Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182346
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours. S-SW breezes
will increase during the day Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level trough with some indications of a closed contour across
the Davis Mtns will drift eastward through the end of the work week.
 In turn, this will result in a return of modest ridging influence
into Friday.  A shortwave trough will break off of an upper low just
west of British Columbia and come ashore the California coast
late Friday. This trough will bring increasing southwesterly flow
into the region this weekend. The trough appears to cut off just
to our northwest on Sunday and become increasingly negatively
tilted. Northwest flow aloft returns for Monday become zonal by
Tuesday with a mild shortwave trough approaching Tuesday evening.
Wednesday should see the weather pattern dominated by ridging once
again.

For the next several days, the primary concern will be breezy
conditions coupled with dry conditions.  Out here, that spells the
potential for fire weather.  Looking at Friday, analyzing the
pattern and data, there are certainly indications for a breezy day
with speeds in upper teens.  RH values west of a line from Childress
to Brownfield should dip below 15%.  This has been, and continues to
look to be heading toward a Rangeland Fire Danger statement type
day.  A few red flag minutes are possible--especially in the
northwest.  Saturday is a bit less clear.  The southwesterly flow
aloft will increase as the aforementioned trough pushes through the
Las Vegas meridian.  Saturday will be quite dry once again and a bit
more breezy.  There`s good confidence that we`ll accumulate red flag
minutes but not that we will hit 180 minutes.  However, it is worth
noting that the day before the anticipated most windy day has often
been the most impactful for fire weather conditions.  As such,
Saturday demands some attention.  Sunday looks to be the windiest
day but a Pacific front will usher in cooler conditions which will
help moderate the RH compared to what it would otherwise.  Still, it
has a reasonable chance of making red flag. A cold front comes in
Sunday night with another surge anticipated on Tuesday at least
for the northern zones.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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