fall out of more vigorous cells. As such, SPC
has parts of the FA in marginal threat for severe storms to
develop. Coastal Plain is where the strongest instability and
greatest convergence would line up.

MaxTs in upper 80s, MinTs mid 70s.

This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic
coast but there are tons of model differences in how far and how
quickly it will march Sward. This remains contingent on how much
momentum gets transferred from the trough aloft exiting NECONUS
and where midlevel shortwaves and potential MCSs line up.

For now, keeping the backdoor front N of the area until early
next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal summer
time shower and tstorms in place through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/...
As of 8 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - MVFR conditions possible across the coastal plain early
   tomorrow morning

 - Convection likely tomorrow afternoon

VFR conditions are present this evening with high pressure
offshore. A complex of severe thunderstorms remains off the
west over central NC, and has a small likelihood of making to
the coastal plain, but will probably dissipate before reaching
the forecast area. Ample low level moisture will be present
again overnight, and may lead to the formation of low stratus as
the boundary layer cools. Best chances at seeing MVFR ceilings
will be across the coastal plain from 6z-12z, and there could
even be some periods of IFR level stratus before sunrise. Closer
to the coast, some transient periods of MVFR are possible, but
conditions should remain mostly VFR. VFR conditions will be slow
to return tomorrow morning as cloudbases continue to be very
low with high amounts of moisture present. Eventually by mid
morning, VFR conditions will return everywhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning, and
will likely become more numerous in the afternoon as a front
approaches.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 0430 Wednesday...A series of mid-level systems will push
across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the
threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late
night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible
most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall. Slow
moving front sags down the NE coast late weekend/early week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 8 PM Wednesday..SCAs still in place for coastal waters
from Cape Lookout north, as well as the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke
Sounds as winds remain SW 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts here.
Winds will peak shortly early this evening, and then slowly
subside by early tomorrow morning, with SCAs set to expire at 2
am.

Winds tomorrow will be more of the same with SW 15-20 kts in the
morning, strengthening to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, with the
threat for Small Craft conditions to again develop.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 0510 Wednesday...Expect similar to above through the end
of the work week, but there may be a SLIGHT downward trend in
what the winds will peak at in the afternoons and evenings as
the offshore high builds Wward toward the coast FRI.

Cold front slowly sags down NEcoast this weekend, but for now,
keep it no further S than the NC/VA border until early next
week. Therefore, see above.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150-
     152-154-156-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB/RJ
MARINE...SGK/CEB/RJ