Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$






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