Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 311752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE
COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THEREFORE THIS ISSUANCE REMAINS
JUST A WIND FORECAST FOR NOW. TIGHT GRADIENT/CAA BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE MORNING FROPA WILL ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE
RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF LUFKIN
AND NATCHITOCHES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA COVERING ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
INCLUDE LAFAYETTE AND POINTS EAST CONSIDERING THE UPDATED GFS MOS
DATA. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE VALID TIME TO AROUND SUNSET AS WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH.

MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE MID 70S FOR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKING GOOD WITH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY... NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICKUP AND WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX...NOW JUST
SOUTH OF I-20. ACROSS OUR REGION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S N OF I-10...WITH NEAR/LOWER 50S ALONG AND S OF I-10.

ALOFT...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY & SAT...ALLOWING FOR THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN OPEN
DOOR FROM CANADA FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOME OF COLD AIR TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE STRONG CAA EVENTS...WINDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS AREAS OF SE TX/S LA FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...MOST
NOTABLY TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR THIS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE AREA LAKES/BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWS FOR
SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA...TO NEAR 40/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONGER N
WINDS...TEMPS WILL FEEL SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.

WITH THE HIGH MAINLY SETTLING JUST NE OF THE REGION...LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS C LA...LIKELY TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO. THUS...A FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FURTHER S AND W...TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND
MON...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY TUE...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG
TERM SOLNS...WITH CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER
TX...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE BY WED. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND
PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES HERE. THUS...KEPT ONGOING
TRENDS OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COME IN) FOR THU.

DML

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE LAKES/BAYS...WITH
COASTAL WATERS IMPROVING FROM N TO S AS THE HIGH BUILDS S.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  44  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  72  36  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  74  40  59  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

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&&

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