Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AREA AIRPORTS
ARE ALREADY IFR/LIFR SO THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE VISIBILITIES...
WHICH MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOGGY CONDITIONS CONFINED TO LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE FOG IS FORECASTED TO LIFT AROUND MID
MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER LONGER. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE
NO BETTER THAN IFR AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKING OF THE TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND/POP GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOWER ACADIANA WHERE IT
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL EXIT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. WITH THAT...THE END OF ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEA FOG HAS ENDED.
THE EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 INCHES...MORE THAN TWICE THE
STANDARD DEVIATION...ON THE 28/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT
KLCH...HAS BEEN REPLACED BY PWATS ACCORDING TO GPS-MET DATA OF
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.4 INCHES BY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OVER-
RUNNING RAINS...MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE
FROM 1/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND COOLER AIR
MASS...WILL BE A RATHER RAW SUNDAY...PROBABLY GOOD ONE TO STAY
INSIDE AND FIX SOME GUMBO AND READ A BOOK...OR WATCH FOOTBALL OR A
MOVIE ON THE TV.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL
BE A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE PRAIRIES ALONG THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL
SIDE...EVEN IF SOME SUNSHINE DOES APPEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY STILL ADD A FILTER TO FULL SUNSHINE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM IT...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE ON NEW YEARS EVE
NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE
RAIN DURING NEW YEARS DAY.

SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS RETURN OFF THE GULF BRINGS A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH AS IT PUSHES
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE OUTER WATERS BETWEEN
INTRACOASTAL CITY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...AND THE FRONT
SHOULD EXIT THIS AREA BY SUNRISE...DISPERSING ANY SEA FOG THAT
REMAINS. MODERATE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ON DOWN
INTO THE REGION. THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE
HIGH...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DURING THAT TIME. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  53  43  58  43  58 /  90  50  10   0   0
KBPT  51  42  58  43  58 /  90  30  10   0   0
KAEX  49  41  54  40  55 /  90  50  10  10   0
KLFT  57  45  59  44  58 /  70  50  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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