Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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