Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 202327
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
627 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible for the next 2-3
hours for mainly areas along and south of Interstate 10.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of this
evening with variable light winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows a broad sfc high over the Gulf coast states, with high
pressure aloft dominating most of the central and southern Plains.
Weak pressure gradient providing fairly light and variable winds
across the region. Radar showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the coastal waters and so far this afternoon south of I-10.
Further north, partly cloudy due to cumulus field over the region.
Temperatures are as expected in the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints
mainly in the lower to mid 70s, yielding heat index values in the
103-107 range.

With high pressure aloft expected to stay over the region through
Friday, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances expected to
remain 20-30% over SE Texas & Western Louisiana. The western edge
of an approaching upper level low pressure moving across the
northern Gulf will increase moisture and instability from the
east. This combined with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s,
could ignite increased thunderstorms by late afternoon over MS/SE
LA and move westward into Central and South Central Louisiana by
late afternoon, thus the higher chances there.

This increased moisture and instability with the upper low is expected
over most of the area by the weekend, reflected in the increased
pops to 50% for both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Gradual decrease
in shower and thunderstorm chances expected during the early part
of next week as the upper level low moves further westward into
Texas and weakens. At this time, looks like the upper ridging will
resume its grip over the region with isolated to at best scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

DML

MARINE...
Broad high pressure will continue over the Gulf through Saturday.
This will provide light winds and low seas. An increase in onshore
winds as well as seas can be expected Sunday into Monday as the
pressure gradient strengthens slightly. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will also increase during the weekend as low pressure
aloft moves west over the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  95  76  91 /  10  40  20  40
LCH  78  93  78  89 /  10  30  20  50
LFT  77  92  76  89 /  10  40  20  50
BPT  78  93  78  89 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



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