Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 122050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS


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