National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181720
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and clear conditions expected today. A backdoor cold front
crosses the region overnight. More unsettled weather is
possible for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1 PM Thu... Previously mentioned cold front has recently
reached our N`rn tier with the front extending from W to E
across portions of Washington, Tyrell and Dare Counties as of
this update as N`rly winds are noted in these areas. Starting to
see a Diurnal Cu field pop up as well near the front. Overall
did not make many changes to the forecast as the front will
continue to sag S`wards this afternoon bringing a shift in wind
direction to the area with some marine stratus beginning to
overspread the NOBX by this evening.

Prev Disc...Shortwave is quickly racing off the coast,
taking minimal precipitation with it and leaving clear skies in
its wake. Warm downsloping flow is expected through this
afternoon with highs climbing well into the 80s. West to west-
northwesterly flow will keep sea and sound breezes pinned along
the coast. Sided on the low end of guidance for Tds as models
have tend to underestimate mixing in these regimes. By mid-
afternoon, surface low sliding off the mid- Atlantic coast will
usher a weakening front across NOBX which will eventually help
push aforementioned sound breezes inland. The convergence of the
breezes and the front pose a low risk of shallow showers - not
high enough to warrant mentionable PoPs as column will still
remain very dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM Thu...Front will gradually push across the FA
through Fri morning although dry conditions will prevail. Low
stratus will encroach from the northeast behind the front with
moist onshore flow trapped under the frontal inversion. Biggest
question overnight is how cool temperatures will get behind the
front, particularly across the northern OBX. Knocked lows down
into the low 50s across this area, although some hi-res guidance
shows a 30-40% chance of lows in the upper 40s. Future
forecasts may need to lower MinTs further.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early
next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday through Friday night...Upper ridge axis cresting over the
area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another
dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is
progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night,
which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best
overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we`ll
have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk
of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17. E to NE
onshore flow will bring cooler temps along the coast, especially
across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well
inland highs expected in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected
to become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing
more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections
of ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow
for a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become
strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will
bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night
with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low
pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the
OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on
Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will
quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave
energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the
chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low
80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with
clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal
with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near
normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Fri/...
As of 115 PM Thu... VFR conditions remain over ENC this
afternoon as a cold front has begun to make its way into the
area. Ahead of the front west to northwest winds will persist,
occasionally gusting to 15 kts at times this afternoon while
behind the front winds will shift to a north to northeast
direction generally around 5-10 kts. This front will be nearing
our southern zones by tonight before stalling out with a frontal
inversion setting up behind the front. This inversion will trap
whatever moisture we have in the lower levels allowing for low
stratus to eventually develop generally after the 03-06Z
timeframe first impacting the NOBX and eventually making its way
SW`wards across the FA after 06Z. There is still some
uncertainty with how far this low stratus deck makes it, but
with the most recent guidance it looks to make it as far SW as
EWN so have included an IFR ceiling deck from here to points
NE`ward in the TAF`s. Across the rest of the terminals
ISO/PGV/OAJ there remains too much uncertainty for lower
ceilings so have just kept a SCT MVFR deck in these other
locations though adjustments may need to be made in coming
updates. Otherwise marine stratus eventually lifts by mid
morning allowing VFR conditions to return across all of ENC.
Winds generally remain light through the entire period.


LONG TERM /Friday evening through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level
shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low
pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday
night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR
conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 445 AM Thu...Winds are so far under-performing hi-res
guidance across area waters, with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt
across the Pamlico Sound and central waters ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave. Seas have primarily remained
under 6 feet with the exception over Diamond Shoals. Trend is
for winds to gradually ease as disturbance exits the region. By
this afternoon, backdoor cold front will gradually cross area
waters from northeast to south ushering in another surge of
10-15 kt northeasterly flow with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely
primarily overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. NE winds
around 10-20 kt Friday morning will become variable around 10 kt
or less by late in the day as high pressure ridging into the
area weakens. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night
becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front
drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will
develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night
into Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally
be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters
through Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak
Monday around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters
and 6-10 ft across the central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/MS