Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME STRATUS BUILDING INTO
THE ERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECTATION IS IT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH AND NE OF KCDS. OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES FROM
THE WEST AND NW...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCDS WHICH IS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ITSELF AND WILL THUS SEE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY ABOUT SIXTY MILES EAST OF KCDS.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING THAT CLOUD COVER TOWARD
KCDS...BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL HOLD ON VCNTY OF KCDS TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR. NO SIMILAR
CONCERN FOR KPVW OR KLBB EACH OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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