Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 090543 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1143 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS MAY
DROP OFF AT TIMES. THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS SEEN MONDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...GUSTS SHOULD BE 25KT OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON RADAR IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BIGGER
STORY FOR TODAY WAS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE LOW RH VALUES
ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS ROUTINELY GUST OVER 30KTS WITH RH VALUES
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. TWENTY FOOT
WIND VALUES WERE HELD JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND THUS HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING.

WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...YET STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY...AND MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT...IT IS BORDER LINE AND WILL DEFAULT TO THE MID SHIFT FOR
THE LATEST DATA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW ON TUESDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT...KEEPING THE WILD FIRE
THREAT ELEVATED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE TERM. GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN QUITE A BIT FASTER. FOR NOW
I AM GOING WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX
TO THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MOST LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THAT COULD CHANGE AS THE MODEL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN-SNOW AND SNOW-
SLEET MIX POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THIS COULD CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  24  41  22 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         54  29  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       38  23  39  21 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  28  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  28  48  26 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     51  30  48  29 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  27  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  23  40  20 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        44  25  41  22 /  20  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     48  29  47  27 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  25  47  25 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         45  24  44  21 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  28  44  25 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64


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