Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250256
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
956 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pres over the area is moving slowly east tonight. This is
allowing winds to become southerly again, resulting in a gradual
increase in low level moisture and moderating temperatures. Stlt
imagery shows just some thin high clouds streaming east over the
region, but otherwise skies remain mostly clear. Overnight lows
are not expected to be as cool as this morning, with temperatures
falling into the middle 50s north/around 60 south. Current fcst is
on track for tonight.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
00z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Light and variable to calm winds expected this evening and
overnight, with VFR conditions. S winds expected to increase after
15z and should be around 13-16 knots with gusts over 20 knots by
late morning into Tuesday afternoon.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...Very pleasant day across the forecast area with
temperatures returning to seasonal highs under sunny skies.
Surface analysis showing high pressure ridging through Louisiana.
Aloft, area is within a dry west to northwest flow behind exiting
southeast CONUS cyclone followed by modest ridging over the lower
Mississippi valley. Morning LCH sounding indicating a very dry
column in place with a precipitable water value coming in at a
meager 0.48 inches. Strong subsidence inversion was also noted
between 850-700 mb.

With surface high advancing east of the region will see warming
and moistening southerlies overspread the area through tonight.
Overnight lows will be several degrees above that of this
morning. With low level moisture deepening and increasing, a
return of clouds can be expected Tuesday but temperatures will
still manage to climb above the norm. Rain chances will return
once again Wednesday into Wednesday night as the next shortwave
trof advances across the plains with best rain chances arriving in
the overnight along an associated cold front sweeping across the
area. Better moisture profiles and lift will be in place over the
northern portion of the forecast area, hence higher pops. A
tightening pressure gradient will bring windy conditions for
Wednesday ahead of the boundary. While moisture remains limited
during this time-frame, sufficient shear will be on place for the
possibility of developing convection to reach severe criteria. SPC
has much of the area within a marginal risk for severe storms
with a slight risk over central Louisiana and interior southeast
Texas.

A short-lived cool down will then once again return to the area
for Thursday in the wake of the front. Strong southerlies then
become reestablished for the remainder of the week with moisture
and warmer temperatures on tap. A more robust system approaching
over the weekend will bring a chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms to the western portion of the area Saturday,
expanding to the entire area Sunday into Sunday night along and
ahead of another frontal passage.

MARINE...High pressure advancing east of the region will bring a
return of southerlies to the northwest gulf tonight. Winds will
strengthen moving through Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure
gradient tightens between this high pressure and low pressure and
accompanying cold front moving through the south plains. This
boundary will move across the gulf waters Wednesday night
accompanied by a few thunderstorms and followed by a strong
but brief offshore flow.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  82  67  84 /   0   0  10  30
LCH  60  81  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  57  81  68  84 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  61  81  73  82 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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