Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 020217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...BEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION REMAINS JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WITH A MORE ENHANCED REGION OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN NJ. THE LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS THIS UPSTREAM RAINFALL MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF DUTCHESS COUNTY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NY IS CURRENTLY
EXHIBITING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...THIS TOO
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FGEN ALOFT FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SO MINOR UPDATE THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC..
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH INTO PA/NJ.
SO...PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM AT BEST WITH
THE RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF COOL AIR OVER THE REGION. ONE LAST
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT
AND EASTWARD MOVING TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH RAIN FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT...OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY ISOLATED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SO...WORDING RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN STEADIER
PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES AT MOST TONIGHT.
SO...LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING EXITS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE CAN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION. SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE SHOW DEEP MOISTURE EXITING DURING THE DAY...BUT
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN DETROIT AND THE GREAT LAKES CAN ADVECT HERE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE STRONG JUNE SUN COULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SOME
BREAKS AND THIN AREAS TO THE CLOUDS COULD HELP US WARM WELL INTO
THE 60S. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...SO
GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW.

TOMORROW NIGHT...ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR...WITH DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR
WEATHER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 40S...SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SLOW AND GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FLAT
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE MID
70S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S IN FAVORED WARM SPOTS...BUT LOWER
70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
ASSIST ONCE AGAIN ASSIST WITH MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RETURNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.  THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME SURFACE BASED PARCELS FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 1020+MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WE ROUND OUT THIS FIRST
FULL WEEKEND OF JUNE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE IFR CONDITIONS /POSSIBLE LIFR/ EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.

MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO CALM WINDS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
A KPSF WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...AS THE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER
WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION RECEIVED WELL
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 55 TO 75 PERCENT...THEN ON
WEDNESDAY...35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALL OTHER
AREAS OF EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
CAN EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH...WITH THE LEAST
TO THE NORTH...AND THE MOST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...WITH MOST RIVERS REMAINING BELOW ACTION
STAGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK IN ON TUESDAY...TAPERING THE
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE DAY. DRIER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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