Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.