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000
FXUS62 KMHX 131415
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1015 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong gradient continues today between high pressure building
in from the Deep South, and low pressure over New England.
Tonight the high will move nearly overhead and then shift
offshore tomorrow. On Monday a cold front will push south
across the Mid-Atlantic and stall, eventually lifting back
north as a warm front on Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly
builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next
cold front impacts the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 1015 AM Sat...No big changes with am update.

Prev disc...As of 7 AM Sat...The backside of a deep upper level
trough will remain over the area today while at the surface a
strong pressure gradient persists between high pressure building
in from the Deep South, and low pressure over New England.

Another round of strong winds expected today as steep lapse
rates promote deep mixing. Winds will gust 30 to 40+ mph this
afternoon with the highest gusts likely over the coastal plain.
Otherwise, wall to wall sunshine is anticipated with very dry
air moving into the area. Downsloping flow will help counteract
the dip in temps aloft, and allow for afternoon highs to reach
the low 70s for most of Eastern NC. Finally, decreasing relative
humidities due to the influx of dry air will combine with the
strong winds and dry ground fuels to produce elevated fire
danger conditions today (more info in the Fire Weather section
below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...High pressure will build nearly overhead
tonight which will lead to calmer conditions overnight. There
may be just enough of a gradient to prevent winds from
decoupling, but otherwise there will be good radiational cooling
conditions with clear skies present. Low temps will likely
range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the low to mid 50s
along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Sat... Some minor tweaks to the overall forecast but in
general a warm but pleasant week looks to be on tap.

Sun through Wed...We start the period out with upper level WNW flow
as an upper level trough to the northeast pulls further away with
this WNW to NW flow persisting through Monday as general broad
troughing off the East Coast deepens and upper level ridging
begins to build across the Central CONUS. As this occurs, a
weak mid level shortwave will be riding along this flow Sun
evening while a second weak s/w tracks across the Mid-Atlantic
Mon night. At the surface, ridging centered over the Southeast
will slowly push E`wards while to the north low pressure will
quickly track E`wards across New England on Sun with its
associated cold front tracking SE`wards into the Mid-Atlantic
Sun evening and on Monday. While dry air will keep precip out
of the forecast initially, a tightening pressure gradient Sun
evening between ridging to our south and the front to our north
will promote a brief uptick in SW`rly flow Sun afternoon and
evening with gusts up around 15-25 mph expected. With RH`s also
around the mid 20s to low 30s on Sun as well, expect another
day of elevated fire danger Sun afternoon across our Coastal
Plain. As we get into Mon, cold front finally makes its way
towards the Carolinas and recent guidance suggests enough
moisture may pool along and out ahead of the front for a few iso
showers to develop primarily along our northern tier before
this front stalls across ENC Mon night. Temps Sun and Mon remain
rather warm with highs getting into the 80s inland and 70s
along the coast and OBX while lows only get down into upper 50s
to low 60s.

By Tues upper level ridging builds over the Eastern Seaboard
while upper level troughing enters the Central CONUS. At the
surface stalled frontal boundary lifts N`wards as a warm front
Tuesday bringing a threat for some shower and thunderstorm
activity as lift and moisture begin to gradually increase across
ENC with the area likely remaining dry on Wed as high pressure
ridging briefly makes a reappearance across the region. Temps
continue to remain well above avg across ENC through mid week.

Thurs into the end of next week... Evolution of the late week
forecast becomes a bit murkier with respect to exact details, but
the overall evolution hasn`t changed much. Expect an upper level
trough with associated shortwave to approach the Eastern
Seaboard on Thursday and move through the region by Fri. At the
surface this will bring a cold front across the area by the end
of the work week bringing our next best threat for some precip
to end the period. Temps continue to remain well above avg
through Fri before cooling off behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Early Sunday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period with mostly clear skies expected. However, gusty westerly
winds will develop today and peak this afternoon which could
lead to takeoff/landing challenges at local terminals. Winds
will gust 30-40 mph this afternoon, and then decrease quickly
after sunset. A light breeze will linger overnight with skies
remaining mostly clear.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period. Elevated SW`rly winds on Sun afternoon generally ranging
around 15-20 kts would be the only additional concern in the
long term, with winds easing by Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Sat...No big changes with update. Latest 13/12Z
model suite decreases winds a bit faster, and have thus ended
SCA by 4PM later this afternoon with winds diminishing below 25
kt.

Prev disc...As of 7 AM Sat...Small craft conditions will
continue today across all the waters as strong westerly winds
persist at 20-30 kts, and seas remain 5-8 ft this morning and
4-6 ft this afternoon.

Winds will finally subside this evening, and with quickly
improving conditions tonight. Winds will become 10 kts or less
after midnight with seas 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Expecting benign boating conditions to start
the period with high pressure ridging extending northwards
across our waters with 5-10 kt NW`rly winds across our waters
and 2-3 ft seas across our coastal waters. Expect our next
chance at some small craft conditions to occur Sun evening as
the gradient tightens between ridging to our south and a front
to our north allowing winds to become SW`rly Sun evening and
increase to 15-20 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts while
seas build to 4-5 ft Sun night. The gradient will relax some on
Mon as the cold front approaches and ridging moves off to the
east allowing SW`rly winds to decrease closer to 10-15 kts while
seas lower to 3-4 ft. Overall expect 10-20 kt SW`rly winds
across all water and 3-5 ft seas across our coastal waters from
Tue into the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 4 AM Sat...There will be an increased threat for
wildfires across most of Eastern NC today until around sunset.
The combination of strong westerly wind gusts of up to 35 mph,
relative humidity values of 20 to 25 percent this afternoon, and
dry ground fuels will allow any fires to quickly spread with
erratic fire behavior possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 AM Sat...Persistent westerly winds today will keep
soundside water levels elevated along the Northern Outer Banks
and a Coastal Flood Advisory continues here. Additionally,
powerful long period swell will continue through this evening,
bringing overwash at times around high tide to vulnerable
sections of NC-12 across the northern end of Ocracoke Island.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ203-204.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...TL/SGK/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX