Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301957
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LAST OF THE RAIN MOVED OUT OF ERN AR ARND MIDDAY. CANOPY OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS CONTD WORKING EWD OUT OF THE FA THIS AFTN...YIELDING
A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME DESTABILIZATION ACRS
WRN AR THIS AFTN JUST AHEAD OF A CDFNT IN THE VCNTY OF THE AR/OK
BRDR. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FNT
OVR THE WRN HALF OF OUR FA.

HI RES MODEL DATA CONTS TO INDC THAT SCTD CONVECTION WL DVLP AHEAD
OF THE FNTL BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN OVR WRN AR. ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET
BETTER ORGANIZED LATE THIS AFTN WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESP WHERE AFTN
HEATING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED.

THE ACTIVITY WL THEN TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN PART
OF THE STATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER TNGT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL SHIFT JUST SE OF AR BY SUN BEFORE
STALLING OUT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS IN MOST AREAS...WITH JUST A
SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR SERN AR. RAIN CHCS WL RETURN TO THE FA
FM THE SW SUN NGT AS A NEW STORM SYS FORMS OVR TX...ALONG THE
STALLED FNT. GOOD RAIN CHCS WL CONT ON MON...BUT WL SEE A GRADUAL
DCRS IN POPS FM THE NW MON AFTN AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS E OF AR. HIGH
PRES WL BRING DRIER CONDS TO THE REGION STARTING MON NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51


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