Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 240252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE/BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. CONTINUE TO
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND NEAR THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE UPSTREAM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A NICE EARLY AUTUMN DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RETREATS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +10C WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WED NIGHT...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OUR
FCST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT RAINFALL WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SRN TIER BTWN
06Z-12Z...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ONLY...AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE
NY AND PA WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF NYC. A DECENT
FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS AND NW CT. THIS COULD
BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SHARP CUTOFF IS EXPECTED IN THE PCPN SHIELD...WITH THE
BETTER QG OMEGA/LIFT OVER THE SE EXTREME OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY STAY DRY THE
ENTIRE EVENT...AND EVEN HAVE A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON THU. HIGHS WERE
FAVORED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...AS THERE IS
QUITE A RANGE BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE OVER RUNNING RAINFALL.
THE NAM MOS IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE E/SE ZONES EARLY THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U60S TO L70S NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES...AND U50S TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO L50S. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN BERKS SOUTH AND EAST...AND NOTHING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOTS OF FAIR AND PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GORGEOUS WEATHER WITH INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. H850 TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
+13C TO +15C RANGE. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO M50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS S/SE FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL PCPN...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
THE CANADIAN BORDER HAS RESULTED IN A DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING KGFL AND KALB. THE
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS WILL TOO. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE DATA THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS OF THIS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE/BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WITH LIGHT TO CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT KPSF AND
KGFL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AND SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THEY WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY DEW FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF THE RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THESE AREA. MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER.

RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW
SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.