Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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357
FXUS64 KLCH 222217
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
417 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT has pushed well offshore with deep northerly flow throughout
the atmospheric column now in place, ushering a cool and dry
airmass into the region. Surface high pressure over the
Central/Southern Plains is forecast to continue sinking toward the
SE, which will result in decreasing surface winds tonight. Along
with continued cold/dry air advection and a clear sky, steadily
falling temperatures are expected after sunset. Though there is
some spread in the multitude of guidance available, sufficient
consensus exists to warrant a freeze warning for Central
Louisiana.

Cool temperatures will continue Thanksgiving Day, with another
chilly start expected on Friday as the center of the SFC high
settles directly into the area. The departure of the SFC high to
the east along with a light return flow ahead of an approaching
reinforcing front will result in moderation back to near seasonal
normals Friday and Friday night, and above normal on SAT. The front
is forecast to push through the area SAT night, knocking
temperatures back down to near seasonal normals SUN and SUN night.

Shallow return flow becomes established again by MON, with a
deeper SW flow gradually taking shape MON night into TUE as
ridging aloft translates overhead. Greater uncertainty enters the
forecast beyond this time with global models divergent on the
arrival/passage of another front.

13

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty north winds are likely to increase a bit just after dark,
but are then forecast to gradually decrease along with seas
generally from NW to SE during the overnight hours and through
Thursday and into Thursday night as surface high pressure settles
into the region. The marine hazards were adjusted to better fit
this scenario. A light onshore flow is expected to develop late
FRI as this high shifts off toward the east and a reinforcing cold
front approaches the area, with an offshore flow developing as
this front pushes through late SAT and continuing on SUN.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  29  60  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  38  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  38  60  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  39  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Thursday for LAZ027>033.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from Thursday morning through
     Thursday afternoon for GMZ472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight through
     Thursday morning for GMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ452-455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from Thursday morning through
     Thursday afternoon for GMZ455.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution Thursday morning for GMZ452.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ450.

&&

$$



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