Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 310507
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1107 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE SAT EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12KTS SAT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$






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