Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 250221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1021 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS
FINALLY RELAXED...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOSING DOWN INTO UPSTATE NY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A
RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5
MPH OR LESS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
ON FRIDAY EVENING /00Z SATURDAY/.

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING WINDS UNDER 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. KPOU/KGFL WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKER THAN KALB/KPSF.  LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN BE
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A S-SE DIRECTION AT ABOUT 5-10 MPH FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN ON FRIDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL TAF SITES HAVING A BKN
MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FOR FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM







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