Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 311025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 3 TO 6
INCHES ACCORDING TO MRMS QPE. ACCURACY SHOULD BE GOOD SINCE BOTH
LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK RADARS WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL ZR FOR
THIS EVENT. RADARS ARE BACK TO THE DEFAULT CONTINENTAL ZR. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY...HELPED ALONG BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS
EVEDENTLY FED INTO OUR AREA ALOFT THANKS TO THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AS SUMMER WANES AS DOES THE SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER ISSUANCE OF FLOODING PRODUCTS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE CULPRITS REMAIN A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO
FOR LATE AUGUST...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW FORMS UP OVER THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE AND HELPS DRAW ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TODAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED TODAY. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD LAG BELOW NORMS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE AMPLE. THE DRIEST DAYS
THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  77  87  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  87  80  88  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KAEX  90  75  92  75  92 /  30  10  30  20  30
KLFT  90  76  87  77  90 /  20  10  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$






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