Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT...TRENDING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FURTHER S AND W. A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH ITS LEADING EDGE NOW
IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W TO E THROUGH
MIDDAY...ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION THROUGH 11 AM...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM...AND INTO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SOUTHERN VT BETWEEN ROUGHLY NOON AND 3 PM. SHOWERS SHOULD LAST FOR
AROUND 2-3 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SHALLOW ENOUGH
WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING. LATEST AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT MANY AREAS ONLY RECEIVE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS LOW...DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED INSTABILITY. PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND BERKSHIRES COULD HAVE A FEWER STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING BAND. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 6.0 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 25-30 KT. FORECAST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WHERE SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
LONGER. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL STILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH FROM W TO E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...OUR REGION WILL BECOME
CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA LATER TODAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL HEATING OCCURS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDDAY SHOWERS...WILL DETERMINE IF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO OR ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FOR AREAS
MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS LOW OVERALL.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO +2 TO +3
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS. THUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SOME
MAINLY MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM...BUT COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THOUGH...MAKING IT FEEL QUICK
MUGGY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY SPIKE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF MIDDAY
SHOWERS...IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN MAY DROP INTO THE 70S FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THERE BY SUNSET.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY TO START THE EVENING WITH A WEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL
EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE EVENING...DRYING AND CLEARING WILL
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND WITH
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND A
WESTERLY BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN MANY SPOTS BUT THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL START TO GRADUALLY FALL FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH STARTS TO GET CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PROMOTING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING STILL IN QUESTION REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...BUT
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AT LEAST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A GRADUALLY DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROF AND THROUGH THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FOR AT LEAST
SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.. THE ONLY PERIOD THAT IS FORECAST
TO BE DRY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE PERIOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (30 TO 40 PERCENT) IS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE TIME POPS WILL RANGE FROM DRY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF VARY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM DAY TO DAY IS FAIRLY LOW SINCE
THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPERATURE WISE THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE LONG
WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS...AS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT KGFL THE WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS IS FROM 16Z-18Z...KALB 17Z- 19Z...KPSF AND
KPOU 19Z- 21Z.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENDS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG FORMATION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY TODAY.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 90 TO
100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES FRIDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 TO
50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WESTERLY AT
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA. WITH PWAT VALUES POTENTIALLY NEAR TWO
INCHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV



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