Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 021611 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF COAST
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AND SE AR
WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. SOME LIGHT RAIN DID MAKE IT TO SE
AR...BUT NOT HAS MOVED MAINLY EAST. FORECAST DOES HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OVER THE SE AND THE REST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.AVIATION...

PATCHY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LOT
OF HIGH CLOUDS/SOME MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 5 MPH TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

UPPER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CONVECTION AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREE WARMER FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO
START THE PERIOD...SOME CHANGES ARE COMING. A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL WOBBLE TOWARD ARKANSAS...AND
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
INITIALLY...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NONEXISTENT ON SUNDAY. BY
TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46


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