Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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