Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250933
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
333 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Early morning GOES-E data continues to show clouds streaming in from
the southwest across much of the eastern half of the state with
clearing skies and some fog developing across west/northwest
Arkansas. At the surface, the cold front has made 50-100 miles
east and south of the Arkansas border with precip just lingering
to the southeast of the forecast area behind the front.

For today, high pressure will begin to build in over the area before
shifting east later in the day. Dry conditions will be noted
across most of the state, with the exception of southeast
Arkansas. As the front stalls to the south of the state and a weak
disturbance moves across the ArkLaMiss region in the southwest
flow aloft later today, some rain will once again be possible
generally along and south of a Camden to De Witt line. Amounts
should add up to less than one quarter of an inch.

Rain chances should wrap up by Monday morning across the southeast
as the front to the south of the state gets a nudge toward the
Gulf and high pressure asserts itself back over the area.
Temperatures out there today will be near normal in the wake of
the cold front, but with mostly clear skies on Monday,
temperatures will warm up several degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

The period will begin with high pressure exiting to the east, and an
active southern stream driving a storm system toward Arkansas from
the southwest United States. The system will track across the
southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday/Wednesday
night, and will drag a cold front through the region.

Ahead of the front, showers/thunderstorms will become numerous
starting Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday.
Precipitation will be most likely over central/southern Arkansas.
data is showing another 1 to more than 3 inches of rain in this part
of the state, as well as the possibility of severe weather.

Given more heavy rain, a Flood Watch will become necessary preceding
the arrival of the system. Also, rivers are already running high,
and this will aggravate the situation.

The front will exit to the east on Thursday, with rain ending. The
week will finish with dry and slightly cooler weather.

Before the front gets here, temperatures will be above average.
Readings will be closer to seasonal behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  36  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         62  42  70  43 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       57  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  38  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     60  45  68  44 /  20  60   0   0
Mount Ida AR      60  36  66  42 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  58  34  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        58  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  40  65  42 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   60  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         59  36  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      60  39  65  42 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...67 / Long Term...46



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